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WxWatcher007

Category Five Hurricane Dorian

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11 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Does it count as an official landfall since it was already extratropical when it made landfall?

Probably not, as Sandy does not count as an official landfall in New Jersey.

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31 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Did anyone actually verify 100 mph at least in a gust on land?

NOAA has a buoy at Halifax - 44258 (I think the landfall was something like 15 miles from there) - https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44258

Was not seeing any 100 mph gusts in their obs list but there were 54/56/58/60 mph gusts just prior and there was nothing registered in the landfall timeframe (not sure if that was an "eye" or faulty reading... However the most striking in that location was the huge storm surge - the buoy literally reporting up to 31 ft wave heights! :yikes:

buoy-44258-halifax-harbour-800pm-09072019.PNG

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Rarely mentioned is the sheer size of Dorian now, which now has a "hurricane force" windfield diameter of more than 230 miles, with a "tropical storm force" windfield diameter of 620 miles.

That is a big cyclone, whether it's "tropical" now or not. The destruction is spread over a much larger area now than in the Bahamas, of course at much less intensity.

I'm waiting to see those "total storm energy content" numbers at various stages of Dorian's existence [or whatever the scientific name is]. The post-storm official analysis reports should be interesting [assuming 'nobody' jacks around with them...].

Dorian's current Nova Scotia energy content might be similar to it's Bahamas days, just spread out more.

I assume that at Dorian's present rapid forward movement speed [~30mph], that that 'additive effect' on wind speeds in certain quadrants becomes effective too. So the wind damage potential is enhanced.

"000
WTNT35 KNHC 072346
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA...
...VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Bar Harbor to Eastport Maine
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
...
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was estimated near latitude 45.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward near 30 mph (48 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.  After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian should continue to move
over Nova Scotia during the next few hours, then move over the Gulf
of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight.  The cyclone
should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern
Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts, and these winds are occuring primarily over water. The
post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple
of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by
Sunday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km).  Hart Island, Nova Scotia,
recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

...
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila  "
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At this point I am not seeing any gusts close to hurricane force outside of exposed coastal locations. Gusts do not appear comparable to Juan at least near Halifax. But the wind energy is spread over a wider area than Juan, which was still Tropical at landfall.

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19 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

Rarely mentioned is the sheer size of Dorian now, which now has a "hurricane force" windfield diameter of more than 230 miles, with a "tropical storm force" windfield diameter of 620 miles.

That is a big cyclone, whether it's "tropical" now or not. The destruction is spread over a much larger area now than in the Bahamas, of course at much less intensity.

I'm waiting to see those "total storm energy content" numbers at various stages of Dorian's existence [or whatever the scientific name is]. The post-storm official analysis reports should be interesting [assuming 'nobody' jacks around with them...].

Dorian's current Nova Scotia energy content might be similar to it's Bahamas days, just spread out more.

I assume that at Dorian's present rapid forward movement speed [~30mph], that that 'additive effect' on wind speeds in certain quadrants becomes effective too. So the wind damage potential is enhanced.

"000
WTNT35 KNHC 072346
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA...
...VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Bar Harbor to Eastport Maine
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
...
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was estimated near latitude 45.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward near 30 mph (48 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.  After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian should continue to move
over Nova Scotia during the next few hours, then move over the Gulf
of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight.  The cyclone
should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern
Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts, and these winds are occuring primarily over water. The
post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple
of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by
Sunday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km).  Hart Island, Nova Scotia,
recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

...
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila  "TrBetween 

Between Dorian  and Gabrielle there will be some changes in the NH weather  pattern next few weeks. Major changes  over the Atlantic atm.

 

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One thing I like to do as an epic storm like Dorian nears its ultimate fate as they all do, is go back to page one of the original thread of the storm and re-live the many posts and thoughts from the beginning, including my own flawed and rare light bulb moments.  From us armchair storm junkies to the more proficient and knowledgeable storm junkies to the pro forecasters and mets, it's always interesting and, I think, kinda fun to go back to page 1 and relive the entirety of a significant system.  Not to mention every NHC update and virtually every model run is in the thread.  I mean the first 6 or 7 pages of this thread Dorian was toast shredded by Hispaniola.  I dunno, it's one of the things I like to do, especially with a storm that 6 or 7 pages into it it was toast then it blows everyone away and turns into a Dorian or a Michael.  If there's anyone interested in learning about these things just go back and read the 145 pages of this thread, for god's sake, it's all in there, the good the bad the ugly and ultimately the truth.  I love it.

