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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

looks like a fast PAC jet based on that map.  If that happens and we get no Atlantic blocking, it's a redux of last year essentially.

If the previous Fast PAC Jet recurs, I hope the North East, Mid Atlantic zones and the continental shelf waters are on the pill. as always ....

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

looks like a fast PAC jet based on that map.  If that happens and we get no Atlantic blocking, it's a redux of last year essentially.

Well last year was supposed to be a huge winter so I'll take any LR forecast with a grain of salt. 

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2012 redux plz, at least thermally, I couldn’t care less about snow.

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33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well last year was supposed to be a huge winter so I'll take any LR forecast with a grain of salt. 

 

24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

But all of the indicators are there, we really have it figured out this year, lock it up...

Salient points 

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55 minutes ago, Cfa said:

2012 redux plz, at least thermally, I couldn’t care less about snow.

How could you possibly be interested in meteorology and be satisfied with that winter? And I’m not talking about just snow. That was the most boring period of weather i have experienced hands down 

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40 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

How could you possibly be interested in meteorology and be satisfied with that winter? And I’m not talking about just snow. That was the most boring period of weather i have experienced hands down 

Boring but nice and comfortable. It was mild throughout followed by an early (and very warm) spring. We haven’t had that in a while.

If we had a more active version of 2012, I wouldn’t mind. I just want it to be mild.

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There is growing model support for the possible development of much above normal warmth in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.

The implied probability that Anchorage will record its warmest summer on record is near 100%. At present, based on the sensitivity analysis, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.4°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also an implied 53% probability that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year.

Anchorage has had 5 previous summers with mean temperatures of 60.0° or above. Four (80%) occurred 2000 or later and 3 (60%) occurred 2010 or later. Those summers were:

1977: 60.2°
2004: 60.2°
2013: 60.1°
2015: 60.2°
2016: 60.8°

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -13.90 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.300. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer.

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. The latest guidance is in line with August's anomaly falling within that range.

However, some uncertainty has increased concerning the start of September. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. That kind of evolution was shown on the August 19 EPS weeklies.

On August 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.204 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.120.

Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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I did see many pros calling for a mild winter last year but with above normal snowfall because recently it really has only taken one major storm to put us there. Last year just turned out more wet here, but you did not have to travel very far at all to get above normal snowfall. Looking at the available indicators now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very similar winter, but maybe a touch milder.

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Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There really isn’t a way to predict the winter. It’s just matter of guessing and going with your gut. I have a feeling we’re going to get bombarded with snow and feet of it. I just want a 36 hour blizzard that drops 40 inches in the city itself and I’ll be happy on a Friday night into Sunday morning

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