40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 On 8/19/2019 at 9:14 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Well...since you put it this way ...I don't disagree ... I also think that increased snow fall -- having caved last night and given it more thought -- could very easily be guided by two very certain factors: 1 ... increased frequency of smaller events - aggregation as oppose to 'block-buster' season definers... 2 ... whether true or not... any system tapping into increase ambient WV associated with a warming world.. would, counter-intuitive to the lay-folk... proficiently rain or snow, both. It's just that yar ...as the world warms... one side of that gets favored eventually. These two factors ... however disparate, appear to be converging in the climate modulation since 2000 - fascinating. I will add as an after thought ... for those forecasting seasonal characteristics - if it were me I would keep it in mind that this GW -related circulation modulation stuff is accelerating - by that we mean still changing... Probably not for the better for those interested in cryospheric agenda at middle latitudes... The punching N/invasion/swelling of the mean suptropical circulation eddy into the Ferrel latitudes is why we are seeing increased gradient... It kinda more than sorta goes like: Arctic is warming at a faster rate ...but since it starts at a very low scalar point ... it still imposes deep heights near the northern girdle of the mid latitudes... This then directly imposes upon said ballooning Hadley cell ... flow speeds up... But, with GW still accelerating ( apparently ...) that Hadley cell expansion ... not sure why that would imminently cease to occur.... and in fact ( pure speculation from this point forward...) I almost imagine the tripolar split of the atmosphere ( Polar:Ferrel:Hadley) becoming more and more duple in character over future years ...however long that takes. Imagine one contiguous subtropical band with more a singular polar jet ... split flows rarefying... interesting... Anyway, supposition aside, ... that's not 2019-2020 Well, I don't think the greater snowfall has been due to more smaller events....we have had an abundance of big tickets, progressive as they may have been... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I don't think the greater snowfall has been due to more smaller events....we have had an abundance of big tickets, progressive as they may have been... Agree. I've gathered data on big, frozen (SN,IP but not ZR) events since moving to Maine in Jan. 1973, choosing 1.50" of frozen precip as a threshold which results in 25 such events. (Going with 2"+ drops that number to 9, too small a sample.) BGR had one "big" in my 3 years there, in April 1975. Fort Kent had 4 in 9.7 winters, Gardiner just 3 in 13, and New Sharon 17 in 21. Prior to moving here I'd not recorded 2 such events in the same winter, but there were 4 in 16-17, 3 in 06-07, and pairs in 2 other winters. The trend I've seen is for more high-qpf winter storms, not less, at least where I've been living the past 46-47 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 It is amazing how we can't buy a prolonged -NAO. And to think about what was thrown about in 2010. I heard some theories as to why we have had some -AO/-NAO summers...but the whole sea ice argument only mildly seems plausible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is amazing how we can't buy a prolonged -NAO. And to think about what was thrown about in 2010. I heard some theories as to why we have had some -AO/-NAO summers...but the whole sea ice argument only mildly seems plausible to me. The sea ice argument was the reason given from 2009-2013 but now it obviously doesn't work given the recent +NAO. I've still heard it as relating to the recent -EPOs we've seen. We'll see if that holds up too in the coming decade. Regardless, it would be nice to grab at least a solid month of -NAO in the means (obviously fluctuating is ideal...before Tip makes an angry post about dynamic changes in magnitude)....it's nice not having to rely on the unmanned firehose spraying the right way all the time. A good solid PNA ridge can do the same ala 2015 but those don't seem to lock in place as easily as an NAO block...unless it's 2015 of course, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Yeah Steve's -EPO can be great and all, but nothing like seeing a trough dig over the western high Plains. We know what that means, the kitchen sink many times. Maybe this year will be different in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah Steve's -EPO can be great and all, but nothing like seeing a trough dig over the western high Plains. We know what that means, the kitchen sink many times. Maybe this year will be different in the Atlantic. 