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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, TriPol said:

We still on track for tomorrow?

yeah, i think so. looks like an evening/overnight event for the most part. instability is lower than today but shear is fcst to be considerably stronger. 

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57 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

yeah, i think so. looks like an evening/overnight event for the most part. instability is lower than today but shear is fcst to be considerably stronger. 

Low cape, high shear....maybe some isolated overnight weak spinners? 

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

yeah, i think so. looks like an evening/overnight event for the most part. instability is lower than today but shear is fcst to be considerably stronger. 

the shear and lapse rates come in a bit too late for a really good event, no?  3 hrs earler and it would be something.

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8/21

ACY: 92
PHL: 92
LGA: 91
BLM: 91
New Bnswk: 91
TEB: 90
EWR: 89
TTN: 89
NYC: 87
JFK: 88
ISP: 85

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Next 8 days averaging 74degs., or 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.4[77.1].       Should be +1.4[76.2] by the 30th.

74.8* here at 6am.

 

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Today will be our last 90 degree day potential for a while before the pattern changes. Looks like the record -NAO/-AO limited the number of 90 degree days this year. So we will finish with fewer 90 degree days than several other warm seasons this decade. 

 

4964D0D0-09CF-4F19-ABB2-480F7DF6A3A2.gif.98fe64818fbf65885b8561b197018feb.gif

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
2019 22 132
2018 36 0
2017 22 0
2016 40 0
2015 35 0
2014 15 0
2013 25 0
2012 33 0
2011 31 0
2010 54 0

 

 

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11 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Meanwhile, nearly 5" here since Saturday. That can only mean congrats south of 84 this winter. 

Yeah I was up and around Dutchess County on Tuesday and the difference in how lush things are is amazing if you know what to look for. Most people probably wouldn't notice the minor details that tell the story. In the hills east of Rhinebeck (where you are?) even the neglected old closed up farms looked like they could spin right back up whereas here they just look ratty and browned out.

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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Today will be our last 90 degree day potential for a while before the pattern changes. Looks like the record -NAO/-AO limited the number of 90 degree days this year. So we will finish with fewer 90 degree days than several other warm seasons this decade. 

 

4964D0D0-09CF-4F19-ABB2-480F7DF6A3A2.gif.98fe64818fbf65885b8561b197018feb.gif

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
2019 22 132
2018 36 0
2017 22 0
2016 40 0
2015 35 0
2014 15 0
2013 25 0
2012 33 0
2011 31 0
2010 54 0

 

 

Now the wildcard is, as it has been in the last several years especially, how much warmth will September feature?  Curious to see how many 90's we can get.

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with the NW Atlantic SST well above normal, hard to see how September doesn't feature at least some heat and humidity and perhaps alot of it....

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

with the NW Atlantic SST well above normal, hard to see how September doesn't feature at least some heat and humidity and perhaps alot of it....

I think a few close TS will take a big bite out of those SSTs. 

1st week of September could be near or slightly BN and 90s are tough to hit after September 10. 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah I was up and around Dutchess County on Tuesday and the difference in how lush things are is amazing if you know what to look for. Most people probably wouldn't notice the minor details that tell the story. In the hills east of Rhinebeck (where you are?) even the neglected old closed up farms looked like they could spin right back up whereas here they just look ratty and browned out.

Yeah, that's a good observation. I'm a little south of there (just down the street from the deadly plane crash last week, if you read about it), but it's the same story throughout northern Dutchess. Makes me very curious about local variations in foliage color this fall between wet areas and those that have gotten skunked. 

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12 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

the shear and lapse rates come in a bit too late for a really good event, no?  3 hrs earler and it would be something.

