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August Discobs 2019


George BM
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Just now, Vice-Regent said:

18z GFS on board now too? This looks promising.

The latest WPC QPF is leaning that way too. Remains to be seen where the front stalls and the impact of waves moving along it. Your area should be in a good spot esp beyond Tuesday afternoon with the initial round of (severe?) convection.

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23 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Tuesday continues to look potentially active. Mount Holly's thoughts this morning-

On Tuesday, the aforementioned low pressure, associated with a decaying MCS from the source region, will push a frontal boundary into the forecast area. The exact placement of this boundary will dictate the resulting convective evolution throughout the day Tuesday, nevertheless the environment is likely to be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Being that this event will be driven by primarily by mesoscale processes, details are still a bit unclear at this range, however all severe weather modes (including damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail) will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Deep layer shear is forecast to be in the 35-40 kt range with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some guidance has impressive low-level wind shear profiles and low-level curvature to the hodographs for this time of year. Precipitable water values will be high as well (well over 2") so flash flooding will be a threat where the heaviest storms begin to train over the same areas.

 

I can tell you exactly where that boundary will not be placed...

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3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I can tell you exactly where that boundary will not be placed...

I was you for most of July. Rain shield was placed squarely over my yard. Been doing better lately, but the damage was done. 2-3 weeks with little to no rain in July torches everything.

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17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was you for most of July. Rain shield was placed squarely over my yard. Been doing better lately, but the damage was done. 2-3 weeks with little to no rain in July torches everything.

I hear ya.

We've had essentially no rain since the second-to-last weekend of July (so around the 22nd or so), which was when we were slated to get at least a couple inches of rain over the weekend and into the beginning of the following week. I think we had 0.20" from that whole event, which puts us at nearly three weeks since our last measurable rain. Added to that, we were definitely drier than normal in early July, as well, so it's been pretty rough going.

I hate complaining about this stuff, but it's getting super frustrating.

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Just now, mattie g said:

I hear ya.

We've had essentially no rain since the second-to-last weekend of July (so around the 22nd or so), which was when we were slated to get at least a couple inches of rain over the weekend and into the beginning of the following week. I think we had 0.20" from that whole event, which puts us at nearly three weeks since our last measurable rain. Added to that, we were definitely drier than normal in early July, as well, so it's been pretty rough going.

I hate complaining about this stuff, but it's getting super frustrating.

It does get frustrating. I really enjoyed making posts complaining about failing to get rain in every possible way. Yoda seemed to like them. :lol:

Have at it!

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43 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

1.79" since the deluge on 7/8.  50% of climo rainfall during the hottest part of the year is going to fry stuff no matter what happened before that.

No doubt.

The hydrangeas that get more sun than others would be dead or nearly so if I hadn't watered them intermittently (and somewhat heavily) in the last couple weeks.

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My call for tomorrow:

- Central and Northern Maryland and up through central PA get raked

- Richmond to just south of Fredericksburg and a bit to their west get raked

- Burke gets enough thunder to close the pool, an outflow boundary comes through and sets off storms just to the west, then they train up through very northern Fairfax, Loudoun, and Montgomery Counties. I get left with a couple drops of spittle that leave pocky dust marks on the cars.

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