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George BM

August Discobs 2019

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I’m not sure what relevance the “youth” have but LWX definitely does overwarn. Ian and others on Twitter discussed it just recently, and it doesn’t take a met to see that LWX often warns sub-severe stuff.

In a busy metro area where it isn’t hard to see tree damage, I get it, but it’s overdone. Ian mentioned tiered warnings, IIRC, which I certainly wouldn’t mind. Likely confusing to the general populace.

Totally off-topic, but a heck of a storm season we’ve been having. Been busy. Somewhat jealous I’m still not back in town!

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not sure what relevance the “youth” have but LWX definitely does overwarn. Ian and others on Twitter discussed it just recently, and it doesn’t take a met to see that LWX often warns sub-severe stuff.

In a busy metro area where it isn’t hard to see tree damage, I get it, but it’s overdone. Ian mentioned tiered warnings, IIRC, which I certainly wouldn’t mind. Likely confusing to the general populace.

Totally off-topic, but a heck of a storm season we’ve been having. Been busy. Somewhat jealous I’m still not back in town!

Here is what I texted my kid in response to Alexandria alert last night: 

11:08 pm June 19 2019 : " The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Alexandria. Seek indoor shelter immediately." No such happened. I want to know what this was based upon. Folks, in the end, you are crying wolf when we need to be not so.

 

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8 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

Here is what I texted my kid in response to Alexandria alert last night: 

11:08 pm June 19 2019 : " The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Alexandria. Seek indoor shelter immediately." No such happened. I want to know what this was based upon. Folks, in the end, you are crying wolf when we need to be not so.

 

While I concede that LWX can be a little trigger-happy on the warnings, you seem to be asking for a level of precision that simply is not available given the current state of the science.  Thunderstorms are inherently unpredictable--in where and when they form, how strong they become, and when they decay.  The best meteorologists can do is issue warnings for an area that appears to be at risk for severe weather. Occasionally that risk will manifest; most times it won't.  The alternative is to only warn storms they are certain will be severe, which will mean that the vast majority of storms that produce severe weather will go unwarned.

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Honestly...meh.

On the north edge as things consolidated to our south. Ended up with maybe 10 minutes of moderate rain.

Seriously...I’m not complaining just to complain. It really was underwhelming.

Quoting myself in order to get @yoda‘s take on this one.

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57 minutes ago, yoda said:

Leesburg storm now warned for 70mph gusts

That storm has weakened but is it ever presenting here an ominous look to the W/NW. Plus CG strokes out in front, prolly in Great Falls area now. 

This would be the third one of the day, although the second one was not much. Still, a bit reminiscent of June 4, 2008; one of my favorite severe days ever. Today doesn't compare to that, but the multiple rounds after the big one that comes through in the mid/late afternoon does reflect the pattern. Back then of course we had five or six rounds, it seemed; it didn't calm down until after midnight, IIRC. 

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49 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

No storms close to me but just got a big thunder clap out of no where. Sun is back lighting the clouds to my East and the colors are vibrant. Getting more thunder.

These storms have indeed had strikes far from the rain column.  I snapped this image right after a strike hit my building at work this afternoon. What would be considered the classic storm core was 8 miles to the north and we were in full sun. 

273DD8FD-0A7C-45F8-B441-E89FF2B25AE2.thumb.png.898b47f6231e75374d0f2d108ea5e469.png

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I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance.


 

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1 hour ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance.

You may want to consider asking your son to turn off the alerts.

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1 hour ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance.


 

    I've captured some links to relevant CWG tweets to explain why your phone went off:

1) https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163645178428690437/

       significant storm northwest of Alexandria moving southeast.      

2) https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm/status/1163648473989648384

 

       storm continues to look good on radar, and some wind damage is reported, so the warning is issued further downstream (including Alexandria)

3)   https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163651801536761856

          The part of the line segment heading towards Alexandria weakens, but new cells are firing near Alexandria, so the warning is continued.

4)    https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163653293228400640

           The storms for which the warning was issued weaken significantly, and the warning is dropped.   New cells fire south of Alexandria.

 

   

            No one wants needless warnings, but it's hard to find fault with the actions taken by the local NWS office.    Maybe the warning was issued too far east, but that wouldn't change anything for Alexandria.    Given the ongoing severe storm just upstream, they had to put a warning on it for the areas out ahead.      We're just not good enough yet to know when a storm like that will collapse.

 

 

 

 

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Ended up with .20" . Nothing flush . An hour or so of constant thunder though . 

Looks like Sterling's latest disco likes tomorrow better then today for a more widespread chance of convection and mentions a ff risk as well.  

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Chances of decent rain over the next few days here look meh. NAM has less than a quarter inch through Sat in my yard lol.

