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New England Convective Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

Has anyone really excelled at it this year? Thinking the March Alabama/Georgia outbreak and that one busy week in the plains back in the spring are the winners so far for 2019....

 

North Texas was nutso this spring, granted with no very strong tornadoes.  Typical Nino conditions really.

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

SNH/CNE is alright in August. At least historically?

It was more in response to Wiz losing his shit over a shelf cloud, but yeah...we have our moments. Yesterday wasn’t too bad. That was some big hail and nice wind damage posted here.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You need to get out to the midwest one spring. Our good days are their bad days. But yeah, it’s all good. Heck, I was weenieing out over rain the other night. Those were def some nice shelf pics. 

I think I should be in excellent position to get out west within the next few years. I think come 2021 I will be eligible for two weeks of vacation and by that point I'll have a few big bills paid off so I can put aside a decent amount of money. I've even thought about holding off until later in the summer...everyone gets so pumped for the spring and you get all the chaser convergence but August can offer up some pretty awesome severe chances out that way...this time of year can be rather underrated. 

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I like this description for tomorrow from SPC/Convective Outlook source... 

"...Northeastern states... Heating will lead to numerous thunderstorms across the moist sector by 18Z over much of NY and northeast PA, expanding across New England during the afternoon. Around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear and 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH will be sufficient to sustain severe storms, including isolated supercells capable of marginal hail, a brief/weak tornado, or damaging wind. Due to the expected large number of storms, mergers are likely, and a few line segments may form as well. Storms may persist well into the evening and overnight into northern New England when the stronger height falls occur...."

I've come to find that things tend to work out better for New England when the region is initially on the eastern manifold of these hashing's...  Things just have a tendency to accelerate toward the coast and "sweet" instability away once triggered... but, tomorrow would tend to compensate for that effect as the axis of deeper layer forcing and destablization "waits" until a bit later in the day...  The upshot is more time in heating... 

Looking at the synoptic evolution then going forward into the evening and the overnight ... there are steady albeit slow height falling in associated with the Ontario trough amplitude pressing over top ... I wouldn't be shocked if after initial wave of convection ...there are those training nocturnal back-building storms in the area... 

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ORH county NE into southern NH may be in a maximized zone for tornado potential tomorrow...obviously assuming the NAM is handling things correctly. This is what I' thinking...

If we are able to see 2000-2500 MLCAPE...it will be a pretty big event. I want to see bufkit soundings and see what is has for 0-3km CAPE but if we can get around 125-150...that will be pretty eye opening 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

image.png

Really about as as good as it gets around here. One downside is above 1km winds are mainly unidirectional so any tornado potential will be confined to discrete cells...and the window for these may be small. Anyways, we could see a few wet microbusts tomorrow

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Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

Will this be a deal where we want to see as much sun as we can early in the day to maximize potential?

yes, I think so. I think our best window is early on...so we're going to want to start with sun...I don't think we need a ton of sunshine so we don't need sunny skies...but we want to get MLCAPE over 2000 and 3km CAPE over 125 J...and maybe we could get away with closer to 100 J of 0-3km CAPE.

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15 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

SNH/CNE is alright in August. At least historically?

Strongest TS to hit within 10 miles my place was on August 30, 2007.  No spinners but hail defoliated much of 7,000 acres of forest, partially debarking some, and damaged roofs, windows and siding on houses in Rome village.  There were still sizable piles of runoff-gathered hail 24 hours after the storm.  (6-8 miles NW, we had a moderate TS with zero hail - the usual.)

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Let's hope tomorrow will provide plenty of excitement and damage.

Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. 

Where's @OceanStWx been????????????

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. 

Where's @OceanStWx been????????????

I think he's out west

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. 

Where's @OceanStWx been????????????

 

4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

I think he's out west

Where Paul should go visit for Severe.

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be a tight window but it could be pretty widespread...even despite the weak mid-level lapse rates. Not to beat the bat with the dead horse, but if we are able to get 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE...I think that's the magic value. 

Where's @OceanStWx been????????????

Imagine 12-15 Tors on the ground at same time in SNE tomorrow 

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