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Dorian


shaggy
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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

It’s basically an EF4 tornado with gusts into EF5, yet is bigger than many states in the country.....unreal. 

Those kind of winds though are limited to a small area, maybe 10-15 miles thick in the inner eyewall...as bad as this storm is hurricane force winds only extend out 40-50 miles from the center.....

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48 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Be careful what you trust. That first link looked like it had a loop in it at one point, and I know some folks on the tropical board thread were talking about fake live streams on YouTube.

These seem legit, so far, but maybe just because they're not on Abaco.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=panj1oZ6zLM

 

 

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Those Islands not having any affect on Dorian at all!

Some of the videos out of there makes my stomach turn. Feel  sorry for them. 

Been watching this convection on the south/southwest side of storm.  Watching and expecting to see some wobbles.

10 or 20 miles means TS force or Hurricane force here.

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Not much change other than forward speed has slowed down.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES
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That pressure on Euro does not automatically equal Cat 4 up this way it really depends on a lot of factors, however I imagine by then the wind field will be huge with hurricane winds well out for the center in gust....NHC has it dropping from 105 south of NC to 95 NE of NC....but they barely keep the center offshore it looks like....

 

Here is the NHC disco of Irene a few hrs after landfall while she was over the Pamlico Sound with winds of around 80-85 MPH and a pressure of 950 MB......

THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE
ACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE RAGGED
EYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON
RADAR...WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORIES.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB. 
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From the 5 PM NHC discussion:

The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is
possibly occurring.  The effect of the island terrain and the
eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations
in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will
continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time.
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RDU write up 9pm tonight

Wednesday night into Friday: Impact from Hurricane Dorian will
increase across (at least) eastern portions of central NC by
Wednesday night as the hurricane lifts north/northeastward along the
GA/SC coast. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible. Despite
around 6 to 12 hour timing differences in the latest operational
GFS/ECMWF we expect the most significant impacts on Thursday into
Thursday night. While there is still some uncertainty in the track
of the hurricane as it approaches our latitude (until we start to see
the turn northward and increase in forward speed on Monday into
Tuesday). However, the continued run to run continuity over the last
several days of both the ECMWF and GFS is leading to increasing
confidence of at least eastern NC (generally to the east of the US 1
corridor) will see tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rain
(resulting in flash flooding potential, especially in the far east).
As the hurricane weakens as it moves northward and near our
coastline we will likely see the wind field expand. This will likely
result in tropical storm force wind gusts spreading across (at
least) eastern portion of the area, as mentioned above. It is
possible to see wind gusts in the 60+ mph range across our far
eastern/southeastern counties.
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3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Not sure how good or bad the HRRR is on tropical stuff but you can definitely see the NW turn around hour 18-24 on the 0z run.Then it looks almost due north hour 30-36 and well off the coast.

Just an observation.

If Dorian is going to put the western eyewall on land in FL it appears the models wanna do it around Cape Canaveral.....not sure how much weight I would put on the Hi Res models...

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5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

looks like 6z HWRF takes it into between CHS and Georgetown up through Myrtle. 

For us in the Triangle, we'll be very close to the cut off line for excessive rain. 50 mile difference in the track will give folks in central NC 5" or very little.

Lol, we'll probably have the Wake County cut off. But it will be opposite (then many winter storms) for the haves and have nots...  

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46 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

For us in the Triangle, we'll be very close to the cut off line for excessive rain. 50 mile difference in the track will give folks in central NC 5" or very little.

Lol, we'll probably have the Wake County cut off. But it will be opposite (then many winter storms) for the haves and have nots...  

Angle of landfall if one occurs is so crucial. Big difference if a storm comes in around cale fear moving NNE or one that clips cape fear moving ENE. Changes the weather for alot of people.

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