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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

At this point I think it can easily fall below major status before the stall comes to an end. After that who knows.

The weaker the better. The official NHC track center keeps it off the NC coast line. The 6z GFS shows it going on shore or skirting the coast line right up over the outer banks. Honestly, I think the outer banks are at most danger. The only good thing is this should be weaker (cat 1 or 2) and it should keep moving. also, the outer banks are no stranger to this level of a storm.    

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6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The weaker the better. The official NHC track center keeps it off the NC coast line. The 6z GFS shows it going on shore or skirting the coast line right up over the outer banks. Honestly, I think the outer banks are at most danger. The only good thing is this should be weaker (cat 1 or 2) and it should keep moving. also, the outer banks are no stranger to this level of a storm.    

Mets are “saying” cat 3 all the way up. Entering Nc coast area as a 3 and then a 2 by the time it gets to the OBX. Wral announced this on the morning news. They said the western eyewall could ride over Cape Fear and Cape Lookout. We will see. Who the heck knows at this point?  

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8 a.m. update has Dorian moving to the NW at 1 MPH

000
WTNT35 KNHC 031150
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN BEGINNING TO INCH NORTHWESTWARD...
...SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

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Just now, Regan said:

Mets are “saying” cat 3 all the way up. Entering Nc coast area as a 3 and then a 2 by the time it gets to the OBX. Wral announced this on the morning news. They said the western eyewall could ride over Cape Fear and Cape Lookout. We will see. 

This is not accurate. It is forecast to be at 100mph or low grade cat 2 once it reaches NC latitude

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2 hours ago, Scott747 said:

https://t.co/z4aVx6sfHm?amp=1

So Josh has been placed on a sort of missing/unaccounted for type of list. Somebody imo has jumped the gun and it makes it look more dire than it could be. After the unsubstantiated claim earlier by what appears to be some Twitter troll I'm guessing out of an abundance of caution somebody added him to the list.

Again his mo has generally been to be quiet for a few days before checking in. With a longer than normal duration event it shouldn't be surprising that it might take a little longer to reconnect.

I was texting with him about 30 min or so after his last tweet and giving him the latest recon data. Nothing to that point indicated any problems other than what he already posted and he seemed confident in the structure. He knew what was coming at him.

There is just quite a bit of unsubstantiated claims popping up. I'm guessing as the conditions alleviate as Dorian finally moves away that he will hopefully check in soon.

Mods feel free to move to the banter thread if needed.

Just to add to this^^. like we’ve all said, normal for Josh to be on the down low after these storms given infrastructure damages. Point is, no one has heard from him yet*. 

75E7BFB4-72A9-488D-BC61-7D46215274E3.png

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35 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This is not accurate. It is forecast to be at 100mph or low grade cat 2 once it reaches NC latitude

I can’t help what is on the news. Lol

”Hurricane Dorian could hit NC coast as Category 3 before weakening to Category 2” 

said it could make it to Wilmington as a low 3 and then quickly weaken. Like I said, who the heck knows? At this point it’s all ridiculous. Still talking about it regrouping some in the jet stream. Not gaining a lot. I took this word for word from the Mets on many stations from not just Nc. Again. We will see. People can argue about wind speed all the want, but until it’s up here, we won’t know. Anything can change for the better or worse. 

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As noted - latest advisory and Dorian is moving again at 1 mph.

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 031150
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN BEGINNING TO INCH NORTHWESTWARD...
...SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

Also a tweet from Levi -

 

hurricane-dorian-bahamas-09032019.gif

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1 hour ago, Jtm12180 said:

I’m pretty confident that I speak for everyone, including moderators, when I say that there’s no way this is “banter” worthy. Josh is someone we all respect and care about, and info regarding his safety and whereabouts belong on THIS thread! 

So while we all want Josh to be safe and sound, it is something that needs to be put into banter. this thread will derail real quick if too many try to figure out his status, where he was sheltered, etc. 

this is a storm mode thread, to discuss the storm. Josh chat needs to be in banter.

TIA

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Sounds like the video above was taking at this location. (Person who shot video has yet to reconnect with people down there). These people probably had to deal with conditions like this for hours on end when he stalled. Can’t imagine... surge to 10-11’ in this video

FFB98FB5-0A6D-46D1-A97B-80A1F2D97DCF.png

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25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Getting some obvious dry air entrainment now on the northern sides

Not sure I'm seeing the same. You mind showing everyone what you're looking at?

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Starting to lose definition on radar. Probably due to both upwelling and partial concentric ring around the old eye. It's starting to move, but it might be a tad too late to salvage the inner core. Time will tell this evening.

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There is still warm water ahead of the storm's path and it may use the gulf stream to help strenghten...but it's moving so slowly it is hard to tell exactly what it will do.  Next 12-24 hours will tell us if this storm came to play beyond the Bahamas.

image.thumb.png.d4e9e354fee4b6ae69161659acdb79b1.png

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Another extreme Dorian stat to add to the list.

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1168861172939948032

The shortest straight line distance traveled by a major (Category 3+) #hurricane in the Atlantic basin in a 24-hr period since 1950 is Hurricane Betsy in 1965 which traveled ~12 miles while making a clockwise loop. #HurricaneDorian is in 2nd place with ~25 miles in 24 hours.

the full list:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/09/Hurricane_Dorian_Records.pdf

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9 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Can a hurricane fall apart just like that, even if over fairly warm water?

Many times, the mid and upper level environments matter so much more vs oceanic heat content. So, if there is shear or dry air involved and the core falls apart...this can be tough to restart again...even over warm water. It may intensify some, but many times once it goes down this road..it can be a tough battle to reorganize and strengthen considerably. We'll see.

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Best chance is going to be late tonight through tomorrow. Outflow channel opens up to the north, SSTs jump and shear is low for a while. However, that's going to be dependent on how the inner core looks by that time.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Many times, the mid and upper level environments matter so much more vs oceanic heat content. So, if there is shear or dry air involved and the core falls apart...this can be tough to restart again...even over warm water. It may intensify some, but many times once it goes down this road..it can be a tough battle to reorganize and strengthen considerably. We'll see.

Thank you, that makes sense. Very helpful.

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9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Really starting to get that "half-a-cane" look. 

I guess this could increase the flood threat, as we saw with Matthew, where the heavy rain get's displaced to the North. Although I'm not sure what was the underlying cause.

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I guess this could increase the flood threat, as we saw with Matthew, where the heavy rain get's displaced to the North. Although I'm not sure what was the underlying cause.

It was caused by interaction with convergence to it's west (can't remember if it was a trough or what was approaching) and that enhanced the rainfall on the west side of the storm.  Some areas inland received much more rain than coastal areas. 

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They're forecasting Dorian to stay cat 3 today. I think that's highly unlikely given the condition it is in and increasing shear as it heads north. Wouldn't be shocked to see it at cat 2 at 11am advisory. Warm waters could rejuvenate it somewhat but not expecting much if anything 

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