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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Chris @bluewave you were right no real heat in sight which is good but I was wrong I thought we’d get some 90’s late August early September. 

Sneaky chance at 90 this Fri/Sat for the hottest spots but unlikely otherwise. 

1st of September doesn't look very warm either and 90s are hard to come by after 9/10.

Strongly negative -EPO should keep cooler air masses nearby. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sneaky chance at 90 this Fri/Sat for the hottest spots but unlikely otherwise. 

1st of September doesn't look very warm either and 90s are hard to come by after 9/10.

if the GFS is right-it's a very cool Labor Day weekend with temps in the 60's and 70's.

gfs_T2m_neus_22.png

gfs_T2m_neus_26.png

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The IOD just rose above +1 for the first time since 2015. So there are currently cooler SST departures near Indonesia. Be interesting to see if some semblance of this pattern lingers into winter and can result in less Maritime Continent MJO forcing. But the warmth near and west of the dateline has been associated with a more active MJO in general. Also the very strong +NPM with near record SST warmth from just off the equator and northward. 

950404DF-7CC6-4EF1-BF53-BD67D6787289.png.fdfb9f0a36d4704f71c8658d3a73aafd.png

B76E8FFD-B218-4C36-9003-62750A1F194C.png.de93765420949610c8000a9ae971fd26.png

 

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What a beautiful last 3 days and very nice August in general it's basically been hot for 1 week in August. August should end up + .5 to + 1 for most locations in our area which is basically normal if you use the new 1990 to 2019 averages. 

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sneaky chance at 90 this Fri/Sat for the hottest spots but unlikely otherwise. 

1st of September doesn't look very warm either and 90s are hard to come by after 9/10.

Strongly negative -EPO should keep cooler air masses nearby. 

ECM more enthused with the Fri - Sun transient heat opportunity than the GFS.  Beyond there still looks warm to potentially hot sometime between Sep 4 - 7.  ECM had blunted that signal a bit of the last few runs. Otherwise more days like today - not many complaints.

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8/26 high  temps

Newark -75

Islip -74

Cpk-74

Lag -73

Jfk -73

1

Wonder why no one post temps when we're almost 10 degrees below normal this makes 7 days of sub 80 degree High temps for Central Park with tomorrow the 8th and Saturday has a chance if the cold front comes through early enough and stronger as guidance has trended the last few runs which would make nine. Can anybody tell me what the record number of sub 80-degree high temperatures for Central Park is for the month of August

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6 minutes ago, binbisso said:

8/26 high  temps

Newark -75

Islip -74

Cpk-74

Lag -73

Jfk -73

1

Wonder why no one post temps when we're almost 10 degrees below normal this makes 7 days of sub 80 degree High temps for Central Park with tomorrow the 8th and Saturday has a chance if the cold front comes through early enough and stronger as guidance has trended the last few runs which would make nine. Can anybody tell me what the record number of sub 80-degree high temperatures for Central Park is for the month of August

2007 had 6 straight sub 80 degree days including 3 below 70. The coldest being 59

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16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

2007 had 6 straight sub 80 degree days including 3 below 70. The coldest being 59

Wow I don't recall that that's impressive. I remember days like that when I was younger growing up in the 70s and 80s when we used to get strong cood fronts  in August and cold shots like what you just posted above but I don't recall that in the last 15 years.

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43 minutes ago, binbisso said:

8/26 high  temps

Newark -75

Islip -74

Cpk-74

Lag -73

Jfk -73

1

Wonder why no one post temps when we're almost 10 degrees below normal this makes 7 days of sub 80 degree High temps for Central Park with tomorrow the 8th and Saturday has a chance if the cold front comes through early enough and stronger as guidance has trended the last few runs which would make nine. Can anybody tell me what the record number of sub 80-degree high temperatures for Central Park is for the month of August

The record is 24 days, which was set in 1903.

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45 minutes ago, binbisso said:

 

Wonder why no one post temps when we're almost 10 degrees below normal this makes 7 days of sub 80 degree High temps for Central Park with tomorrow the 8th and Saturday has a chance if the cold front comes through early enough and stronger as guidance has trended the last few runs which would make nine. Can anybody tell me what the record number of sub 80-degree high temperatures for Central Park is for the month of August

People post the temperatures daily, so don't know what point you are trying to make. @SACRUS, @CIK62, and @donsutherland1 post the temperatures on an almost daily basis. We are also nowhere near the record number of sub 80-degree high temperatures for Central Park. The month is still slightly above average. 

 

EDIT: I see @donsutherland1 answered your question.

