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Dorian


shaggy
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Yep, another day of checking in every so often while I'm at work. Fortunately my place isn't in the city, not in a flood zone, and there are no trees within 100' of the house thanks to Hugo and the previous owners not planting anything. Definitely need to stop by Sam's already this afternoon.

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I would agree that the longer it takes to get to the coast the better chance of finding a weakeness to turn north. With that said, it is all really a crap shoot at this point. Even if it came north, would we be looking at an OBX cane or just another Crabtree toilet stopper? We shall see.

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8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I would agree that the longer it takes to get to the coast the better chance of finding a weakeness to turn north. With that said, it is all really a crap shoot at this point. Even if it came north, would we be looking at an OBX cane or just another Crabtree toilet stopper? We shall see.

I would think based on the latest Euro ensembles something kinda Ireneish, especially with the slow forward speed.....Irene was a iron cast bitch for us as she crawled up, PGV record a 50 mph or better gust 16 hrs in a row and we had hurricane force gust for 8-10 hrs...it was a mess. 

 

us_cyclone-en-087-0_euro_2019082900_15844_481_240.thumb.png.41cc66c20e50a84245aa82d884535228.png

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So after moving more SW from 72 to 120 on the 12Z Euro we actually end up east of the 00Z last night from there along the Florida coast and instead of inland up the middle of the state the storm now rides just off or half on the coast.....the run from GA north is similar as well with it a bit more inland over SC/NC...not exactly making me feel like we in the Carolina's are out of the woods, a few more little shifts east like that and its first landfall will be Charleston to ILM somewhere....

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17 hours ago, eyewall said:

I would agree that the longer it takes to get to the coast the better chance of finding a weakeness to turn north. With that said, it is all really a crap shoot at this point. Even if it came north, would we be looking at an OBX cane or just another Crabtree toilet stopper? We shall see.

What on God's green Earth, is a Crabtree toilet stopper?

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Last few hours looks like Dorian really starting to strengthen. An eye recently opened.

Looks like its trying to become more symmetric in shape.

That weak UL seems be aiding in the outflow aloft. See how things progress between now and then. Plenty of 85 degree water in between. 

Almost reminds me of Andrew. The environment and trajectory. 

 

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9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

 

 

That north turn is nuts, 75 miles one way or the other in the timing of that turn has huge implications for Florida and the Carolina's...

It would be nice if it stayed to the right side of the cone and that re-curve showing up on the GFS sends it back out to sea before landfall; as you said what an enormous difference +- 75 miles could make...

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

12Z GFS big time right shift....

Yeah pretty much same track as 00Z Euro last night so far.....if we can get another 50-100 miles east then Florida will be spared a major disaster.....ridging might keep the GFS farther west and not turnout the system as fast as earlier runs though from GA north.....

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10 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

GFS has that sharp cutoff in today's run as well.Someone could get  15''-20''

 

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2019083012_183_480_220.png

Seems like we are getting 500 yr floods every year lately lol.....the rivers are low right now though and can handle quite a bit of rain, flash flooding would be a major issue and all the major eastern rivers would go to flood stage with totals like that its just a question of how high.

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FWIW. The UK came east too from 0z runs. Slower than GFS. Wetter than GFS too.

15-20" around Orlando. 

Port St Lucie/Palm Bay to Orlando, to Ocala, to Jacksonville the NE.

Timing wise for Orlando. GFS: Mid day Tuesday to over Tuesday/Weds morning. 

 

UK over night Tues to Wednesday afternoon 

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