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36 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

As of the 11 PM Advisory, Dorian is projected to still have TS-force winds off the shores of Greenland on Monday.  Crazy.  And that's after swiping Nova Scotia as a hurricane on Saturday.

4uX4l7X.png

Been focused on NC impacts for obvious reasons, but this Canada impact looks to be no joke. That's a Hurricane making landfall almost directly over Halifax, Nova Scotia, and then directly impacts Newfoundland thereafter. (as a post tropical, but still)

I wonder how often Canada issues Hurricane Warnings.

 

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If you guys are weary of canes, move to sunny warm Austin TX. We dont get much rain and we never get canes. We do get plenty of sunshine lol.

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Good Morning Folks, woke up around 4AM w/my phone screaming Weather alerts..

Tornado warnings..  Or Waterspouts..

Looks like it's going to be a interesting morning & Day around ILM..

I sincerely believe, watching the course this morning, ILM will brace for Impact..  

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Effects on the Lowcountry offshore islands (e.g., HHI, Fripp, Harbour, Hunting) seem quite minimal at this time. One person on the Fripp Next Door page said the King Tides from a few days ago were worse than anything from Dorian. There's still a high tide later today, but evidently the effects at least from Beaufort on south were less than Matthew. 

EDITED to say "less than Matthew" instead of "nothing like Matthew." I'm basing this on only a few observational data points from social media, so I shouldn't be so assertive. That said, it seems like Dorian was not as bad. 

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I do not know what to make of all the models with the west side wind max they form overnight over my neck of the woods....a lot of models have a band of 40-50 sustained gusting to 60-80 mph forming over the coastal plains as the center gets out over the Pamlico Sound...I would be right in the middle of it....and well a few gust of 50-60 is one thing 4-5 hrs of gust well into the 70's is something else all together....

 

HRRR shows it, all the models have something very similar to this....

gust_t610m_f18.thumb.png.8863b8f3bb0ac6ac76399d4a90f421af.png

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

I do not know what to make of all the models with the west side wind max they form overnight over my neck of the woods....a lot of models have a band of 40-50 sustained gusting to 60-80 mph forming over the coastal plains as the center gets out over the Pamlico Sound...I would be right in the middle of it....and well a few gust of 50-60 is one thing 4-5 hrs of gust well into the 70's is something else all together....

 

HRRR shows it, all the models have something very similar to this....

 

Noticed that too and have been concerned. Possibly could be due to the interaction with the trough that is kicking it east. The deformation of the structure bringing down some of the upper level winds more effectively. Saw this last year on the back side remnant eyewall of the major that hit along the gulf as it exited northeastern NC. btw - Dorian just got a pretty swift kick, looks like it has taken on a more easterly component. Could really help us out!

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-10-48-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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18 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Noticed that too and have been concerned. Possibly could be due to the interaction with the trough that is kicking it east. The deformation of the structure bringing down some of the upper level winds more effectively. Saw this last year on the back side remnant eyewall of the major that hit along the gulf as it exited northeastern NC. btw - Dorian just got a pretty swift kick, looks like it has taken on a more easterly component. Could really help us out!

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-10-48-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Watching the radar loop from ILM and he is moving pretty much dead on NNE and if he does not turn quite a bit he is going to at the very least skirt Cape Fear...that Sat loop is deceiving 

try running ILM radar loop etc he may have bumped east a hair but overall he is still NNE or NE at best.....speeding up a bit too....

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Winds down a little, forward speed a little faster.

5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 5
Location: 33.1°N 78.5°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Watching the radar loop from ILM and he is moving pretty much dead on NNE and if he does not turn quite a bit he is going to at the very least skirt Cape Fear...that Sat loop is deceiving 

try running ILM radar loop etc he may have bumped east a hair but overall he is still NNE or NE at best.....speeding up a bit too....

I know what you mean. I always double check myself for confirmation bias. But note the 5pm update moving NE rather than NNE as it has been up to now. We need every bit of E and less N that we can get. Possibly now will miss Cape Fear (actual landfall I mean of course).  If it stays out of Pamlico Sound it will help just about everyone downeast. 