2011 2013 2015 say hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 2011 2013 2015 say hi Those first two had big -NAO help. 2015 did not though but we got an amazing nearly-standing PNA wave in a perfect spot. When it doesn't line up like that we often have to be at the whim of the unmanned firehose....ala 2013-2014, 2016-2017, and last year...last year we got somewhat unlucky but that's the way it goes. We got lucky in some of those previous years. Obviously we all root for a -EPO since a +EPO is garbage but I will also root for some Atlantic help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 2015 was more +PNA which is ideal. Tough to lose out with that, Steve. I know you like the cold supply from a -EPO and as Will said...we take that over +EPO. But, you do play with fire and it's easy for things to go wrong in our neck of the woods. Just hoping for a decent Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 I would opin to say the dislodging of cold in these years by a big EPO bump a week earlier set the stage, the chicken laid the egg each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I don't think the greater snowfall has been due to more smaller events....we have had an abundance of big tickets, progressive as they may have been... Increases in WV associated with GW contributes to more proficient precipitation, which should be acceptable via understanding Clausius Clapeyron equation ... Indeed, climate reports indicate 4 to 5% increases since 1901 ... However, looking at the graphical distribution ... the statistics are rather noisy (below)... I find it interesting ...the Autumn cuts up the lion's share of that increase ...where by eye-ballin' alone ...clearly the winters are surprising less. I mean just look at CT ... they are in a snow deficit compared to the rest of New England outside of Maine. There is pretty obvious less than ubiquitous distribution with regional variations, as well, seasonal differences involved in that mean U.S. total increase (keeping in mind, precipitation in this context pertains to both rain and snow). That sort of distribution pallet is more consistent with less skill than deterministic. I mean, just locally ... look at the difference between CT and MA. in that winter graphic. Plus...that Fall - Winter relay that is a monster differential there, and since Novie is an autumn month, and Dec is winter. is there any flop over there... Creates more questions than answers. The other aspect that muddles this, because of 'Clapeyron relationship. the same system 50 years ago does not as proficiently precipitate - that skews the model of the big ticket vs smaller aggregates.. in fact, it starts leaning the argumentative difference to moot if any trigger at all starts dumping bigger rain and/or snow bombs because of the saturation effect. To the point where we 990 mb low historic events with increased frequency, but the governing kinematics are not overtly impressive. When we look at this climate graph We may see an upward trend in big ticket events ... We may not be technically wrong... but, in reality what we are seeing may be an upward trend in precipitation period, because all events under the hood are being super-charged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 2015 was more +PNA which is ideal. Tough to lose out with that, Steve. I know you like the cold supply from a -EPO and as Will said...we take that over +EPO. But, you do play with fire and it's easy for things to go wrong in our neck of the woods. Just hoping for a decent Atlantic. We could probably figure out which was of greater importance to that season via relative standard deviation - ... I mean it may not help... If a PNA is west or east biased, or the EPO...that would skew any conclusions perhaps .. But just in general.. if the PNA was +2 the whole way and the EPO was -4 the whole way, ...the EPO may win that assumption. Oy...actually that doesn't work either... Because the EPO is a small domain space comparatively...so, you'd have to do some sort of weighting analysis and f -that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Increases in WV associated with GW contributes to more proficient precipitation, which should be acceptable via understanding Clausius Clapeyron equation ... Indeed, climate reports indicate 4 to 5% increases since 1901 ... However, looking at the graphical distribution ... the statistics are rather noisy (below)... I find it interesting ...the Autumn cuts up the lion's share of that increase ...where by eye-ballin' alone ...clearly the winters are surprising less. I mean just look at CT ... they are in a snow deficit compared to the rest of New England outside of Maine. There is pretty obvious less than ubiquitous distribution with regional variations, as well, seasonal differences involved in that mean U.S. total increase (keeping in mind, precipitation in this context pertains to both rain and snow). That sort of distribution pallet is more consistent with less skill than deterministic. I mean, just locally ... look at the difference between CT and MA. in that winter graphic. Plus...that Fall - Winter relay that is a monster differential there, and since Novie is an autumn month, and Dec is winter. is there any flop over there... Creates more questions than answers. The other aspect that muddles this, because of 'Clapeyron relationship. the same system 50 years ago does not as proficiently precipitate - that skews the model of the big ticket vs smaller aggregates.. in fact, it starts leaning the argumentative difference to moot if any trigger at all starts dumping bigger rain and/or snow bombs because of the saturation effect. To the point where we 990 mb low historic events with increased frequency, but the governing kinematics are not overtly impressive. When we look at this climate graph We may see an upward trend in big ticket events ... We may not be technically wrong... but, in reality what we are seeing may be an upward trend in precipitation period, because all events under the hood are being super-charged. Fair enough. I would have nevee guessed that CT has been shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fair enough. I would have nevee guessed that CT has been shafted. I know ... ( hahaha ) ... Oh man - can't wait to make Kevin read that back to us - Steve for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 I decided to look into the frequency of snowfalls by magnitude at ORH based on the discussion by Tip and Ray....here's what I found: Now obviously a couple things stick out....small event between 3.0-5.9 have generally declined while larger events over 12" have increased. The middle run-of-the-mill warning criteria events have not really changed....slight increase. But something to keep in mind, the data is somewhat noisy. See the decade of the 2000s with the big increase again in small events and moderate events....but not really 12"+ events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Jesus Will... I've been looking for snow events by dates for years... You saunter on in with a graph!? wtf haahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Jesus Will... I've been looking for snow events by dates for years... You saunter on in with a graph!? wtf haahahah Well I just made it....lol....I had the raw file for years, but I had to update it for the most recent decade.....here;s the raw data by each single year: Snowfall frequencies at KORH by year Year 3.0-5.9" 6.0-11.9" >= 12" 1950-1951 5 0 0 1951-1952 8 2 0 1952-1953 5 2 0 1953-1954 3 1 0 1954-1955 3 1 0 1955-1956 6 6 0 1956-1957 11 0 0 1957-1958 3 2 4 1958-1959 5 2 1 1959-1960 4 1 1 1960-1961 7 2 3 1961-1962 3 2 2 1962-1963 5 4 1 1963-1964 5 3 1 1964-1965 7 2 0 1965-1966 2 2 3 1966-1967 4 4 2 1967-1968 4 4 1 1968-1969 3 2 2 1969-1970 7 1 1 1970-1971 4 6 0 1971-1972 5 3 2 1972-1973 3 1 1 1973-1974 2 2 0 1974-1975 7 1 1 1975-1976 2 2 1 1976-1977 6 4 2 1977-1978 4 4 2 1978-1979 7 1 0 1979-1980 3 1 0 1980-1981 2 2 0 1981-1982 4 3 1 1982-1983 1 0 3 1983-1984 3 5 1 1984-1985 6 0 0 1985-1986 4 1 0 1986-1987 2 5 2 1987-1988 4 3 1 1988-1989 4 0 0 1989-1990 3 3 0 1990-1991 3 2 0 1991-1992 3 1 0 1992-1993 6 3 2 1993-1994 7 3 2 1994-1995 0 0 1 1995-1996 6 5 4 1996-1997 3 1 2 1997-1998 5 1 1 1998-1999 2 4 0 1999-2000 2 2 0 2000-2001 4 3 2 2001-2002 2 3 0 2002-2003 9 2 3 2003-2004 5 1 1 2004-2005 8 6 1 2005-2006 3 2 2 2006-2007 3 1 1 2007-2008 4 5 0 2008-2009 4 4 1 2009-2010 4 3 0 2010-2011 4 1 4 2011-2012 3 1 1 2012-2013 2 5 2 2013-2014 4 4 2 2014-2015 4 3 3 2015-2016 4 0 1 2016-2017 5 2 2 2017-2018 3 2 3 2018-2019 5 3 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 ORH totals for all 3"+ in 60s. 70s, 00s, 10s look pretty flat, separated by the 80s/90s crumminess. I'll have to play this game with the local co-op, though due to its POR back into the 1890s and significantly greater snowfall I'll probably limit things to storms 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, tamarack said: ORH totals for all 3"+ in 60s. 70s, 00s, 10s look pretty flat, separated by the 80s/90s crumminess. I'll have to play this game with the local co-op, though due to its POR back into the 1890s and