500/700mb winds increase pretty quickly 21-22Z on the latest RAP. Mid-level lapse rates were excellent on the 12Z IAD sounding but poor around here. That area is forecast to shift this way during the afternoon. Dry air is the main inhibitor to better instability this afternoon. First area to watch will be northeast PA along the front - most guidance kills those off as they move off the mountains to the SE towards us...maybe a slight chance here as early as 5-6PM. Energy back in Ohio now will arrive this evening, so the higher storm chances in the city are probably like 8-11PM. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Today will be our last 90 degree day potential for a while before the pattern changes. Looks like the record -NAO/-AO limited the number of 90 degree days this year. So we will finish with fewer 90 degree days than several other warm seasons this decade. 

 

4964D0D0-09CF-4F19-ABB2-480F7DF6A3A2.gif.98fe64818fbf65885b8561b197018feb.gif

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
2019 22 132
2018 36 0
2017 22 0
2016 40 0
2015 35 0
2014 15 0
2013 25 0
2012 33 0
2011 31 0
2010 54 0

 

 

Definitely a better summer than last year, but I'm still left wondering when we'll get a non-historically humid summer. 

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think a few close TS will take a big bite out of those SSTs. 

1st week of September could be near or slightly BN and 90s are tough to hit after September 10. 

Agree on both-doubt there's many 90's in the month but I could see a stretch of 80-85's with high dews....

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The SST departures along the West Coast are even more impressive.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1164268312806789121

The highly anomalous warm ocean temperatures across the North Pacific ("Return of #TheBlob"?) are making their presence known along the far NorCal coast...

The high temperature at the office here on Woodley Island has climbed to 78 degrees as of 1 PM today. This will shatter the previous daily record for Eureka of 73 degrees set in 1971. #CAwx

 

Return of the -EPO this winter?

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably 0 to 3 more 90 degrees in September if the 2010’s pattern holds. That is the number of 90 degree days in September following 5 or less in August. The 4 or more Septembers generally followed double digit 90 degree day Augusts. September 90 degree days are in the missing count column.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
2019 3 ?
2018 14 4
2017 2 3
2016 13 5
2015 13 5
2014 2 3
2013 3 1
2012 7 2
2011 4 0
2010 11 6

Unusually high number of near miss 88,89 degree days in the area . 

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Still think, albeit transient  heat, between 8/30-9/1 we may be able to see some 90 degree readings. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think a few close TS will take a big bite out of those SSTs. 

1st week of September could be near or slightly BN and 90s are tough to hit after September 10. 

3 of the last 4 years featured a ton of 90 degree days...many of them 95 ir above. We can easily get 90s...youve been downplaying heat for awhile now as i now am in the midst of my 2nd longest heatwave of the season

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2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Definitely a better summer than last year, but I'm still left wondering when we'll get a non-historically humid summer. 

Our big jump in summer dewpoints  coincided with the global moisture surge following the 15-16 super El Niño. 2017 was our coolest summer of the last 4 years. But the dewpoints were still very high. So it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll see a less humid summer again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1163204080568819712

5AE4B9E4-E5BD-48B6-B105-D9819F14B254.thumb.jpeg.72a92f37048a6faba07ea1b12b00b521.jpeg

DFCDD463-5F8A-40F2-92CE-CD99266BAFCB.jpeg.508777abe748fa3d773cf851e2054a0f.jpeg

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Still think, albeit transient  heat, between 8/30-9/1 we may be able to see some 90 degree readings. 

If it does, it'll be the usual hot spots, LGA & EWR, around NYC metro.

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

3 of the last 4 years featured a ton of 90 degree days...many of them 95 ir above. We can easily get 90s...youve been downplaying heat for awhile now as i now am in the midst of my 2nd longest heatwave of the season

Stats show that years without double digits 90s in August generally get between 0-3 90 days in September, most in the 1st half. 

If anything it seems like July was downplayed and August was overestimated. 

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3 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

Return of the -EPO this winter?

The Pacific basin SST anomaly configuration has shifted from this time last year. Will this continue through the fall? Is it enough of a shift to weaken or divert  the firehose Pacific Jet? Stay tuned....

B7C44D50-9859-411F-85A3-6DBF2292A665.png.03a319e1a22170dfc21e4cf40c856e26.png

 

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