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2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

One thing I like to do as an epic storm like Dorian nears its ultimate fate as they all do, is go back to page one of the original thread of the storm and re-live the many posts and thoughts from the beginning, including my own flawed and rare light bulb moments.  From us armchair storm junkies to the more proficient and knowledgeable storm junkies to the pro forecasters and mets, it's always interesting and, I think, kinda fun to go back to page 1 and relive the entirety of a significant system.  Not to mention every NHC update and virtually every model run is in the thread.  I mean the first 6 or 7 pages of this thread Dorian was toast shredded by Hispaniola.  I dunno, it's one of the things I like to do, especially with a storm that 6 or 7 pages into it it was toast then it blows everyone away and turns into a Dorian or a Michael.  If there's anyone interested in learning about these things just go back and read the 145 pages of this thread, for god's sake, it's all in there, the good the bad the ugly and ultimately the truth.  I love it.

Gonna add some more to it (2 am & 5 am updates) :lol:-

Quote
897 
WTNT35 KNHC 080551
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 60A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...DORIAN BRINGING HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS TO A LARGE PORTION OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.5 61.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF MADGALEN ISLANDS
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 080839
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POWERFUL DORIAN HEADING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.5N 61.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM W OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF MADGALEN ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

 

 

G16_sector_can_GEOCOLOR_12fr_20190908-0504-geocolor-505am-09082019.gif

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Was checking the obs overnight in Nova Scotia, winds on the backside looks to be about as strong. The western wind direction was over land more which probably kept them down a bit. Just checked the power outage map, almost 80% of Nova Scotia and PEI are without power.

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11 hours ago, eyewall said:

Did anyone actually verify 100 mph at least in a gust on land?

I believe Inverness was close in terrain enhanced Les Suetes. The highest marine exposure wind gust i saw was 88 mph at the entrance to Halifax Harbor. The winds that NHC referenced were sting jet induced and offshore south of the hurricane. I dont think they affected the province in a robust way.  

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I thought the multiple instances and locations of sustained 100+ km/h was impressive at such a high latitude and with chilly water. Thats going to do plenty of damage to deciduous trees and the power grid. 

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https://mobile.twitter.com/AnthonyFarnell/status/1170657913490137089

Dorian the most impactful storm in Nova Scotia Powers history”.

still reporting almost 400,000 customers in the dark with over 3,000 individual outages to repair.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1170475607798505476

8 PM pressure reading at #Halifax Stanfield Airport is the lowest ever recorded in September by almost 9 mb! Sea-level pressure is roughly 17 mb higher than those numbers. #NSstorm #DorianNS
 
 
Image
 
 

 

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnthonyFarnell/status/1170657913490137089

Dorian the most impactful storm in Nova Scotia Powers history”.

still reporting almost 400,000 customers in the dark with over 3,000 individual outages to repair.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1170475607798505476

8 PM pressure reading at #Halifax Stanfield Airport is the lowest ever recorded in September by almost 9 mb! Sea-level pressure is roughly 17 mb higher than those numbers. #NSstorm #DorianNS
 
 
Image
 
 

 

Wow.  The storm that is an Energizer bunny.

It's still getting updates by NHC.  8am update (starting to back more to the north and now going NNE) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 081151
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 61A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
800 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...CENTER OF DORIAN PASSING EAST OF ANTICOSTI ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.4N 60.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF HEATH POINT ANTICOSTI ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NW OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

 

115514_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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6 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

One thing I like to do as an epic storm like Dorian nears its ultimate fate as they all do, is go back to page one of the original thread of the storm and re-live the many posts and thoughts from the beginning, including my own flawed and rare light bulb moments.  From us armchair storm junkies to the more proficient and knowledgeable storm junkies to the pro forecasters and mets, it's always interesting and, I think, kinda fun to go back to page 1 and relive the entirety of a significant system.  Not to mention every NHC update and virtually every model run is in the thread.  I mean the first 6 or 7 pages of this thread Dorian was toast shredded by Hispaniola.  I dunno, it's one of the things I like to do, especially with a storm that 6 or 7 pages into it it was toast then it blows everyone away and turns into a Dorian or a Michael.  If there's anyone interested in learning about these things just go back and read the 145 pages of this thread, for god's sake, it's all in there, the good the bad the ugly and ultimately the truth.  I love it.

