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George BM

August Discobs 2019

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If we can manage to warm enough ahead of this activity today there could be some significant wind reports.  This is a pretty nice system passing through and even HM is interested in it.  The current warned storm just west of Harrisonburg would probably be the biggie of the day.  It's already dropping a lot of CG and it's not even 9am.

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LWX will likely crack 500 SVRs for the year today.  They're currently at 498 including the one issued this morning.

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83.7/71.6

It's soupy. I finally got your average summer thunderstorm yesterday evening. I got .94" of rain and tons of T&L. Woo Hoo! All I ask is just two of those per week. 86.7F

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Plenty of folks at work talking about how it's supposed to rain a bunch today, then in the same breath blaming "weathermen" for sensationalizing the weather.

Just one of the problems with local news, and just one of the reasons I haven't watched *any* local news since I moved here years ago.

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Pretty good low level lapse rates today.  Really thinking we're going to see some decent wind reports from anything that fires up.

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14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Pretty good low level lapse rates today.  Really thinking we're going to see some decent wind reports from anything that fires up.

1630 SPC OTLK kept 15 wind.. but upgraded hail from 5 to 15

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Just now, yoda said:

1630 SPC OTLK kept 15 wind.. but upgraded hail from 5 to 15

Yea it makes sense.  I'm not arguing we're going to have some big squall line come through, but there's probably a case to be made to a 60 ot 65kt blue box later today owing to some beefy multi-cell clusters.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it makes sense.  I'm not arguing we're going to have some big squall line come through, but there's probably a case to be made to a 60 ot 65kt blue box later today owing to some beefy multi-cell clusters.

Hard to get excited after being literally burned by cloudless skies on days like these. But I'll remain hopefully optimistic. :-)

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Terrain induced initiation just west of Loudoun County.  

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Terrain induced initiation just west of Loudoun County.  

As well as just NE of CHO

Still waiting for our meh MCD ;)

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Just now, yoda said:

Still waiting for our meh MCD ;)

Yea watch today absolutely bust...that would be pretty loltastic.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea watch today absolutely bust...that would be pretty loltastic.

According to the zones...its the best chance of rain (today into tonight) we seem to have over the next 7 days... so hopefully we don't bust today

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Just now, yoda said:

MCD issued to our south in E VA and E NC... 80 percent chance of a watch

Summary says "watch likely" but disco says "watch possible"  heh

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Summary says "watch likely" but disco says "watch possible"  heh

Good thing we will have to wait for the next MCD which will probably be more for our area then ;) 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

MCD issued to our south in E VA and E NC... 80 percent chance of a watch

Annnd now it's gone. I get an error message when I try to see the MCD.

 

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Just now, yuki neko said:

Annnd now it's gone. I get an error message when I try to see the MCD.

 

Its up there now... it sometimes takes a few minutes for it load on SPC after it comes on Kamala

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Chasing a field of towering CU over in Delaware. Not too far (~5 mi) from the state line so i'm already in delaware in about 5-10 mins

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Just now, mappy said:

not showing up

it usually takes 5-10 minutes for some reason for the MCD to show up on SPC... its up on Kamala if you want to read it now/see the image

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

not showing up

Quote
ACUS11 KWNS 071702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071702 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-071830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2019

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 071702Z - 071830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WATCH IS
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
LINES CAPABLE OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6.5 TO 7 C/KM WILL SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL IN THIS REGION THAN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
WHERE STORM COVERAGE, INSTABILITY, AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD
OF AN MCV CURRENTLY OUT OF FAR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. A WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED SOON.



..BENTLEY/GOSS.. 08/07/2019

 

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thanks guys, SPC tweeted it. their site was loading stupidly. 

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Interesting to see winds backing a bit to the SE east of US 15.  Seems to be nudging the dews up a bit.

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SVR for Frederick, MD

Quote

he National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland...

* Until 200 PM EDT.

* At 111 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ballenger
  Creek, or 7 miles south of Harry Grove Stadium, moving northeast at
  20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches 
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as 
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by 
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. 
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Frederick, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Walkersville, New
  Market, Discovery-Spring Garden, Linganore-Bartonsville, Adamstown,
  Woodsboro, Buckeystown, Libertytown, Monrovia, Ijamsville, Mount
  Pleasant, Doubs, Park Mills and Tuscarora.

 

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