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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Recon's first pass--NW to SE

Extrapolated pressure--939.3mb (some data missing so it could be slightly lower)
Peak SFMR--96kts
Peak FL Wind--129kts

Definitely some text data missing here, so we'll see what the dropsondes say. 

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

That's a significant rise in pressure this morning.

Yeah. The FL winds make me think that there's the possibility it hasn't actually weakened that much with regard to wind, but we need to see more recon data. 

We also need to see if this is a situation where the pressure is currently rising, or it rose over the last few hours and we're at steady state or a slight drop. 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

That's a significant rise in pressure this morning.

Yup...the interaction with Grand Bahama has taken its toll.  It maintained Category 5 status for a long time though...most impressive system.  But just like with any storm...he’s reached his peak.  

 

I don’t see a Return to Cat 5 happening.  Still a very formidable storm, but not the record breaking storm he was yesterday.  And he won’t regain the steam he lost this morning imo.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

In the SE eyewall there is an unflagged SFMR of 121kts. FL wind of 126kts. 

Well 121 kts is about 139-140 mph...still a powerhouse for sure.  

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Floyd briefly re-intensified to 115 kts over the Gulf Stream, but I think a steady state/slow weakening is likely the next 36 hrs.

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Radar data shows a nice 80 kt rotation...

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* At 109 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Wellington, moving south at 45
  mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Coral Springs, West Palm Beach, Pompano Beach,
  Plantation, Sunrise, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Boynton Beach,
  Delray Beach, Tamarac, Wellington, Margate, Lighthouse Point,
  Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Highland Beach, Lauderhill, Coconut Creek,
  Oakland Park and North Lauderdale.
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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well 121 kts is about 139-140 mph...still a powerhouse for sure.  

 

4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Floyd briefly re-intensified to 115 kts over the Gulf Stream, but I think a steady state/slow weakening is likely the next 36 hrs.

The only way I see Dorian regaining some strength is if it is able to stay far enough offshore to minimize land interaction with the core near Florida, and pick up a little speed to prevent upwelling.

I agree with others that we've seen the peak here, and any intensification would be fleeting as it approaches higher shear and a possible NC landfall. 

Note that the HWRF only has gradual weakening and even with a landfall this is still a hurricane early Friday verbatim. 

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31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was feeling that way last Thursday...once I saw the ensembles with the turn north off the coast of FL., that was the sign at least for me, that this wasn’t going to be major hit for the mainland US.  

 

Now perhaps I’ll be proven wrong, but it’s looking less like a major hit for the east coast imo.  

 

At this point, I agree. I had thought that maybe models were rushing the recession of the ridge, but it became apparent late last night and early this morning that that was not the case when westward momentum of Dorian halted.

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2pm update along with an estimate of potential surge amounts along the FL east coast (since there was a new moon a few days ago, the tides may still be running a little higher than normal anyway) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 021753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE
OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

 

145744_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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939mb in the center with an 11kt wind per dropsonde

Here's the first VDM. Eye size has nearly doubled from yesterday. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:13Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:20:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.84N 78.40W
B. Center Fix Location: 103 statute miles (166 km) to the E (85°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,567m (8,422ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 11kts (From the SE at 13mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 17:16:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 112kts (From the NE at 128.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 17:16:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 121kts (139.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix at 17:26:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 218° at 129kts (From the SW at 148.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 17:25:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 129kts (~ 148.5mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 17:25:00Z

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12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Ill advised  to state all westward movement or potential of has halted.

It’s pretty clear at this point it is not landfalling in FL.

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3 minutes ago, FatherNature said:

Anyone have the model track for 12z Euro?

Offshore until a close pass or possible landfall at Cape Lookout.

Forward speed is really booking it at that point. Won’t be in NC long.

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3 minutes ago, FatherNature said:

Anyone have the model track for 12z Euro?

It’s a touch further west through 48.  Right off Canaveral.  Then making possible OBX landfall at 96

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46 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

More confirmation of at least an estimated 15 ft - 20ft surge at Freeport -

 

Wow, there must to be a new channel cut through the city, and several other places on the island.

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