I do that too... Did it with Irma, Florence, and Micheal and have already done it with Dorian

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnthonyFarnell/status/1170657913490137089

Dorian the most impactful storm in Nova Scotia Powers history”.

still reporting almost 400,000 customers in the dark with over 3,000 individual outages to repair.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1170475607798505476

8 PM pressure reading at #Halifax Stanfield Airport is the lowest ever recorded in September by almost 9 mb! Sea-level pressure is roughly 17 mb higher than those numbers. #NSstorm #DorianNS
 
 
Image
 
 

 

 

It is going to be a long haul to get everybody back up.  My sister in-law is in Dartmouth and said there are trees down on every street she has walked down.

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Wow.  The storm that is an Energizer bunny.

It's still getting updates by NHC.  8am update (starting to back more to the north and now going NNE) -

 

115514_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

LOL at the Tropical Storm Warnings on the northern Newfoundland and Labrador coasts.

When was the last time that happened, if ever?

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21 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

LOL at the Tropical Storm Warnings on the northern Newfoundland and Labrador coasts.

When was the last time that happened, if ever?

When it comes time for the final assessment of this storm, it will certainly be a fascinating read! :o

(geocolor & shortwave)

20192511350_GOES16-ABI-FL-GEOCOLOR-AL052019-1000x1000-geocolor-1011am-09082019.jpg

20192511350_GOES16-ABI-FL-07-AL052019-1000x1000-shortwave-ri-1016am-09082019.jpg

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Wow.  The storm that is an Energizer bunny.

It's still getting updates by NHC.  8am update (starting to back more to the north and now going NNE) -

 

It will be interesting to see if the 100 ft wave height will be verified.

https://mobile.twitter.com/rms5539/status/1170657223204376576

A buoy moored off the coast of Newfoundland measured a maximum wave height of 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet yesterday in #Dorian. If verified, that matches the highest wave recorded during the Perfect Storm in October 1991!
 
 
Image

 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the 100 ft wave height will be verified.

https://mobile.twitter.com/rms5539/status/1170657223204376576

A buoy moored off the coast of Newfoundland measured a maximum wave height of 30.7 m, or 100.7 feet yesterday in #Dorian. If verified, that matches the highest wave recorded during the Perfect Storm in October 1991!
 
 
Image

 

I had to dig through that tweet's history to find the buoy being referenced (apparently the info was passed along by a couple people in series) and it is referencing this one - https://www.smartatlantic.ca/station_alt.html?id=portauxbasques

(tried to copy/paste the data from an embedded "history" object at that site.  The 12th column is the wave height (max) and these 3 lines were consecutive and are probably what is being referenced.

2019-09-08 01:54	-59.10094333	47.56279333	22.9	28.5	90.3	11.8	990.8	95	11	null	26.3	10.5	28.6	296.3	60	341.3	null
2019-09-08 02:24	-59.10092	47.56277667	23.4	28.5	90.3	11.7	988.6	96.3	11.1	null	30.7	12.5	28.6	178.3	74	341.3	null
2019-09-08 02:54	-59.101025	47.56284167	24	29.6	92.3	11.6	986	96.7	11.1	null	29.8	13.5	28.6	281.3	67	341.3	null

 

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It is more interesting now in Canada than when it was stalled out east of Florida. What a storm.

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Another NHC update for 11 am (now down to a "minimal CAT 1"-equivalent of 75 mph) -

Quote
000
WTNT35 KNHC 081451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...CENTER OF DORIAN MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.0N 59.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CAPE WHITTLE QUEBEC
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF CAPE ST. GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

 

145534_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Dorian was the 4th category 5 landfalling hurricane in 3 consecutive years for the Atlantic basin. This is a first in the satellite era.

Atlantic basin category 5 hurricanes at landfall.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/International_Hurricanes.html

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html

2019....Dorian.....Bahamas

2018....Michael....USA

2017....Maria.......Dominica

2017....Irma.........British Virgin Islands ...St Martin....Barbuda

2007....Dean.......Mexico

2007....Felix........Nicaragua

1992....Andrew....USA....Bahamas

1988....Gilbert.....Mexico

1969....Camille.....USA

 

 

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