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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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Pretty sure the GFS has a tendency to erroneously bury TCs into subtropical ridges, or at least the OGGFS did. This, in combination with the fact that it's somewhat of an outlier from the consensus, leaves me skeptical. 

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3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I favor Carolinas over Florida, right now I think it parallels Florida coast before heading NE

The only model that showed this was the GFS, and now the 12z run is bridging the gap with the Euro and taking it into FL. Anything is still possible this far out, but the risk hasn't increased for the Carolinas yet. It could definitely come over land and eject over the Carolinas as Irma and Michael did. Matthew like track might still be on the table too.

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3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Whose wishcasting?

Looks like the posts were removed. There were two posts in succession stating no way to the models and proclaiming a Carolina crusher without any model guidance cited.

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3 minutes ago, Seminole said:

48 hours of grief for the Space Coast with that 12z GFS run. Really no where for Dorian to go and it just crawls. 

What is it recently with these storms just stalling and spinning out dumping so much rain? 12z GFS stalls it over NE FL, then SE GA and then it dissipates as it moves towards AL over the span of a few days.

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3 minutes ago, Seminole said:

48 hours of grief for the Space Coast with that 12z GFS run. Really no where for Dorian to go and it just crawls. 

LOTS of people live between Daytona and Jacksonville. Palm Coast to St. Augustine has me particularly concerned after this run.

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Just now, scwxguy said:

How does that play into loss of steering of these systems? 

No way of knowing if climate change has anything to do with this.  I guess it’s possible one could argue that insane ridging in the Atlantic could be a product of the ice melt and what not near the poles causing the abnormal NAO but it’s all guessing 

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The UKMET model tracks have consistently pushed the storm south as it nears FL.  Is it the outlier this time that's missing something (not the norm for them) or is there something everyone else is missing (a la Sandy)?

 

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2 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

The UKMET model tracks have consistently pushed the storm south as it nears FL.  Is it the outlier this time that's missing something (not the norm for them) or is there something everyone else is missing (a la Sandy)?

 

The UKMET has recently nailed several storms in the 3-5 day range including Irma 

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9 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

The UKMET model tracks have consistently pushed the storm south as it nears FL.  Is it the outlier this time that's missing something (not the norm for them) or is there something everyone else is missing (a la Sandy)?

 

It also has Dorian weakening on approach before strengthening to "just" 990 at landfall vs. 964 for GFS. 

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4 minutes ago, jpljr77 said:

It also has Dorian weakening on approach before strengthening to "just" 990 at landfall vs. 964 for GFS. 

nah...don't use the UQAM smoothed output, it doesn't show TC intensity properly. This is the TC text file. 

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 20.0N  67.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 29.08.2019   24  20.7N  67.5W     1007            38
    0000UTC 30.08.2019   36  22.7N  68.5W     1000            45
    1200UTC 30.08.2019   48  24.3N  70.1W      992            52
    0000UTC 31.08.2019   60  25.6N  71.9W      984            63
    1200UTC 31.08.2019   72  26.3N  73.9W      980            68
    0000UTC 01.09.2019   84  26.6N  75.7W      975            69
    1200UTC 01.09.2019   96  27.0N  77.1W      973            72
    0000UTC 02.09.2019  108  27.0N  78.1W      968            71
    1200UTC 02.09.2019  120  26.9N  78.8W      958            78
    0000UTC 03.09.2019  132  26.6N  79.5W      957            85
    1200UTC 03.09.2019  144  26.9N  80.2W      954            74

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44 minutes ago, scwxguy said:

What is it recently with these storms just stalling and spinning out dumping so much rain? 12z GFS stalls it over NE FL, then SE GA and then it dissipates as it moves towards AL over the span of a few days.

Weak steering currents. Pretty textbook with the blocking ridge. Some might pull out the climate change tag, but nothing atypical about a hurricane landfall in Florida in late August, early September. Been happening since before recorded history. 

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12z HWRF completely misses mainland PR with the core, eye passes very close to Flamenco, Culebra, Puerto Rico.

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In the past hour or so, it appears as though deeper convection is starting to fire around the center of circulation on all sides.  The GOES 16 water vapor imagery also appears to show the drier air getting expelled from the center of Dorian.

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3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

I come here for weather, not simpleton remarks. 

cool. add more then and stop insulting others. 

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That blowup of convection around the center managed to wrap around and expel dry air pretty efficiently. On San Juan Radar looks like a potential landfall on St. Thomas?

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3 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

That blowup of convection around the center managed to wrap around and expel dry air pretty efficiently. On San Juan Radar looks like a potential landfall on St. Thomas?

Looks like they are getting the Northern eyewall but the center should stay offshore. 

TIST: 

Wind Speed E 33 G 59 mph

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