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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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I am curious to see what the SPC will do in the new day 1 outlook in a couple of hours. I think they will hold serve.

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I am curious to see what the SPC will do in the new day 1 outlook in a couple of hours. I think they will hold serve.
I think they tighten up the northern extent of the marginal and slight
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1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said:
3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:
I am curious to see what the SPC will do in the new day 1 outlook in a couple of hours. I think they will hold serve.

I think they tighten up the northern extent of the marginal and slight

Well if tomorrow fizzles out I think it will be the first time in a while where an event become weaker as we moved closer, lets hope we don't start that trend for the fall and winter.

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2 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:
2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:
I am curious to see what the SPC will do in the new day 1 outlook in a couple of hours. I think they will hold serve.

I think they tighten up the northern extent of the marginal and slight

Looks like we were both wrong.

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I am actually a bit surprised Mt.Holly is keeping the Flash Flood Watch in effect although they have reduced the localized higher amounts from 5" down to 3".

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7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

tomorrow's threat looks dead to me. lots of debris and the low has been trending weaker and weaker

yeah this went down the drain quickly. 

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Just as a side note. Even though the potential for severe weather/heavy rain has diminished the NWS does mention there is still considerable uncertainty on how things will evolve today. Just something to keep in mind.

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Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or about 2.5degs. AN.

Month to date is +0.0[76.0].     Should be +1.0[76.4] by the 21st.

75.0* here at 6am.  77.5* by Noon 

Not much room for temperatures to vary  over the next 15 days overall.      I would say 82-89 on the highs, with good sunshine and favorable winds at the surface:

2019081300_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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Not that big a surprise the low track shifted south with the strongest -NAO of the summer. But we still have to watch for heavy rains north of the low like we are seeing now.

Current radar

F35AF4CD-4067-46F7-B767-D53A6F9E1B6C.thumb.png.8830d24e61227cb7c9a4a5fb8ebc942d.png

 

New run

62653115-9DBD-4772-91BD-93D05746332A.thumb.png.a2e03f6d3058d785592e0d1b38cbaa9d.png

Old run

CA449DF6-C644-4BB4-AAE5-727664DB150E.thumb.png.b652fcb983d69ee64b97deb312307383.png

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Talk about suppressed today-all that rain that was supposed to come through here on models yesterday looks like it’s headed for lower VA. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

Wow. Pretty big bust. Good thing I water the lawn all weekend. 

I’m happy for the bust. Still have my dirt pit for a backyard and I don’t want mud flows. Waiting on sprinkler guy and then sod to go down.  Once OKX put their tweet out showing 2” qpf for area, you knew the models would back off.  Never fails with them. 

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wow. Pretty big bust. Good thing I water the lawn all weekend. 

maybe try planting some native grasses so you don't waste so much water.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record breaking 590 dm ridge over Bering Sea will pump the WAR by the weekend.

 

3BF1D5AA-69DF-44AA-9DC8-9A945105B681.thumb.png.90d85e9321611e58cea1a87041d2b27b.png

CBDDEE77-9EBC-4080-837A-86017D9974C9.thumb.png.73d0ebe3ea3169d6b738dc66d965b793.png

Looks like great beach weather without the torridness and peak sun of July. 

Some low 90s likely.

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5 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:
11 hours ago, Rtd208 said:
Looks like we were both wrong.

What do you mean? They did cut back on the northern extent of the slight and marginal. The writing was on the wall yesterday

To me "tighten up" would have been more of a slight reduction on the northern extent between the slight and marginal. This was a substantial cut back of the marginal, slight and enhanced risk areas. But I see what you meant, we are just seeing "tighten up" a little differently.

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3 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

Thunderstorms and flash flooding aren't out of the question today for our area. Wait until the event is over before calling a bust.

 

I doubt that even happens at this point but still possible. I am surprised that Mt.Holly held onto the Flash Flood Watch for some of their counties including mine but the watch area was reduced from yesterday. I think the watch will be canceled when the afternoon update comes out IMO.

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I doubt that even happens at this point but still possible. I am surprised that Mt.Holly held onto the Flash Flood Watch for some of their counties including mine but the watch area was reduced from yesterday. I think the watch will be canceled when the afternoon update comes out IMO.
Agreed. It should be canceled at this point. The models handled this setup poorly. Unfortunately it happens from time to time.

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2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:
43 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:
I doubt that even happens at this point but still possible. I am surprised that Mt.Holly held onto the Flash Flood Watch for some of their counties including mine but the watch area was reduced from yesterday. I think the watch will be canceled when the afternoon update comes out IMO.

Agreed. It should be canceled at this point. The models handled this setup poorly. Unfortunately it happens from time to time.

And there it is, Flash Flood Watch canceled.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like great beach weather without the torridness and peak sun of July. 

Some low 90s likely.

Same old story. Raging Pacific jet pumps the WAR. Looks like another record breaking jet streak coming up. Hopefully, we can see some relaxation of this regime by next winter. 

2CB38E6A-ECDF-4704-AA40-8B900CF43731.thumb.png.d3dd7e43ca4da9d319b6751fea56a255.png

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same old story. Raging Pacific jet pumps the WAR. Looks like another record breaking jet streak coming up. Hopefully, we can see some relaxation of this regime by next winter. 

2CB38E6A-ECDF-4704-AA40-8B900CF43731.thumb.png.d3dd7e43ca4da9d319b6751fea56a255.png

Well if it doesn't we will be tracking heavy rainstorms with 40 degree temps.

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