significantly greater snowfall I'll probably limit things to storms 6"+. Yeah the 1950s and 1980s were pretty big outliers that can skew the look. The 1950s were dreadful for snowfalls 6"+ in both categories over 6". Even worse than the 1980s....they seemed to try and make up for with lots of 3.0-5.9" events, but the 1956-1957 season kind of skews that decade too if we want to dig deeper. That winter had 11 events of 3.0-5.9" and ZERO 6.0"+ of any kind. No other year in the entire record even had 10, nevermind 11....2002-2003 was closest with 9, though unlike 1956-1957, the incredibly prolific 2002-2003 also had 2 events of 6-11.9" and 3 over 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well I just made it....lol....I had the raw file for years, but I had to update it for the most recent decade.....here;s the raw data by each single year: Snowfall frequencies at KORH by year Year 3.0-5.9" 6.0-11.9" >= 12" 1950-1951 5 0 0 1951-1952 8 2 0 1952-1953 5 2 0 1953-1954 3 1 0 1954-1955 3 1 0 1955-1956 6 6 0 1956-1957 11 0 0 1957-1958 3 2 4 1958-1959 5 2 1 1959-1960 4 1 1 1960-1961 7 2 3 1961-1962 3 2 2 1962-1963 5 4 1 1963-1964 5 3 1 1964-1965 7 2 0 1965-1966 2 2 3 1966-1967 4 4 2 1967-1968 4 4 1 1968-1969 3 2 2 1969-1970 7 1 1 1970-1971 4 6 0 1971-1972 5 3 2 1972-1973 3 1 1 1973-1974 2 2 0 1974-1975 7 1 1 1975-1976 2 2 1 1976-1977 6 4 2 1977-1978 4 4 2 1978-1979 7 1 0 1979-1980 3 1 0 1980-1981 2 2 0 1981-1982 4 3 1 1982-1983 1 0 3 1983-1984 3 5 1 1984-1985 6 0 0 1985-1986 4 1 0 1986-1987 2 5 2 1987-1988 4 3 1 1988-1989 4 0 0 1989-1990 3 3 0 1990-1991 3 2 0 1991-1992 3 1 0 1992-1993 6 3 2 1993-1994 7 3 2 1994-1995 0 0 1 1995-1996 6 5 4 1996-1997 3 1 2 1997-1998 5 1 1 1998-1999 2 4 0 1999-2000 2 2 0 2000-2001 4 3 2 2001-2002 2 3 0 2002-2003 9 2 3 2003-2004 5 1 1 2004-2005 8 6 1 2005-2006 3 2 2 2006-2007 3 1 1 2007-2008 4 5 0 2008-2009 4 4 1 2009-2010 4 3 0 2010-2011 4 1 4 2011-2012 3 1 1 2012-2013 2 5 2 2013-2014 4 4 2 2014-2015 4 3 3 2015-2016 4 0 1 2016-2017 5 2 2 2017-2018 3 2 3 2018-2019 5 3 0 Ooh.. I'm keeping this dude - too bad we don't have them like .... Dec 3 ...and Jan 20 and Feb 18 and so forth ... but not lookin' a gift horse in the mouth. nice bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ooh.. I'm keeping this dude - too bad we don't have them like .... Dec 3 ...and Jan 20 and Feb 18 and so forth ... but not lookin' a gift horse in the mouth. nice bro Yeah, that's good data. I keep track of the total numbers greater than a certain threshold but I don't break it down by season. I just like to know how many events I have greater than 1" or greater than 6" or greater than 10" for example. I like the break down in Will's. Speaking of the data, I like how there are two seasons in the 80s with no events greater than 6". I'm glad I was in High school and college. I can't imagine being a little kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Yeah, that's good data. I keep track of the total numbers greater than a certain threshold but I don't break it down by season. I just like to know how many events I have greater than 1" or greater than 6" or greater than 10" for example. I like the break down in Will's. Speaking of the data, I like how there are two seasons in the 80s with no events greater than 6". I'm glad I was in High school and college. I can't imagine being a little kid. I should add in 1.0-2.9" events just to see if there's been anything going on there. But that would require a chunk of time for me to compile that data since there's more of those events, and I never started the process. I had already started doing 3, 6, and 12 thresholds over a decade ago. Anecdotal, but I swear 2.7, 2.8, and 2.9 were so damned common in the 2000s and 2010s looking at the ORH data. I can't believe how many times I left off an event because it failed to reach 3.0" by a few tenths or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 1 hour ago, MetHerb said: Yeah, that's good data. I keep track of the total numbers greater than a certain threshold but I don't break it down by season. I just like to know how many events I have greater than 1" or greater than 6" or greater than 10" for example. I like the break down in Will's. Speaking of the data, I like how there are two seasons in the 80s with no events greater than 6". I'm glad I was in High school and college. I can't imagine being a little kid. It's all relative of course... The decade was going badly ...then, there were glimmer of hopes in 1986 with a Novie event ( I think 1987 had one two... ), but the season didn't do much afterwards... Back to shit fests... But overall, 1987 wasn't terrible... There was a surprise event that rung up 6-10" in metro west ...supposed to be a glopper... But cold air was entrenched and way under estimated by man and models... When teeny flakes broke out and the visibility dropped to 1/4 mile it was pretty clear the forecast was in trouble... I really only remember a handful of ordeals that whole decade, purely because it was just banal, uninspired boring winters - it was really about the great nothing happening decade. And what I do remember .. disappointments out-numbered the production. There were a couple of bomogenesis events in those suggestive season years ... 