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Big story so far is the tornados, we have had reports of several in the area, many are not warned in time as they form and lift in a matter of a minute or two...they will extend and shift the watch a bit as the old one runs out...

 

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 636 continues.

   SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat is expected to gradually shift
   north across ww636.

   DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery suggests Dorian has
   shifted a bit east as it advances along the Carolina Coast. Since
   early this morning, the most notable convection has been occurring
   within the northeast quad of the cyclone, roughly 100 mi from
   Dorian's center. Lightning is noted within the band as it lifts
   north, well ahead of the circulation's center. Isolated supercells
   continue to form along a corridor, arcing from Sampson County NC -
   Onslow County - 32.97N/75.70W, off the NC Coast. This activity
   should gradually move north across the remainder of ww636,
   continuing well beyond 23z expiration. For these reasons a new
   tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening.

 

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Not thrilled with the Watch likely being extended. Not a fan of nighttime severe weather. Especially since I didn't get a phone alert for our warning earlier today. AT&T hasn't replied to my tweet yet.

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52 minutes ago, NRVwxfan. said:

Isn't Yotaman near New Bern?

I am about 10 miles southeast of Downtown New Bern. That cell that produced that tornado went thru my area first with just heavy rain little wind. Phone warnings have been going crazy this afternoon.

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Just now, yotaman said:

I am about 10 miles southeast of Downtown New Bern. That cell that produced that tornado went thru my area first with just heavy rain little wind. Phone warnings have been going crazy this afternoon.

Glad you're ok. Close call for sure. Still gonna be a long night in your area.

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1 minute ago, NRVwxfan. said:

Glad you're ok. Close call for sure. Still gonna be a long night in your area.

Thanks, yes it will be. Not at all happy to go thru another one of these so close to Florence. Wife has now agreed to move after I retire next year.

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24 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Thanks, yes it will be. Not at all happy to go thru another one of these so close to Florence. Wife has now agreed to move after I retire next year.

Where do you plan on moving? I just moved from Columbia SC To Christiansburg VA in the mountains. I'm content on watching this storm from afar.

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1 hour ago, NRVwxfan. said:

Where do you plan on moving? I just moved from Columbia SC To Christiansburg VA in the mountains. I'm content on watching this storm from afar.

We are looking towards the foothills of NC. Anywhere from Morganton to Mt Airy. We want to stay in NC but I would have no issue with southwestern Va.

Having a nice break from the rain. Took the pups for a walk. Winds are from the southeast at about 20 to 30mph.

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28 minutes ago, yotaman said:

We are looking towards the foothills of NC. Anywhere from Morganton to Mt Airy. We want to stay in NC but I would have no issue with southwestern Va.

Having a nice break from the rain. Took the pups for a walk. Winds are from the southeast at about 20 to 30mph.

Grew up in Mount Airy, moved to Boone and now live in Caldwell County. Can’t go wrong man! Hang in there tonight, that’s nasty weather moving in. 

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On 9/1/2019 at 10:59 AM, superjames1992 said:

I have some extended stepfamily who lives in Man-O-War near Marsh Harbor in The Bahamas and decided not to evacuate. WTF???  Hope they survive...

To follow up on this, they did survive.  Their house, however, did not, to say the least.  Just saw a photo of it and there’s hardly anything left.

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I grew up in McDowell County just outside Marion then moved to Virginia Beach for college, then Maryland for a while, then Front Royal, VA for a few summers, then back to Marion. Then to the eastern shore of Maryland near Easton, then to Danville for almost 4 years then Waldorf, MD finally just moved back to Western NC. You just can't beat the weather, cheap housing (generally) and mountains. 

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We are looking towards the foothills of NC. Anywhere from Morganton to Mt Airy. We want to stay in NC but I would have no issue with southwestern Va.
Having a nice break from the rain. Took the pups for a walk. Winds are from the southeast at about 20 to 30mph.

Come on over to Rutherford County!
Safe stay tonight!!


.

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