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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Well if it doesn't we will be tracking heavy rainstorms with 40 degree temps.

Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. 

 Will the raging Pacific jet relax?

Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter?

What will happen with ENSO?

Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter?

How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice  impact the fall and winter circulation?

How will the various record breaking SST patches evolve and impact the fall and winter pattern?

BB1D2D89-05AC-41D3-A973-2EC196793860.png.bd13422a584b12932fd9002cb54b19f1.png

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. 

 Will the raging Pacific jet relax?

Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter?

What will happen with ENSO?

Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter?

How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice  impact the fall and winter circulation?

How will the various record breaking SST blobs evolve and impact the fall and winter Patrern?

As always, many questions to be answered, it should make for some good conversation over the next few months.

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19 minutes ago, doncat said:

Big bust on the rainfall forecasts also....for a pretty large area, not just the usual convective highs and lows.

Agreed, this ones a bust. I just broke out the hoses and started watering in case tonight doesn’t deliver. I would take .25” at this point

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1 hour ago, Snowshack said:

The last two have been snowfall duds

I should’ve said late winter / early spring.

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It’s amazing that an event can be so incredibly poorly forecast. If this were a winter storm this thread would be 50 pages of weenie suicides 
You should have seen may 20th when I was chasing in Oklahoma. It was a high risk day by the spc. We saw a tornado but the high risk did not come close to verifying.
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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s amazing that an event can be so incredibly poorly forecast. If this were a winter storm this thread would be 50 pages of weenie suicides 

With the rain amounts that were  being forecasted( general 1-2" with several more in spots) I really only see  a small area along the southern NJ coast where   a few spots broke 1".

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18 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

We may actually have more storms tomorrow morning than we did today.

That would be great. I was really banking on this rain event. When your responsible for the horticulture of a college it’s definitely a stressor for myself and the plants. I had to frantically water all the planters and did not have time for the terraces. Just an unbelievably bad forecast. I thought worst case was .5” and ended up getting. .03”. 

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Could see Sunday being sneaky hot with the Euro forecasting 850's near 19-21C, could see some over performing heat in an otherwise  week and half of under performing heat.  Beyond there looks warm as the western Atlantic Ridge builds in but continued wet especially with a weakness under the ridge towards the Mississippi valley and any tropical formation......

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Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or about 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.1[75.9].         Should be +1.3[75.4] by the 22nd.

75 4* here at 6am.

Above Normal, but boring pattern.      Remember clouds, rain, and surface winds could prevent the potential +3 to +7 period from fully happening:

2019081400_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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15 hours ago, Snowshack said:

The last two have been snowfall duds

The ice storms last winter in Feb and March were significant. More of an impact than snow would have been that's for sure.

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8 hours ago, psv88 said:

0.06 at FRG, incredible short term bust, wow!

 

0.02 at LGA, 0.07 at the park, 0.07 at JFK, looks like a goose egg at EWR lol...wow...

A stunningly huge bust. This shows how far we still have to go with forecasting. The equivalent of 12-18” of snow and getting a dusting.

And another squeeze play today with rains to our north and south 

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33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A stunningly huge bust. This shows how far we still have to go with forecasting. The equivalent of 12-18” of snow and getting a dusting.

And another squeeze play today with rains to our north and south 

Depends on the model. The Euro shifted the heaviest rains further to our south after The Sunday runs. It had very little for us by the Monday evening run. The upgraded GFS really struggled especially from 4-5 days out. It had the low cutting through upstate New York. Euro was always further south closer to reality. 

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42 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A stunningly huge bust. This shows how far we still have to go with forecasting. The equivalent of 12-18” of snow and getting a dusting.

And another squeeze play today with rains to our north and south 

Yeah I would not call it a bust to be honest. If the models DID NOT correct themselves leading up to yesterday then it would be a bust in my opinion. As others said the euro picked up on this. The NAM and the HRRR also picked up on it monday night as well. By yesterday morning the writing was on the wall before the event even started. The models are only tools.

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11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Could see Sunday being sneaky hot with the Euro forecasting 850's near 19-21C, could see some over performing heat in an otherwise  week and half of under performing heat.  Beyond there looks warm as the western Atlantic Ridge builds in but continued wet especially with a weakness under the ridge towards the Mississippi valley and any tropical formation......

 

00z ECMWF now indicates a fairly substantial heat wave, with 90s for most Sunday-Friday of next week. WAR rebuilds with geopotential heights of 591-94dm. 

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. 

 Will the raging Pacific jet relax?

Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter?

What will happen with ENSO?

Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter?

How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice  impact the fall and winter circulation?

How will the various record breaking SST patches evolve and impact the fall and winter pattern?

BB1D2D89-05AC-41D3-A973-2EC196793860.png.bd13422a584b12932fd9002cb54b19f1.png

I do think all that warm water around Greenland will allow for more blocking than we've seen. 

Looks like a +PDO as well. Pacific firehouse could still be a problem though strong blocking periods could offset that somewhat.

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35 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Yeah I would not call it a bust to be honest. If the models DID NOT correct themselves leading up to yesterday then it would be a bust in my opinion. As others said the euro picked up on this. The NAM and the HRRR also picked up on it monday night as well. By yesterday morning the writing was on the wall before the event even started. The models are only tools.

Regardless of what models showed, every pro forecast was way off 

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46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I do think all that warm water around Greenland will allow for more blocking than we've seen. 

Looks like a +PDO as well. Pacific firehouse could still be a problem though strong blocking periods could offset that somewhat.

 

The water near / immediately south of Greenland is only about 10-13 degrees Celsius, so it's neither objectively warm, nor is it sufficiently warm to possess the available energy to act as a forcing agent in and of itself. It's possible that it can act as a feedback agent, but if other atmospheric drivers supersede, they will mediate circulation structure unpropitious for blocking. The notion that water of a rather diminutive temperature can act as a controlling modulator of the pattern is tenuous in my view. Again, it's a factor, but on the list of what I would examine, tertiary. Edit: also note that the warmer than normal water south of Greenland was almost entirely forced by the z500 pattern the past three months, via higher geopotential heights.

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

00z ECMWF now indicates a fairly substantial heat wave, with 90s for most Sunday-Friday of next week. WAR rebuilds with geopotential heights of 591-94dm. 

that is an impressive ridge bridge over us

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