1987 I think. They made the decade inimitably worse. How could a bomb make the decade worse? Well, they were supposed to redux '78 but ended up only clipping the Cape, while not much farther NW of the Canal managed dim orb sun through virga exploded cirrus. These storms were egregiously advertised... saturated air-waves criss-crossing electromagnetic death threats. I mean people were getting scared for what snow could do to cut off their heads... We were collectively under full-bird blizzard warnings clear to Fitchburg, MA and the western hills of Worcester. If you were old enough to be more into the TWC ( the only portal to the larger weather community available to the turbo dork with stolen lunch money in that era - this was pre web by a goodly margin mind you .. ), you had just enough cognition and knowledge to really feel the rub-in the NWS conspired to commit ... I mean, one of those storm there was a 4th period blizzard watch posted with dire ticker warnings scrolling on about cryospheric dystopian grid failure in hurricane wind pushed choke snow clear to almost SE Vt ... partly sunny ... Oh, but having to walk numb-faced to school ( after all ) .... in -9 F in 30 mph wind with blistering lips made it all totally worth it! Anyone sentient of matters since ... circa 1992 ...really has no idea what "bust" truly means on a spiritual level... It's like that scene on the roof in Shawshank...when Biren Hadley was languishing on about having to pay taxes on 30 thousand dollars in front of butt raped roofing-tar glazed immates ...and Morgan Freeman's character, "Red," says, " Oh. Poor Hadely - ain't he got it rough" That's 'bout how I feel for anyone since 1992 that never went through, or is aware, of the former years, that has the temerity to feel 'disappointed' .. about anything. Like shut the f up man. The era wasn't just about low results - it was about the dark art of specifically designed busts.. The decade was about "rubbing it in" - the greatest plausible set ups relative to perceivable reality ... There's also another thing about that era... in a lot of ways, it was made horrifically worse by the fact that weather-related graphics and delivery were becoming central entertainment in News delivery - ... I'm not really old enough to remember this, but I have seen old recordings of on-camera Mets actually using Sharpies to draw features on flip boards ... But look out! Here comes the age of graphics to turn it into the real lube-you-up cinema... I guess what I'm saying is that "ignorance is bliss" ? so to speak... I mean, if one was younger, they may have wanted snow and merely didn't see it as much.. And that sucked, ...but I don't think that would be as bad as this other journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's all relative of course... The decade was going badly ...then, there were glimmer of hopes in 1986 with a Novie event ( I think 1987 had one two... ), but the season didn't do much afterwards... Back to shit fests... But overall, 1987 wasn't terrible... There was a surprise event that rung up 6-10" in metro west ...supposed to be a glopper... But cold air was entrenched and way under estimated by man and models... When teeny flakes broke out and the visibility dropped to 1/4 mile it was pretty clear the forecast was in trouble... I really only remember a handful of ordeals that whole decade, purely because it was just banal, uninspired boring winters - it was really about the great nothing happening decade. And what I do remember .. disappointments out-numbered the production. There were a couple of bomogenesis events in those suggestive season years ... 