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

2007 had 6 straight sub 80 degree days including 3 below 70. The coldest being 59

1992 also had 3 or 4 sub 70 days in early August.  Not to say this month's recent cool isnt impressive, happening with no meaningful rainfal.   Tomorrow will make 8 at the park (3 at 79).  Sunday would likely offer the next below 80 high at NYC.   

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Much of the region experienced its coolest temperatures since June. Select low temperatures included:

Boston: 57° (lowest since 6/14: 54°)
Bridgeport: 57° (lowest since 6/15: 56°)
Islip: 59° (lowest since 8/11: 58°)
New York City: 61° (lowest since 6/22: 61°)
Newark: 59° (lowest since 6/15: 56°)
Philadelphia: 61° (lowest since 6/23: 61°)
Poughkeepsie: 48° (lowest since 6/12: 47°)

In western North America, a period of much above normal temperatures is developing in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures is underway in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the current week.

Many locations exceeded their daily record high temperatures by 5° or more. Select daily records included: Amsterdam: 86°; Bergen, Norway: 75°; Deelen, Netherlands: 90°; Haugesund, Norway: 77°; Humberside, UK: 88° (old record: 77°); Koksijde, Belgium: 86° (old record: 78°); Kristiansund, Norway: 79° (old record: 70°); Le Touquet, France: 86°; London-Gatwick: 86°; London-Heathrow: 90° (old record: 82°); Marham, UK: 88° (old record: 79°); Northolt, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Orsta-Volda, Norway: 81° (old record: 70°); Ostend, Belgium: 84° (old record: 76°); Poitiers, France: 97°; Rotterdam: 86°; Stansted, UK: 90° (old record: 81°); Stavanger, Norway: 79°; Vlieland,Netherlands: 82°; Waddington, UK: 88° (old record: 79°); and, Woensdrecht, Netherlands: 88°.

In the southern United States, extreme heat again baked parts of New Mexico and Texas. Records included: Abilene, TX: 109°; Carlsbad, NM: 110° (new August record); Lubbock, TX: 109° (new August record); Midland, TX: 113° (new August record); and, Roswell, NM: 111° (new August record).

Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.

In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 80%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +0.18 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.956. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature.

There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°.

On August 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.187 (RMM). The August 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.316.

Finally, New York City has an implied 54% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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cool spells at the end of August had temps below 55 in years past...the coolest temp ever recorded in NYC during August is 50 set in 1885...This record was tied on the 29th-30th in 1965 with two days with a low of 50...1976 tied the record with 50 degrees on the 31st...1982 hit 50 on the 29th...1986 hit 50 on the 29th...these were clear cool nights...1965, 1976, 1982 and 1986 were developing el nino years...the coolest August temp since then was 56 in 2007...a cool clammy day with rain and a max of 59...that tied the lowest Aug max day for NYC...record lows were common in August and September in the 1960's...August 15th 1963 set a record low of 55...A year later in 1964 the record was broken with a low of 54...NYC set a record low of 49 on September 16th 1961...that record was broken with a 48 in 1964...that record was broken in 1966 with a temp of 47 which still stands...

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8 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

Westhampton may dip below 50 degrees tonight as per nws. 864f698f3abef7b36330c52ef26922b2.jpg

KFOK @ 47*

I'm @ 49*

 

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The last 5 days of August are averaging 72degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is  +0.6[76.0].        August should end at  +0.1[75.3].

65.6* here at 6am.

Dorian wants to rain itself out over Florida during Holiday, with 2"-4"+ generally, Sunday-----Tues.

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Tough to generate much heat here in August with such a strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern.

 

CE8E7FDB-6F93-4C69-AA33-39133D5CC138.gif.091403139c3d54c6f1e3d9486344d0f4.gif

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tough to generate much heat here in August with such a strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern.

 

CE8E7FDB-6F93-4C69-AA33-39133D5CC138.gif.091403139c3d54c6f1e3d9486344d0f4.gif

We're way overdue for a -NAO regime for the winter. With it being so dominate this summer, I've got a good vibe that we finally cash in.

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4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

54 for the low in Syosset. 

53 here. Forecast low was 59. 54 at ISP as well.

53 is impressive for late August. 

To me the pattern since spring has been annoying. No sustained warmth, but still above average. These intermittent cool shots are weak and took the bite out of summer.

we have all year to be cool, we need to roast all summer. 

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Pretty typical this decade to get a large August high temperature drop  after reaching 100 in July.

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Aug
Season
2019 94 100 93 100
2018 96 97 98 98
2017 101 98 91 101
2016 90 99 98 99
2015 92 95 93 95
2014 88 93 92 93
2013 96 100 90 100
2012 98 101 93 101
2011 97 104 92 104
2010 96 103 95 103

 

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