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Dorian


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4 hours ago, thess said:

Wake County schools closed tomorrow.

What a joke.  Next month Wake County Schools close for a breezy fall day!  So ridiculous.  I can certainly agree when winds are forecast to gust over 50mph for an extended period.  But keep in mind folks, there are areas all over this great nation where that's a perfectly normal day!  

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Several Mets have been comparing Dorian's track to Matthew and noted the similar proximity to the coast. How fast/slow was Matthew compared to the expected forward speed of Dorian? I was in Rehab at the time after my hospital stay, and really have no memory of the storm as it was going on. What about the inland reach of the rain shield and wind speed.... then vs. now? Comparing tracks is kind of useless without other parameters to use as a gauge.

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This sucks. This absolutely sucks. I grew up in Wilmington (look at my name!) and my family still lives there. The entire place is still on pins and needles from Florence. The LAST thing they need is to be punched by the northern eyewall of a major. Ugh. 

Yeah, instead of doing the usual core disintegration a la Irene or Matthew or Florence, it's actually STRENGTHENING. It's always a bit scarier to watch these big hurricanes tighten up and gain a second wind; its like watching a 7 foot basketball player dribble a basketball with proficiency. All the classic signs (warmer eye, symmetry, constricting eyewall etc) are there. SSTs say this has about 12 more hours of strengthening before it hits the continental shelf and slides out of the warm gulf stream. Maybe it bottoms out at 949? 950? It's hard to guess these things but it has a little more deepening to do in my opinion. 

Until then, don't know what happens. It will be a bit harder to bring down, if this is a 125 mph storm by 12z tomorrow, there's a solid chance it stays a major as it zips by. 

The small saving grace is that it seems like model consensus brings this just a hair offshore, giving land the relatively weaker eyewall. Hopefully for the weary residents of Cape Fear this doesn't sneak onshore. 

 

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5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

This sucks. This absolutely sucks. I grew up in Wilmington (look at my name!) and my family still lives there. The entire place is still on pins and needles from Florence. The LAST thing they need is to be punched by the northern eyewall of a major. Ugh. 

Yeah, instead of doing the usual core disintegration a la Irene or Matthew or Florence, it's actually STRENGTHENING. It's always a bit scarier to watch these big hurricanes tighten up and gain a second wind; its like watching a 7 foot basketball player dribble a basketball with proficiency. All the classic signs (warmer eye, symmetry, constricting eyewall etc) are there. SSTs say this has about 12 more hours of strengthening before it hits the continental shelf and slides out of the warm gulf stream. Maybe it bottoms out at 949? 950? It's hard to guess these things but it has a little more deepening to do in my opinion. 

Until then, don't know what happens. It will be a bit harder to bring down, if this is a 125 mph storm by 12z tomorrow, there's a solid chance it stays a major as it zips by. 

The small saving grace is that it seems like model consensus brings this just a hair offshore, giving land the relatively weaker eyewall. Hopefully for the weary residents of Cape Fear this doesn't sneak onshore. 

 

Hope your family stays safe. Is this trajectory the worst case scenario for surge? 

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Local stations here in Charleston surprisingly haven’t even started doing continuous coverage yet for the storm, even though we’re under 12 hours away from most of the immediate metro area potentially getting 80-100 mph wind gusts. 

Only Channel 5 is even running hourly updates. Figuring this is because of the late-night pass, but there’s been storms before where they started doing almost continuous coverage at least a day out. 

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IMO it is because the storm has been covered for over a week and is currently several orders of magnitude weaker than it was two days ago. If Dorian had slid across the Bahamas as a Cat 1, strengthened to a Cat 2 as it made the turn up the coast and now was on the cusp of becoming a Major hurricane for the first time as it neared Charleston the storm would be handled much differently by the news organizations. 

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36 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Hope your family stays safe. Is this trajectory the worst case scenario for surge? 

Thank you. They'll be good, although you never know which storm is the one to knock that pine tree in your back yard over. Just generally stressed out, it's the little things. My cousin whose a UNCW student had a really hard time finding a place to live this year because Florence constricted the housing market. I had a few friends that had to run go fund mes for various Florence casualties (cars, roofs, etc.) Speaking of roofs, my high school English teacher showed a picture of the patch from Florence he's putting a bigger patch on because he's still on the waiting list for a new roof after Florence. Everything is backlogged. And to think my family had things easy!  

TBH, I have no idea how surge will react to this oblique landfall angle, I wish I did. Most of the news stations are going with 4-7 feet which seemed like a great forecast 12 hours ago. 

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NHC discussion of the intensity:

Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so,
but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result
in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same
as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2
or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United
States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which
unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone.

 

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36 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

As of the 11 PM Advisory, Dorian is projected to still have TS-force winds off the shores of Greenland on Monday.  Crazy.  And that's after swiping Nova Scotia as a hurricane on Saturday.

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Been focused on NC impacts for obvious reasons, but this Canada impact looks to be no joke. That's a Hurricane making landfall almost directly over Halifax, Nova Scotia, and then directly impacts Newfoundland thereafter. (as a post tropical, but still)

I wonder how often Canada issues Hurricane Warnings.

 

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