1987 I think. They made the decade inimitably worse. How could a bomb make the decade worse? Well, they were supposed to redux '78 but ended up only clipping the Cape, while not much farther NW of the Canal managed dim orb sun through virga exploded cirrus. These storms were egregiously advertised... saturated air-waves criss-crossing electromagnetic death threats. I mean people were getting scared for what snow could do to cut off their heads... We were collectively under full-bird blizzard warnings clear to Fitchburg, MA and the western hills of Worcester. If you were old enough to be more into the TWC ( the only portal to the larger weather community available to the turbo dork with stolen lunch money in that era - this was pre web by a goodly margin mind you .. ), you had just enough cognition and knowledge to really feel the rub-in the NWS conspired to commit ... I mean, one of those storm there was a 4th period blizzard watch posted with dire ticker warnings scrolling on about cryospheric dystopian grid failure in hurricane wind pushed choke snow clear to almost SE Vt ... partly sunny ... Oh, but having to walk numb-faced to school ( after all ) .... in -9 F with 30 mph wind with blistering lips made it all totally worth it! Anyone sentient of matters since ... circa 1992 ...really has no idea what "bust" truly means on a spiritual level... It's like that scene on the roof in Shawshank...when Biren Hadley was languishing on about having to pay taxes on 30 thousand dollars in front of butt raped roofing-tar glazed immates ...and Morgan Freeman's character, "Red," says, " Oh. Poor Hadely - ain't he got it rough" That's 'bout how I feel for anyone since 1992 that never went through, or is aware, of the former years, that has the temerity to feel 'disappointed' .. about anything. Like shut the f up man. The era wasn't just about low results - it was about the dark art of specifically designed busts.. The decade was about "rubbing it in" - the greatest plausible set ups relative to perceivable reality ... There's also another thing about that era... in a lot of ways, it was made horrifically worse by the fact that weather-related graphics and delivery were becoming central entertainment in News delivery - ... I'm not really old enough to remember this, but I have seen old recordings of on-camera Mets actually using Sharpies to draw features on flip boards ... But look out! Here comes the age of graphics to turn it into the real lube-you-up cinema... I guess what I'm saying is that "ignorance is bliss" ? so to speak... I mean, if one was younger, they may have wanted snow and merely didn't see it as much.. And that sucked, ...but I don't think is as bad as this other journey. Nothing was worse personally for me than the February 24-25, 1989 bust...it was similar to the one you described except it did get snow back to ORH hills...just it ended up being 3-4" of sand after 1-2 feet was predicted not 24 hours earlier. We were rewarded by WBZ channel 4 with Shelby Scott reporting live from Chatham, MA under 2 feet of snow and blizzard conditions long after the arctic sand stopped falling in ORH and the sun was already poking out. The bust you described may have been either late Jan 1987 or mid Feb 1987....that was actually a good season over the interior, but one of those storms absolutely demolished the Cape while giving nary a flake to Boston-westward except a brief burst that produced an inch or so from the WAA ahead of the developing shortwave...but the main CCB never made it back northwest of SE MA and the sun was out for much of it over the interior. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0209.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0210.php Back in those days, there was always dread lurking behind the excitement of an impending storm. I was always excited, but after the first bust or two, I became wiser but at the expense of fun....we were waiting for the other shoe to drop constantly. Even in a 3-6" event. We'd see those types of events turn into an inch of slop washed away (waking up to the dreaded sound of cars splashing outside instead of that "muffled" sound of snow)....... or clear skies with stratus deck visible on the eastern horizon with semi-regularity. December 1992 was the turning point as you noted. That storm seemed to take a decade worth of frustration and turn it on its head. It was as if it almost mocked those who hated snow and started to enjoy our "new climate" of busts and underperforming snows in the 1980s and early 1990s...."here, take this 2-4" forecast and laugh about it turning into 34 inches blue cement-turning-into-powder combo." The 1990s still had their share of ratters and some busts....but you knew the tide had turned...the worst was behind us it seemed....and that feeling turned out to be prophetic as we went into the 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's 'bout how I feel for anyone since 1992 that never went through, or is aware, of the former years, that has the temerity to feel 'disappointed' .. about anything. Like shut the f up man. Well said. There were some good seasons like 87 or 88 but the 3 years that followed were putrid (save December 1989). