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Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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55 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

It's hard to describe how amazing it is outside right now. Really fresh breeze, gusting to 30 mph or maybe a little more, and the bands of clouds racing and curving across the sky are incredible. I don't remember seeing anything quite like this before. Saw a band move in and the structure was spectacular, even though it had no precipitation anymore.  

Valuable lesson here...don't drop acid and track hurricanes 

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Could someone please post the latest model ensembles for Dorian? I dont have a link for that and have not seen anyone post them here most of this afternoon and evening. Thx!

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3 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Could someone please post the latest model ensembles for Dorian? I dont have a link for that and have not seen anyone post them here most of this afternoon and evening. Thx!

 

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We've had a very strong solar flare, Aurora visible down to N Indiana. That might explain the glitch in the satellite loop.  There's some funky subtle stuff going on with that 4 corners ridge.  Models haven't been handling it all that well over the last 48 hours.  Not big differences run to run but the current atmosphere just doesn't jive with the earlier runs.  Not saying it's gonna hit Fl. but some subtle changes in that thing could bring the Carolina's into play a lot more than currently forecast, or could kick it OTS a lot sooner.  I don't know, I never trust a stalled cane or models with a stalled cane.

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One thing I was somewhat surprised by with Hurricane Irma was the lack of "scouring bull-dozer" type damage in the U.S.V.I, especially considering the winds in Irma were stronger than Andrew. I understand Andrew's bulldozing was mostly mobile homes and the 1992 type codes were much weaker than what coastal communities have today.

However, Dorian seems to have "bull-dozer scouring" type of damage in Abaco Island, which makes me think that #1. Perhaps Cat 5 storms that are deepening (Andrew, Dorian) cause far, far greater wind damage than steady state Category 5s (Irma). and #2. Dorian's slow movement caused prolonged periods of sustained Cat 5 winds. 

Either way, this storm scoured Abaco.

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5 minutes ago, NoOneAtAll (NOAA) said:

It seems all the models are in agreement.  Dorian will be on my doorstep Saturday and, IIRC, will still be a hurricane.  My location is lakeside on the Bras d'Or Lakes near Baddeck, Cape Breton Island. 

When the neon green has pretty much gotten with the program, that's agreement.

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1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

One thing I was somewhat surprised by with Hurricane Irma was the lack of "scouring bull-dozer" type damage in the U.S.V.I, especially considering the winds in Irma were stronger than Andrew. I understand Andrew's bulldozing was mostly mobile homes and the 1992 type codes were much weaker than what coastal communities have today.

However, Dorian seems to have "bull-dozer scouring" type of damage in Abaco Island, which makes me think that #1. Perhaps Cat 5 storms that are deepening (Andrew, Dorian) cause far, far greater wind damage than steady state Category 5s (Irma). and #2. Dorian's slow movement caused prolonged periods of sustained Cat 5 winds. 

Either way, this storm scoured Abaco.

  Storms in a strengthening phase are far more insane as the winds tend to mix down to the surface proper. I experienced Katrina as a strengthening Cat 1 on the east coast of Fl. and Hugo 3 miles inland in Mt. Pleasant SC. as neutral to weakening Cat 4. I can honestly tell you, even though I was in the southern eyewall of Hugo, Katrina was one of the scariest quick hitting violent tropical systems I've ever experienced.  I'll take a weakening Cat 4 over a rapidly intensifying Cat 1 or 2 any day.

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53 minutes ago, NoOneAtAll (NOAA) said:

It seems all the models are in agreement.  Dorian will be on my doorstep Saturday and, IIRC, will still be a hurricane.  My location is lakeside on the Bras d'Or Lakes near Baddeck, Cape Breton Island. 

It's supposed to transition to extratropical by the time it gets up there but it'll still be pretty formidable I would think. I'm wondering if it ends up worse than Juan, Igor etc.

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Absolutely the worst case scenario for the Northern Bahama Islands. A strong CAT 5 slamming right into Abaco island straight from the water, moving slow at that point to boot. Then a complete stall over Grand Bahama Island for what? 36+ hours straight?

That is unprecedented and the damage will be unprecedented when it finally moves away, the surge retreats and we see exactly what it has done.

