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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Upwelling is probably the biggest reason for the weakening today, but as the wind field expands the gradient is reducing. I suspect this is no longer a tightly wound core, but friction from land interaction with Florida could tighten things back up tonight. 

I think also the land interaction with the core has hindered intensity and when it fully passes the Bahamas, some restrengthening may occur. 

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Seems like Dorian maxed out its KE potential, and with the overall wind field expanding after the ERC, it would be impossible to have more air moving as quickly as before with the same amount of energy available to it. That would explain weakening far better than relatively limited upwelling in warm, shallow waters.

Perhaps I'm wrong on this, though.

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think also the land interaction with the core has hindered intensity and when it fully passes the Bahamas, some restrengthening may occur. 

I know the hrrr isn't a hurricane model, but its short range capabilities show that nicely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019090218&fh=7

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think also the land interaction with the core has hindered intensity and when it fully passes the Bahamas, some restrengthening may occur. 

It’s more likely the upwelling. It’s been stationery for hours. 

Problem is, when it gains latitude it encounters more shear. All the hurricane modeling show a gradual decline in strength.

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What people call upwelling is really heat content depletion. There has been some upwelling, but there's not much to upwell if the water is shallow. The Bahama banks are less than 20ft deep where Dorian is.

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It still looks pretty damn impressive to me. Yes, max winds have decreased quite a bit but the wind field has expanded significantly as well. I would not be surprised by some strengthening as it moves away from Bahamas. 

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1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Someone asked The Weather Channel if Dorian could restrengthen after it passes the Bahamas and their response was it would gradually weaken as the cyclone tracks north.  What I find interesting about that is both the GFS and the hwrf restrengthen Dorian until it passes approximately the latitude of Jacksonville.  What do others think?

The apparent pressure drop on the models could also be due to the models picking up on an expanding storm, not necessarily a strengthening one.  At least I believe that is what some mets have said in the past.

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Dare County NC (Outerbanks, Kill devil hills, kitty hawk) Mandatory evacuation starting 12 noon on tuesday for al visitors

Hyde County NC (Ocracoke) Mandatory evacuations starting 5 am Tuesday for all visitors

 

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Been checking reports from twitter, etc. Absolutely incredible surge in Freeport. People are trapped in attics and on roofs. Often islands are less vulnerable to surge as the water can go around but the track and slow speed allowed water to just keep piling up on the north side of the island where the shape of the land helps to funnel the water. While Abaco had the severe wind damage, the winds were probably down a bit before eye wall got to Freeport. The real story there is the water.

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9 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Been checking reports from twitter, etc. Absolutely incredible surge in Freeport. People are trapped in attics and on roofs. Often islands are less vulnerable to surge as the water can go around but the track and slow speed allowed water to just keep piling up on the north side of the island where the shape of the land helps to funnel the water. While Abaco had the severe wind damage, the winds were probably down a bit before eye wall got to Freeport. The real story there is the water.

Hopefully they brought a saw up there. 

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5pm update and Dorian has slowed to a stop and is now officially "stationary" -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 022043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN MOVING LITTLE WHILE THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

 

154449_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-5pm.png

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5 minutes ago, NCWX said:

Wonder what the next flow of models will show with it being stationary?

Was wondering that myself. What if missed the trough and doesn’t get pulled north.  

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3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I know it's long range, but the core isn't looking so hot, presumably from dry air.

KAMX20190902211032.png

Doubt its much dry air and just lack of heat to spawn convection.  Its not going to get much better until it moves to deeper water and north and west of Grand Bahama.

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Was wondering that myself. What if missed the trough and doesn’t get pulled north.  

Been wondering that to

 

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19 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Looks like a wobble NE

I think we need to cool it with the frame-by-frame "oh it looks like it wobbled this way"--It doesn't mean anything until there is an actual trend over a longer durations (like a couple hours)

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12 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I know it's long range, but the core isn't looking so hot, presumably from dry air.

KAMX20190902211032.png

Could be getting ready to another ERC and become a big eyed cane.  Latest HDOB's are kind of hinting at that.

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17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Was wondering that myself. What if missed the trough and doesn’t get pulled north.  

This isn’t going to happen... 

- signed every single NWP model. 

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It's looking pretty disorganized on radar now. I don't see it getting its act back together. 

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