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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

 

received_661899400885757.jpeg

For accuracy sake, these reports are unconfirmed and second hand. I was hoping someone here directly spoke with Josh or someone who is with him. I don't think I've ever seen a category 5 hurricane's eye sit right over someplace for 36 hours before; hence all of our concerns for his well being.

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Has Freeport had any hurricane winds, I know severe storm surge but they have been on Western eyewall all day wondering any wind reports.

They’ve absolutely had/are currently having hurricane winds

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Has Freeport had any hurricane winds, I know severe storm surge but they have been on Western eyewall all day wondering any wind reports.

Have you not seen the videos? Absolutely ripping winds and massive storm surge

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Your own logic just got busted by that loop... The trof is back up near Savannah

The outflow is the key. There is a streamer of outflow that has been caught by the baroclinic zone. The hurricane is now deriving energy by pushing outflow into the baroclinic zone, which acts as a vent, and now that the vent is open eventually all of the outflow will shift into it.

This effect amplifies the trough and the downstream ridge, and is a critical reason as to why the trough will come south. 

 

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It&#39;s getting healthier with the expanded outflow.<br>Core ring is deepening. Convection in the tail regions. This thing is ridiculous. <a href="https://t.co/LKA2L6MZrV">pic.twitter.com/LKA2L6MZrV</a></p>&mdash; crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) <a href="https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168720456301654016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 3, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Maybe this is what he is saying:

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168720456301654016?s=20

 

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2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It&#39;s getting healthier with the expanded outflow.<br>Core ring is deepening. Convection in the tail regions. This thing is ridiculous. <a href="https://t.co/LKA2L6MZrV">pic.twitter.com/LKA2L6MZrV</a></p>&mdash; crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) <a href="https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168720456301654016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 3, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Maybe this is what he is saying:

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168720456301654016?s=20

 

It's regaining strength?

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15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I agree. Started saying so 30 years ago and got ridiculed.

They  are an engine, almost animal qualities, and they won’t run themselves over or into land unless the steering winds compel it. No steering winds, trace the coastline.

What was that one 5-10 years ago that just perfectly traced entirety of Jamaica coastline.?

 

 

Years ago, Joe. B said this is what caused Isidore to hug the coast of the Yucatan for so long.

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12 minutes ago, TriPol said:

For accuracy sake, these reports are unconfirmed and second hand. I was hoping someone here directly spoke with Josh or someone who is with him. I don't think I've ever seen a category 5 hurricane's eye sit right over someplace for 36 hours before; hence all of our concerns for his well being.

I'm skeptical.

He usually gives me a thumbs up right before or soon after getting back on Twitter/Facebook in these bigger events.

It's normal for him to decompress for a few days before communicating again. Granted Dorian was a different animal.

 

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I don't feel like the reports on Josh are accurate.  The guy that is reporting is a follower like the rest of us reporting third party info.  Nobody close to Josh has reported anything.

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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Confirms open eyewall

How does a wind field image show the breakdown of the overall wall structure?  The wall is still very present.  If anything, the wall is becoming protected again.  

 

Capture.PNG

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9 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

How does a wind field image show the breakdown of the overall wall structure?  The wall is still very present.  If anything, the wall is becoming protected again.  

 

Capture.PNG

Do you see a South shift of the eye or is it tightening up? 

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The eye had been getting ragged starting around an hour or two ago, but has cleaned itself up nicely in the past 15 minutes or so, smaller than before on IR and overcast in the eye. The broken eyewall earlier likely spread energy outward explaining the lower winds and pressure in the eye, but resulting in much higher winds outside the eye/eyewall region. This increases the potential impact on Florida once it starts moving again.

Great IR loop, I usually set it to 40 frames (3.25 hours): https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband13.html

 

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Just now, Sportybx said:

Any chance this thing still moves west into Florida around the palm beach port lucie area ? 

Highly unlikely...but this does have a mind of its own.  But all accounts and cones steer this bad boy to the north.

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4 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Any chance this thing still moves west into Florida around the palm beach port lucie area ? 

West Palm Beach area is a fair amount outside the cone of uncertainty, in which 60-70 percent of tropical cyclones are expected to follow.

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It's hard to describe how amazing it is outside right now. Really fresh breeze, gusting to 30 mph or maybe a little more, and the bands of clouds racing and curving across the sky are incredible. I don't remember seeing anything quite like this before. Saw a band move in and the structure was spectacular, even though it had no precipitation anymore.  

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