Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The steam makes a return for Wednesday. Mid 70’s dewpoints coupled with PWATS around 2.00”. Plenty of high octane juice for heavy convection.

 

7003C335-216E-47E2-969C-FBD0F76C63B9.thumb.png.cc8061800017928aebae6ac19cd8207f.png

BE8403EB-42D1-402D-86C0-6878E71C56A8.png.5572537d5d930a12c1fc53611067e903.png

 

Looks like more potential for a flash flood warning!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The city may see a storm today as the upper low to our S/SW moves overhead. NJ should see widespread storms, probably same for the Hudson Valley. LI, maybe something isolated today.

Tomorrow looks good for everyone. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Looks like more potential for a flash flood warning!

That’s what it’s looking like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Deep layer shear isn't terrible tomorrow, might see some organization and severe wind.  Obviously tons of moisture and good low-level lapse rates.  Should be a stormy day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The steam makes a return for Wednesday. Mid 70’s dewpoints coupled with PWATS around 2.00”. Plenty of high octane juice for heavy convection.

 

7003C335-216E-47E2-969C-FBD0F76C63B9.thumb.png.cc8061800017928aebae6ac19cd8207f.png

BE8403EB-42D1-402D-86C0-6878E71C56A8.png.5572537d5d930a12c1fc53611067e903.png

 

We could use one of those 2”+ type days. Newly planted Trees are starting to brown on the wantagh parkway. It’s pretty par for the course for the south shore, we seem to get a local drought at some point most summers. That’s why historically the immediate south shore had a strip of pitch pine scrub forest which can handle dry better then deciduous trees like tulips found on the north shore 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We could use one of those 2”+ type days. Newly planted Trees are starting to brown on the wantagh parkway. It’s pretty par for the course for the south shore, we seem to get a local drought at some point most summers. That’s why historically the immediate south shore had a strip of pitch pine scrub forest which can handle dry better then deciduous trees like tulips found on the north shore 

We’ll probably have to rely on these convective events for our rainfall chances a while longer. Some hints from the EPS weeklies that the tropics will become active in September.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1158519860537651201

ECMWF weekly guidance FINALLY suggests a relaxation of the sinking branch over the Atlantic after September 10th. This could coincide with an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the basin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll probably have to rely on these convective events for our rainfall chances a while longer. Some hints from the EPS weeklies that the tropics will become active in September.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1158519860537651201

ECMWF weekly guidance FINALLY suggests a relaxation of the sinking branch over the Atlantic after September 10th. This could coincide with an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the basin.

with 9/10 being the tropical peak, (and action getting going after that date) looks like a possible down year as JB and some other have opined.   Looks pretty dead out in the MDR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with 9/10 being the tropical peak, (and action getting going after that date) looks like a possible down year as JB and some other have opined.   Looks pretty dead out in the MDR.

Does a dead Atlantic mean an active winter? 2009 & 2013/2014 comes to mind. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with 9/10 being the tropical peak, (and action getting going after that date) looks like a possible down year as JB and some other have opined.   Looks pretty dead out in the MDR.

Yeah the MDR is doa. What I’m looking for this year is for a wave to make it close to home before developing and take advantage of the bathtub between Hatteras and Bermuda. Something like a Bob. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Does a dead Atlantic mean an active winter? 2009 & 2013/2014 comes to mind. 

I always thought it was the other way around-lots of Atlantic storms equaled cold/snowy east coast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I always thought it was the other way around-lots of Atlantic storms equaled cold/snowy east coast

Not always.  That wasn’t the case in 96-97 and 05-06

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

with 9/10 being the tropical peak, (and action getting going after that date) looks like a possible down year as JB and some other have opined.   Looks pretty dead out in the MDR.

US Hurricane landfalls have been more backloaded since 2014. More October landfalls than JJA combined since 2014.The Joaquin 1000 year floods trough interaction in 2015 isn’t included since there was no landfall. But plenty of flood damage.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html

2010 None
2011 Aug NC, 1 1 952 75 Irene
2012 Aug LA, 1 1 966 70 Isaac
2012 Oct * NY, 1 1 942 65 Sandy
2013 None
2014 Jul NC, 2 2 973 85 Arthur
2015 None
2016 Sep FL, NW1 1 981 70 Hermine
2016 Oct * FL, NE2; GA, 1; SC, 1; NC, 1 2 963 85 Matthew
2017 Aug TX,S 4 4 937 115 Harvey
2017 Sep FL,SW 4,SE 1 4 931 115 Irma
2017 Oct LA 1, MS 1 1 983 65 Nate
2018 Sep NC 1 1 956 80 Florence
2018 Oct FL, NW 5; I-GA 2 5 919 140 Michael

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Torrential downpour in midtown from that little cell that just fired.

Doesnt look like its moving at all either. Its dry looking down toward City Hall but I see rain just few blocks north and midtown is completely obscured in heavy rain now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last evenings Aurora Borealis from the Adirondacks. Violet colored pillars filled the night sky as a weak geometric solar storm affected Earth. This was a new photography spot and dealing with the light pollution was very challenging.

Q2UE8By.jpg

 

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a drop of rain on the uws. Everyone should cash in tomorrow though.

Nothing measurable at my station yet this month....very variable around the area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is one of those days when the ocean temperature is warmer that the air temperature at the beach. SST’s continue in the upper 70’s without any August major heat. More fuel for high dewpoints  and heavy rains around the region.

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1850            75 77  170/  8/ 10 1011.0          2/ 9
20 S Fire Island 1850            75 78  190/  2/  4 1011.3          2/ 9
Great South Bay  1815            75 80   CALM  /  4   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1850            72      10/  8/ 10 1011.5          3/ 8
15 E Barnegat Li 1830               79                N/A           2/18
Hudson Canyon    1850            78 79   80/  4/  6 1011.0          3/ 8
Jones Beach      N/A     75 N/A N/A S6          N/A
Breezy Point     N/A     75 N/A N/A S10         N/A

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Firm has summer outing scheduled for tomorrow, starting at 1, they want to cancel due to rain, im not sure it rains out here before 5. Thoughts?

Tough call.  With the high dewpoints/PWATS-storms could pop anywhere at anytime tomorrow. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

all the meso models i've looked at show an active sea breeze tomorrow

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Either the EURO WEEKLIES have a problem, or we do-----because the predicted anomaly over the next 6 weeks+ is at a record +5F, it would appear.      This is from yesterday's output.     The CFSv2 looks like the antipodes to the EURO, however.     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×