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing was worse personally for me than the February 24-25, 1989 bust...it was similar to the one you described except it did get snow back to ORH hills...just it ended up being 3-4" of sand after 1-2 feet was predicted not 24 hours earlier. We were rewarded by WBZ channel 4 with Shelby Scott reporting live from Chatham, MA under 2 feet of snow and blizzard conditions long after the arctic sand stopped falling in ORH and the sun was already poking out. The bust you described may have been either late Jan 1987 or mid Feb 1987....that was actually a good season over the interior, but one of those storms absolutely demolished the Cape while giving nary a flake to Boston-westward except a brief burst that produced an inch or so from the WAA ahead of the developing shortwave...but the main CCB never made it back northwest of SE MA and the sun was out for much of it over the interior. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0209.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0210.php Back in those days, there was always dread lurking behind the excitement of an impending storm. I was always excited, but after the first bust or two, I became wiser but at the expense of fun....we were waiting for the other shoe to drop constantly. Even in a 3-6" event. We'd see those types of events turn into an inch of slop washed away (waking up to the dreaded sound of cars splashing outside instead of that "muffled" sound of snow)....... or clear skies with stratus deck visible on the eastern horizon with semi-regularity. December 1992 was the turning point as you noted. That storm seemed to take a decade worth of frustration and turn it on its head. It was as if it almost mocked those who hated snow and started to enjoy our "new climate" of busts and underperforming snows in the 1980s and early 1990s...."here, take this 2-4" forecast and laugh about it turning into 34 inches blue cement-turning-into-powder combo. The 1990s still had their share of ratters and some busts....but you knew the tide had turned...the worst was behind us it seemed....and that feeling turned out to be prophetic as we went into the 2000s. Yup ...add that to the list... I remember that one clearly ... 1989 ... Not sure what was up with that era and the technology. I mean, obviously ... Walter Drag and gang were not actually twiddling their mustaches scheming up ways to send doe-eyed young minds to therapy ... But, the models must've just routinely over set up scenarios? I met him on a couple occasions... One such time was back in 2005 at the SNE Storm Conference down in Brookline... By then, the scars had long since heeled and plus, I had been through under grad by then and had developed my own appreciation for how difficult deterministic weather forecasting is in this market/climate ...etc..etc... The guy earned a pass - ...Still, I didn't think to ask. I'd love to have a conversation with him and learn what it was like for them to set up civility for some of those debacles... That's an excellent way to look at the 1990s - btw... I like that turn of phrasing there... The 'prophecies' substantiated by the glut of the 2000 ( paraphrasing of course...)... and how 1992 really was a watershed season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup ...add that to the list... I remember that one clearly ... 1989 ... Not sure what was up with that era and the technology. I mean, obviously ... Walter Drag and gang were twiddling their mustaches scheming ways to send doe-eyed young minds to therapy ... But, the models must've just routinely over set up scenarios? I met him on a couple occasions... One such time was back in 2005 at the SNE Storm Conference down in Brookline... By then, the scars and long since heeled and plus, I had been through under grad and had developed my own appreciation for how difficult deterministic weather forecasting is in this market/climate ...etc..etc... The guy earned a pass - ...Still, I didn't think to ask. I'd love to have a conversation with him and learn what it was like for them to set up civility for some of those debacles... That's an excellent way to look at the 1990s - btw... I like that turn of phrasing there... The 'prophecies' substantiated by the glut of the 2000 ( paraphrasing of course...)