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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

where is this big cool down i keep hearing about? The lowest high i see is 83, with no lows under 67. Am i missing something?

Nope that's it

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20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

where is this big cool down i keep hearing about? The lowest high i see is 83, with no lows under 67. Am i missing something?

There’s a new definition of a summer cool down during the 2010’s. EWR, LGA, JFK, and NYC have a few days with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s. Less warm is the new cool. 

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16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nope that's it

and there are signs of the ridge returning during the second half of the month

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

all the meso models i've looked at show an active sea breeze tomorrow

yep. ensemble approach would easily give the city 1-2" but a good number of those are showing 3-5" in swaths with off/on thunderstorms from 2-9PM. 

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5 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

storms love sitting just north of jersey city, it seems every time I look at the radar theres a storm parked over the area.

We've definitely been getting lucky this year!

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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There’s a new definition of a summer cool down during the 2010’s. EWR, LGA, JFK, and NYC have a few days with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s. Less warm is the new cool. 

I remember when it used to get into the 50's on a cool July or August morning...Now anything below 65 is considered cool...

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Big wet day forecast for Tues. 8/13. About 0.4 inches of rain on that day. This is not a random prediction as it is being supported by 4 of 7 models at this point.

Not sure whether or not this is a prediction I can be confident in. It’s still 7 days in advance and I’m having a hard time agreeing with this prediction.

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

where is this big cool down i keep hearing about? The lowest high i see is 83, with no lows under 67. Am i missing something?

It depends where you are, my lows on two nights are forecasted to be 59.  Nothing crazy, but a brief break before we heat up again.

Bluewave is right on the money with the "less warm" idea like Rob mentioned.

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Although unlikely, wondering(and by wondering, I mean hoping lol) if that storm can maintain intensity into the NY metro area

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Hopefully tomorrow we can finally get some rain here, lawns are seriously dried up, and practically no rain since the deluge late last month. 

What a dream pattern this would've been in the winter. There would be countless KU opportunities. The Euro is setting up another Baffin Bay block next week. With our luck we'll be right back to roaring Pacific jet, +NAO by Dec. 

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

sI remember when it used to get into the 50's on a cool July or August morning...Now anything below 65 is considered cool...

I remember late August nights in the Catskills in the low 30sand even one rainy afternoon back in the 1970s where daytime highs were in the upper 40's and low 50's in mid august

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully tomorrow we can finally get some rain here, lawns are seriously dried up, and practically no rain since the deluge late last month. 

What a dream pattern this would've been in the winter. There would be countless KU opportunities. The Euro is setting up another Baffin Bay block next week. With our luck we'll be right back to roaring Pacific jet, +NAO by Dec. 

Yea very dry out there

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3 hours ago, doncat said:

81/70 split here today, missed the showers.

Below normal isn’t it. Let’s face it the real summer is done

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4 hours ago, psv88 said:

where is this big cool down i keep hearing about? The lowest high i see is 83, with no lows under 67. Am i missing something?

the heart of the trough is in the great lakes, we're on the eastern edge of the cooler/drier air-plus with crazy +SST anomolies, forget anything that hits and holds....

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Severe tomorrow looks good.  0Z CAMs showing enough bulk shear to organize things, and oodles of CAPE by our standards.  Heck, there’s enough low level shear that someone might see a spinny updraft.

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8 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

It depends where you are, my lows on two nights are forecasted to be 59.  Nothing crazy, but a brief break before we heat up again.

Bluewave is right on the money with the "less warm" idea like Rob mentioned.

Agreed, Upton has 56 for my lows Saturday and Sunday mornings with my normal being 60 so nothing  crazy but a few lovely days nonetheless.

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Next 8 days averaging 76.5degs., or 0.5deg. AN.

74.8* here, at 6am.

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13 hours ago, psv88 said:

where is this big cool down i keep hearing about? The lowest high i see is 83, with no lows under 67. Am i missing something?

Was thinking the same thing. Using NWS I see mid and upper 80s except 83 on Sat. Two nights in the upper 60s as well. To be fair what does a early Aug cool down look like? As much as I can remember, the only way I know to hold temps to "cool" levels in early Aug is clouds and showers.  It's a break in humidity that makes it relatively "cool"

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21 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

congrats li

One of the more impressive cloud to water lightning displays south of Jones Beach this summer.

 

05753FDF-C399-4EAC-AF48-46D755B44D81.thumb.png.496d953cccb1e184feb095512ec02ee8.png

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We definitely just bolted from the blue here in Merrick.  Got a massive clap of thunder.  A strike must have come from the cells to the south  

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