Sadly, the death toll will end up being in the dozens if not hundreds based on the few videos that have came out already. Hopefully Josh really is ok.

Amazing that the thing put on the brakes 80 miles away from the Florida coast and spared them. Sadly, one areas gain in this is another areas loss as it just decided to sit over the Northern Bahamas for 2 days as a CAT 5/CAT 4 and cause unprecedented damage and many deaths.

Hopefully we won't see something like this (major hurricane stalling over a relatively populated area) for a very long time!

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https://t.co/z4aVx6sfHm?amp=1

So Josh has been placed on a sort of missing/unaccounted for type of list. Somebody imo has jumped the gun and it makes it look more dire than it could be. After the unsubstantiated claim earlier by what appears to be some Twitter troll I'm guessing out of an abundance of caution somebody added him to the list.

Again his mo has generally been to be quiet for a few days before checking in. With a longer than normal duration event it shouldn't be surprising that it might take a little longer to reconnect.

I was texting with him about 30 min or so after his last tweet and giving him the latest recon data. Nothing to that point indicated any problems other than what he already posted and he seemed confident in the structure. He knew what was coming at him.

There is just quite a bit of unsubstantiated claims popping up. I'm guessing as the conditions alleviate as Dorian finally moves away that he will hopefully check in soon.

Mods feel free to move to the banter thread if needed.

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The 5 am update FWIW (still stationary and higher end CAT 3) -

Quote
687 
WTNT35 KNHC 030853
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...
...CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

 

093608_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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1 hour ago, Scott747 said:

https://t.co/z4aVx6sfHm?amp=1

So Josh has been placed on a sort of missing/unaccounted for type of list. Somebody imo has jumped the gun and it makes it look more dire than it could be. After the unsubstantiated claim earlier by what appears to be some Twitter troll I'm guessing out of an abundance of caution somebody added him to the list.

Again his mo has generally been to be quiet for a few days before checking in. With a longer than normal duration event it shouldn't be surprising that it might take a little longer to reconnect.

I was texting with him about 30 min or so after his last tweet and giving him the latest recon data. Nothing to that point indicated any problems other than what he already posted and he seemed confident in the structure. He knew what was coming at him.

There is just quite a bit of unsubstantiated claims popping up. I'm guessing as the conditions alleviate as Dorian finally moves away that he will hopefully check in soon.

Mods feel free to move to the banter thread if needed.

I’m pretty confident that I speak for everyone, including moderators, when I say that there’s no way this is “banter” worthy. Josh is someone we all respect and care about, and info regarding his safety and whereabouts belong on THIS thread! 

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40 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said:

I’m pretty confident that I speak for everyone, including moderators, when I say that there’s no way this is “banter” worthy. Josh is someone we all respect and care about, and info regarding his safety and whereabouts belong on THIS thread! 

Just as a note - there was an article about this school as a shelter (where Josh was to be staying) a few days ago - http://www.tribune242.com/news/2019/aug/31/taking-shelter-abaco-residents-prepare-dorian/

This is a pic from outside of the school -

FE4B8637-572C-46F5-A907-7EBF97CDCC77_t67

One of the classrooms -

657D04F7-F526-4B40-9326-1ECE00BCCA3B_t67

I think some of the last info from him was that he was with a small group (most likely in one of the classrooms) at the school and based on this article, they were grouping people (about 200 or so at the time) into the classrooms (the older folk closer to the bathrooms).  This school had been used as a shelter during Hurricane Floyd.

ETA - screenshot of where the school is located on Abaco -

central-abaco-primary-school-map-snapshot-dorian-sm-09032019.PNG

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I am not very confident in the models at this point.  They didn’t predict the 36 hour stall.  And they keep saying it will move but it has not.  

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At this point I think it can easily fall below major status before the stall comes to an end. After that who knows.

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7 am update (still stationary forward motion but drifted north a bit and pressure increased by 2 mb since 5 am update) -

Quote
000
WTNT65 KNHC 031058
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
700 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...SOUTHERN EYEWALL OF DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 150 mph
- Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
- Extreme flooding from up to 30 inches of rain

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through today.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

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