... and how 1992 really was a watershed season... I really wish I could find it, but years and years ago, I saw a writeup on the Feb 1989 storm. It was of course in black and white PDF scanned onto some website and then printed back out. But it showed the old NGM paneled model forecast about 24 hours before the Feb 1989 storm and you could see why they were going nuts. We all remember how dry the NGM tended to be, and it was spitting out over an inch of QPF from NYC to BOS and all points in between back to ORH and HFD included. It had "the look" so to speak....not just QPF, it was thing of beauty in the midlevels with like 4 or 5 closed height contours at 850 and several at 700 even if a bit oblong. Looking at the reanalysis, you can probably see what was "supposed to happen"....that powerful southern vort energy was going to really swing around the base of the trough and "wrap back northward" and tuck that storm in closer to the coast....but the whole thing kind of gets pinched off a bit too quickly.....ugh, just looking at those panels is painful bringing back the memories that are still so vivid 30 years later: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0224.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0225.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 I recalling feeling the same way about December '92, particularly when the "Blizzard of '93" came on it's heels. It was such a turning point. Too bad I left the weather business within a couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the 1950s and 1980s were pretty big outliers that can skew the look. The 1950s were dreadful for snowfalls 6"+ in both categories over 6". Even worse than the 1980s....they seemed to try and make up for with lots of 3.0-5.9" events, but the 1956-1957 season kind of skews that decade too if we want to dig deeper. That winter had 11 events of 3.0-5.9" and ZERO 6.0"+ of any kind. No other year in the entire record even had 10, nevermind 11....2002-2003 was closest with 9, though unlike 1956-1957, the incredibly prolific 2002-2003 also had 2 events of 6-11.9" and 3 over 12". The Farmington data I hinted at. No attempt at storms under 6" as I have only the daily records, good for discrete storms especially since we moved to within 6 miles of the co-op. However, trying to untangle things like Feb. 2008 when we had 4 separate storms in 6 days with several days having accumulation early from one event and late from the next. I could do that in 2008 from my own records, but earlier similar multi-storm periods are pretty opaque. Bigger storms tend not to be "interlocked" in the same way. The data below comes from winter seasons rather than calendar years, so the 2010s include anything in OND of 2009. (Wanted to use existing sorts rather than going through entirely new ones.) The 1890s include most of 7 winters as POR begins 1/1/1893. All others are 10 years, thus the averages are based on 127 years. Decade 6-11.9" 12-17.9" 18"+ All 6"+ Largest 1890s 26 12 1 39 19.0" 1900s 46 9 2 57 21.0" 1910s 45 4 0 49 15.5" 1920s 43 8 4 55 23.0" 1930s 33 10 2 45 25.0" 1940s 30 5 2 37 30.0" Nov. 22-23 1950s 25 8 1 34 22.8" "Their Finest Hours" 1960s 38 9 4 51 43.0" 1970s 42 16 4 62 22.0" 1980s 41 6 1 48 23.0" 1990s 50 12 1 63 18.0" Superstorm 2000s 34 4 9(!) 47 40.0" (or 26.6" I still consider that 40" report for 12/6-7/2003 to be inflated.) 2010s 36 9 4 49 24.9" Totals 489 112 35 636 Avg/Year 3.85 0.88 0.28 5.01 #Yr w/1+ 125 75 29 126 1952-53's largest event was 5.5". 1954-55 had one storm of 6"+, a 15.6" dump in Feb. %Yr 1+ 98.4% 59.1% 22.8% 99.2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 The 1940s, 1950s, and 1980s seems to stand out as rather putrid years in Maine based on your data, tamarack. That actually matches ORH pretty well. I didn't have 1940s in my dataset, but if I did, they wouldn't be very good based on what I know from that decade at the older coop site. They weren't as bad as the '50s or '80s but still pretty cruddy. Your 1990s stand out for moderate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 All the big busts for pretty much anyone west of 495 in Mass all the way into NY State include storms that turned into whiffs. I feel like in the coast there’s a mix of storms that ended up being rain or whiffed to the east...but once into the interior it’s almost unheard of to be forecast 1-2 feet less than 24 hours out and have it bust because it rained 1-2” instead. Every memorable bust in the interior is “we were expecting 14-20 and got 3 inches of arctic sand.” I’m sure there are some good ones that include sleet but rare to just miss 1-2 feet because it rained. Usually it would come with a big front end or backside snow in those situations too. But whiffs are when you get the true 15” to 3” type expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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