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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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These big Canadian highs are lining up like planes coming into an airport. Next one is scheduled to arrive around Labor Day.

 

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74E2944B-CF85-4C7E-A24D-FB545CF53C39.thumb.png.abd69c276b26a9a804bc0a4b0aa08caa.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

These big Canadian highs are lining up like planes coming into an airport. Next one is scheduled to arrive around Labor Day.

 

57CBF348-C518-471A-8848-E21B2C7E4506.thumb.png.8db073fa2daa0a389307af78fd7c8988.png

74E2944B-CF85-4C7E-A24D-FB545CF53C39.thumb.png.abd69c276b26a9a804bc0a4b0aa08caa.png

Hopefully that bodes well for winter.

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2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Hopefully that bodes well for winter.

Probably too early to tell about next winter. But we got a hint last fall with the unusual Pacific SST configuration and the rare SOI reversal. Maybe we get some type of signal this fall or we just have to wait until the winter. Every single DJFM this decade had some surprise not well seen in advance. This decade has been very unique for the odd combination of competing influences. 

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6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

As I was going to the Dutchess County fair yesterday, i noticed the trees starting to change  colors.

It gets dark around 715pm now

Autumn is coming =)

sunset is at 7:37 here tonight-hard to see how it's dark at 7:15....

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This morning featured temperatures in the 60s in the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas and 50s outside the cities. Select low temperatures included:

Islip: 61° (lowest since 8/12: 60°)
New York City: 63° (lowest since 8/11: 63°)
Newark: 62° (lowest since 6/24: 62°)
Poughkeepsie: 52° (lowest since 8/11: 51°)

Tonight will likely feature the lowest temperatures of this cool shot. Some of the guidance suggests that the temperature could fall below 60° in Central Park on Monday morning. The last time the temperature fell below 60° in August in New York City was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°. A reading of 60° remains more likely, as the implied probability of a temperature below 60° in Central Park is approximately 40%. The current cool spell will likely last into mid-week.

In western North America, a period of much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada over the next day or two.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures is underway in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week.

Daily record high temperatures included: Benson, UK: 90°; Birmingham, UK: 86°; Brize Norton, UK: 88°; Dresden, Germany: 90°; East Midlands, UK: 86°; Humberside, UK: 82°; London-Gatwick: 88°; London-Heathrow: 91°; Marham, UK: 88°; Northolt, UK: 91°; Satenas, Sweden: 75°; St. Gatien, France: 88°; Stansted, UK: 90°; Stavanger, Norway: 77°; and, Wittering, UK: 88°.

Paris also reached a near-record high 90°.

In the United States, record heat covered a portion of the Southern United States. Records included: Carlsbad, NM: 108°; Raton, NM: 97°; Midland, TX: 108° (new August record); and, Roswell, NM: 109° (new August record).

Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.

In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 73%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -5.28 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.655. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature.

There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°.

On August 24, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.314 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.240.

Finally, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

sunset is at 7:37 here tonight-hard to see how it's dark at 7:15....

It is

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It's more than nice out.  It's niiiiice.  I checked weather.gov and tonight's forecast is "100% chance of feeling like you're out on the deck with a cold adult beverage and the crickets are singing.  Winds light and variable."  This AI stuff is getting scarily human.

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Summer heat is over... the best part of the summer is on its way... hot in the sun but cool in the shade 0 humidity and highs in the 70’s and 80’s what more do you want?

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13 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Summer heat is over... the best part of the summer is on its way... hot in the sun but cool in the shade 0 humidity and highs in the 70’s and 80’s what more do you want?

For the answer to that you'll have to go the, what time did it really get dark? thread above. As always .... 

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Next 8 days averaging 72degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +0.9[76.4].         August should end near [75.6].     Depending on what is going to be used as the August average, this is near +0.4.     GFSx is different.

62.7* here at 6am.    62.3* at 7am, moderate overcast.

Dorian to give Florida a wet Holiday weekend?

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Strong -EPO pattern with plenty of Canadian high pressure. You can see how much the Northeast Pacific has warmed yet again in recent months. NPM has shot back up to +2.70.

0F9AE2F3-B822-492C-A250-2C0CD5324581.png.13045f0ed20cc12390e6921d08f19efe.png

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55 here for the low-have to go back to June for a nightly low like that.   With some big Canadian highs on tap, looks like the back of summer has been broken...

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

These big Canadian highs are lining up like planes coming into an airport. Next one is scheduled to arrive around Labor Day.

 

57CBF348-C518-471A-8848-E21B2C7E4506.thumb.png.8db073fa2daa0a389307af78fd7c8988.png

74E2944B-CF85-4C7E-A24D-FB545CF53C39.thumb.png.abd69c276b26a9a804bc0a4b0aa08caa.png

reminds me a little of early Sept. 1992...1992-93 could be an analog for the winter if the enso stays neutral until mid winter when el nino made a come back...

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18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

61 last night. Way too early for this. We have October for this. Bring back the heat

 

14 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Pool days are likely over as water temps plunged. :(

yep-unless it's heated forget about it.   Ocean/sound still warm, but who wants to go in when it's only 72 outside...a far cry this year from last year's hot August.    

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22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

61 last night. Way too early for this. We have October for this. Bring back the heat

I agree.  It feels even cooler than that with some clouds, low humidity and windy. Doesnt have to be oppressive heat, but I'd like a little more warmth before the season is over. Or even these temps with a touch more humidity and light wind would feel more summer like but still comfortable. Probably an un popular opinion but I like to get the most out of all seasons.

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9 minutes ago, dWave said:

I agree.  It feels even cooler than that with some clouds, low humidity and windy. Doesnt have to be oppressive heat, but I'd like a little more warmth before the season is over. Or even these temps with a touch more humidity and light wind would feel more summer like but still comfortable. Probably an un popular opinion but I like to get the most out of all seasons.

We warm up next few days back into the 80's for most here.   Next chance of cooler weather towards Sun/Mon....

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I'm fine with a little more heat before the end of the summer as long as we don't have another July in September situation next month. Fortunately that looks pretty unlikely.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

61 last night. Way too early for this. We have October for this. Bring back the heat

I've been bottoming out at 59 of late these mornings.  Feels refreshing outside in the morning.

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45 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Excellent weather for working outside so I’ll take it. Hopefully we do not end up drying out as it’s still peak growing season. 

it's the CMC but LOL, it finds a way for everything to miss us....

gem_apcpn_neus_30.png

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