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George BM

August Discobs 2019

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9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

 Storm south of me produced awesome mammatus clouds:

 

We get all kinds of cool cloud shots from the nearby storms that always miss. Its awesome!

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If you are not getting a storm now you probably won't see anything for the rest of the evening. The ongoing cells will likely weaken and die in place as we lose the daytime heating.

Tired of these storms that fire on localized boundaries in a weakly forced environment. No trigger here away from the bays, and not close enough to the weak, diffuse boundary to the south and SW. That cold front better deliver something.

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Radarscope looks like a giant letter O with the dual north and south moving outflow boundaries

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Rotation marker and big hail marker in SE DC few minutes ago on radarscope... rotation marker is now gone and hail marker went from 2.5 to 1.5

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Last night at 11:08 pm Alexandria Va residents received a Severe Weather Warning via NWS. It woke me up and I alerted my kid. Nothing happened. Today (8/20/19 at 5:34 pm) we received another NWS Severe Thunderstorm Warning. "Seek indoor shelter immediately". So far nothing.

Is the NWS crying wolf to soon? Or too much? Serious question. 

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4 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

Last night at 11:08 pm Alexandria Va residents received a Severe Weather Warning via NWS. It woke me up and I alerted my kid. Nothing happened. Today (8/20/19 at 5:34 pm) we received another NWS Severe Thunderstorm Warning. "Seek indoor shelter immediately". So far nothing.

Is the NWS crying wolf to soon? Or too much? Serious question. 

The problem with this kind of storm setup is that there is a lot of heat/moisture to fuel the storms, but the triggers are very subtle.  Unlike a squall line or supercell where movement can be counted on, these cell just kind of ooze around and then die out.  So, putting up a warning box is especially tough.  The storm last night looked really healthy, and 30 min late it was remnant clouds.  Nature of the beast.  Not to mention, the areas that get hit by severe conditions are almost always very small.

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Honestly that was about as impressive as anything I can remember since the derecho. Dime-sized hail, winds well into the 50s (times like this I wish I had an anemometer, even a cheap handheld one), lots of CG, torrential rain. Had it all. Another one incoming. While driving I saw a couple of streets cordoned off (I'm assuming downed trees) and lots of small branches and foliage littering the streets. I have power but a good bit of the Tenleytown area doesn't. Second significant hailer (well, for around here) this season. At least dime size won't dent up the car like the larger hail from June 2 did. 

Nice to be in the sweet spot for a change. My subjective take is that upper NW has been kinda fringed a lot this season. But we were evidently bullseyed today. 

 

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dime to penny size hail 

0.27” in ten minutes 

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this kind of storm setup is that there is a lot of heat/moisture to fuel the storms, but the triggers are very subtle.  Unlike a squall line or supercell where movement can be counted on, these cell just kind of ooze around and then die out.  So, putting up a warning box is especially tough.  The storm last night looked really healthy, and 30 min late it was remnant clouds.  Nature of the beast.  Not to mention, the areas that get hit by severe conditions are almost always very small.

I understand what you are saying. I've been watching weather for years. But I am concerned for our populous,youth/younger people who may become "use to these local warnings" which do not pan out or are given too frequently .Imho, better to alert to the following as my best friend did: "On June 29, 2012, a devastating line of thunderstorms known as a derecho (deh REY cho) moved east-southeast at 60 miles per hour (mph) from Indiana in the early afternoon to the Mid-Atlantic region around midnight.

 

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2 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

I understand what you are saying. I've been watching weather for years. But I am concerned for our populous,youth/younger people who may become "use to these local warnings" which do not pan out or are given too frequently .Imho, better to alert to the following as my best friend did: "On June 29, 2012, a devastating line of thunderstorms known as a derecho (deh REY cho) moved east-southeast at 60 miles per hour (mph) from Indiana in the early afternoon to the Mid-Atlantic region around midnight.

 

So the suggestion here is for NWS to only warn storms after they've already happened? Makes sense to me :arrowhead:

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33 minutes ago, yoda said:

@mattie g

Look to our SW... two storms coming our way 

Honestly...meh.

On the north edge as things consolidated to our south. Ended up with maybe 10 minutes of moderate rain.

Seriously...I’m not complaining just to complain. It really was underwhelming.

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8 minutes ago, TSG said:

So the suggestion here is for NWS to only warn storms after they've already happened? Makes sense to me :arrowhead:

Please. I vote for serious alerts. I'm just saying "less serious alerts" so we don't "cry wolf" at all hours which imho opinion happened in my town. How do I pass otherwise the real alerts from the other, I ask you? We must distinguish! I am forever thankful to my friend who alerted me such that I took my kids to basement level. 

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27 minutes ago, TSG said:

So the suggestion here is for NWS to only warn storms after they've already happened? Makes sense to me :arrowhead:

How do you explain " seek shelter immediately' warnings within 2 days when no weather  happened then?

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53 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this kind of storm setup is that there is a lot of heat/moisture to fuel the storms, but the triggers are very subtle.  Unlike a squall line or supercell where movement can be counted on, these cell just kind of ooze around and then die out.  So, putting up a warning box is especially tough.  The storm last night looked really healthy, and 30 min late it was remnant clouds.  Nature of the beast.  Not to mention, the areas that get hit by severe conditions are almost always very small.

 

2 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

How do you explain " seek shelter immediately' warnings within 2 days when no weather  happened then?

Please see above.  Thanks

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Every time so far this week, i’ve been in the gap between Norfolk and D.C that gets 0 rain, just some thunder teasing me.

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31 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

Please. I vote for serious alerts. I'm just saying "less serious alerts" so we don't "cry wolf" at all hours which imho opinion happened in my town. How do I pass otherwise the real alerts from the other, I ask you? We must distinguish! I am forever thankful to my friend who alerted me such that I took my kids to basement level. 

I think most people on this board would agree we have had an exceptionally long and active severe season this year... well into August now. Just because your back yard got missed by a couple miles a handful of times, doesn't mean Sterling isn't doing their job well. A warning is just that.. a warning. They are telling you there is potential in your area for severe weather. It's up to the individual to look at radar, a weather app, or the sky. People need to take some personal responsibility for their safety. If someone deems it a false warning for their backyard then so be it. You can't blame that on NWS. You aren't required to take their advice.

As a "youth" I can tell you I'm very appreciative when my phone has a message that pops up saying I just got boxed for severe. I don't think anyone is crying wolf. I think we're just witnessing the natural progression of forecasting which is higher detail on a smaller scale. There are inherently going to be more "misses" with that approach because of the increased volume... but it's more accurate overall.

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No storms close to me but just got a big thunder clap out of no where. Sun is back lighting the clouds to my East and the colors are vibrant. Getting more thunder.

edited that cell to my West just popped out of no where!

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