The front even looks like weak sauce on latest guidance. Certainly does not look like its going to deliver a widespread soaker. Same old haves/have nots stuff.

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51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Chances of decent rain over the next few days here look meh. NAM has less than a quarter inch through Sat in my yard lol.

The front even looks like weak sauce on latest guidance. Certainly does not look like its going to deliver a widespread soaker. Same old haves/have nots stuff.

Oh joy. Flooded areas get more flooding and those of us that are cleaning up fall foliage early this year due to drought get no relief. Got it

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8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Oh joy. Flooded areas get more flooding and those of us that are cleaning up fall foliage early this year due to drought get no relief. Got it

I just want some damn moisture in the hard, desert-like soil so I can loosen it up and begin the annual task of reseeding.

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33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I just want some damn moisture in the hard, desert-like soil so I can loosen it up and begin the annual task of reseeding.

You and NPZ should start a contest for driest yardscape :yikes:

Yea...EJ was right the other day  ...the whole region could use a 1-3" soaking rain . That said yesterday there were more have's then have nots for a change as far as at least wetting the pavement that I noticed but still many yards that have been constantly missed . My yard has only recently been dry ( past 2 weeks) so not a big deal yet but a couple more weeks of this then the need will for sure increase.  

Snipit from Sterling for tomorrow 

 

however we will remain moist and the flow will be parallel to
the front. So in addition to isolated strong to severe storms,
heavy rain resulting in isolated incidents of flooding will be a
concern.

In other news ..

Mostly sunny here in fed hill . Definitely not as hot it doesn't appear as Monday down here 

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14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

You and NPZ should start a contest for driest yardscape :yikes:

Yea...EJ was right the other day  ...the whole region could use a 1-3" soaking rain . That said yesterday there were more have's then have nots for a change as far as at least wetting the pavement that I noticed but still many yards that have been constantly missed . My yard has only recently been dry ( past 2 weeks) so not a big deal yet but a couple more weeks of this then the need will for sure increase.  

Snipit from Sterling for tomorrow 

 

however we will remain moist and the flow will be parallel to
the front. So in addition to isolated strong to severe storms,
heavy rain resulting in isolated incidents of flooding will be a
concern.

^^^This^^^, the 1/2 to 2 inches of rain falling in 30 minutes IS moisture, just 75-90% runs right off into gutters, curbs and creeks! That said, I'd take those 30 minutes after past week, where it thunders for an hour each afternoon then the deck barely gets wet.........

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15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

You and NPZ should start a contest for driest yardscape :yikes:

Yea...EJ was right the other day  ...the whole region could use a 1-3" soaking rain . That said yesterday there were more have's then have nots for a change as far as at least wetting the pavement that I noticed but still many yards that have been constantly missed . My yard has only recently been dry ( past 2 weeks) so not a big deal yet but a couple more weeks of this then the need will for sure increase.  

Snipit from Sterling for tomorrow 

 

however we will remain moist and the flow will be parallel to
the front. So in addition to isolated strong to severe storms,
heavy rain resulting in isolated incidents of flooding will be a
concern.

In other news ..

Mostly sunny here in fed hill . Definitely not as hot it doesn't appear as Monday down here 

This could happen with this front, if it is slow to move through and several perturbations can move along it with the front still in the area. Euro leans in that direction, while the GFS wants to basically plow the front through. Ensembles generally have it moving through more slowly. Even so, my yard would still manage to somehow miss the best precip lol.

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25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

In other news ..

Mostly sunny here in fed hill . Definitely not as hot it doesn't appear as Monday down here 

Co-worker lives in Fed Hill. Nice area, and some great views of the Inner harbor.

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25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Co-worker lives in Fed Hill. Nice area, and some great views of the Inner harbor.

I'm not going to lie I don't like commuting down here for jobs . It makes for a real long day but the truth is ...wherever the $ is I go lol. Every year I say I'm working closer to home but  almost (20 years in business/ 25 in the trade)later here I am still driving 60 to 90 minutes 1 way . Good thing i have a 4 cylinder Tacoma.  And yes this area is actually pretty nice .Many roof top decks man. Lots of well to do's live here . These renovated 100 year old 12' row homes go for $350k- 500K . Some end units or double 24' foot homes get $500K-700K

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58 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This could happen with this front, if it is slow to move through and several perturbations can move along it with the front still in the area. Euro leans in that direction, while the GFS wants to basically plow the front through. Ensembles generally have it moving through more slowly. Even so, my yard would still manage to somehow miss the best precip lol.

Yep...it be nice if it got hung up and we can get some convective training choo choo going

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I got .62 inches in my yard yesterday. Not bad. The whole time it rained I was in the movie theater. But the radar sure looked like 1" was on the table for most. But as fast as the storms grew, they died. This has been an interesting year for pop-up and stationary storms. 

By the way, it's hot outside. 

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