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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Flash flood and severe potential along the track of the low. Probably need several more model runs to pin down the exact track.

Exactly, there are a lot of mesoscale details to sort out, including a yet-to-develop vort over Colorado this evening that is forecast to survive into our area Tuesday PM. 

We were barely able to crack 2" on PWATs last Wednesday and most guidance has them upwards of 2.3-2.5" Tuesday; the low-level jet will be stronger w/ this system as well. 

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80.6F yesterday, 55.6F this morning; only 80.3F today, and down to 61.7F now. Beautiful weather.

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Next 8 days averaging 76.5degs., or 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  0.0[76.0].      Should be +0.6[76.2] by the 20th.

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4 minutes ago, doncat said:

With the recent  cool mornings my station now has a -1.0° departure for the month.

Departures should get an eventual boost as the WAR makes a return next week. 

B0A9AEFC-6C3C-4BBA-A952-5F906FC9890B.thumb.png.6747ddc9228d43004b92ea74d6856bce.png

7A5E2629-1D4F-476F-A8A6-BFE6D40B612C.thumb.png.6031f3e974dd1fc08dd4617156753b74.png

 

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Quite the impressive setup tomorrow from PA into NJ. As always with Northeast severe potential there are a ton of caveats and differences within the models. However, forecast soundings are extremely impressive with the NAM indicating a pretty impressive overlay of shear and instability. The result in rather long and curved hodographs. The GFS isn't as impressive with regards to instability but given the surge of theta-e it wouldn't take much. I suspect we'll see a few TOR's tomorrow across PA and NJ and I really wouldn't rule out the potential for a strong tornado. 

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10 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I was ruminating on a couple of points which warrant some attention, in my view, as we progress closer to the cold season. It is certainly not clandestine that Pacific oceanic heat content has been highly anomalous / astronomical of the recent 12 month period. The effects of this are pleiotropic. The climatic background state, partially mediating the off-equator sea surface temperature anomaly increase, disrupts the typical hadley cell circulation. Latent heat release from convective processes mediate upper ridges adjacent, and poleward of which, draw troughs southward / intensify the jet. As SST's warm to convective sufficiency more poleward [circa 28C], the more typical pole-equator circulation is disturbed, hadley cells may enlarge or shift poleward, consequently increasing the thermal gradient farther north, in turn intensifying the mid-latitude jet. A veridical proxy of this is the previous several month -OLR depiction in the sub-tropics.  This comports with the stronger than normal Pacific mid-latitude jet.  This is a factor underestimated and underplayed. Typical Hadley Cell disruption in concert with potential putative non-linear amplification from the very low Arctic sea ice this warm season may cause novel impacts, which heretofore have not been observed [frequently, if not much at all]. This is merely food for thought as we descend toward the cold season.

 

image.png

 

 

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Excellent post! Incredibly informative and educational. One thing I am trying to do is understand Hadley Cell Circulation much better and how virtually what you described impacts Hadley Cell Circulation. 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not likely but I hope the heaviest rain can hold off until after 10 tomorrow night

Not likely is right. Rain looks as if it could start around noon time, with the heaviest during the afternoon to early evening. The event will probably be over by 10pm.

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so far Central Park's vegetation obs sight has no 90 degree temps in August...that probably wont last by months end...The warmest consecutive 30 days is 79.6 so far...that will probably be the warmest for the year...

years...….30 day average...

1930's...……...78.3

1940's...……...77.7

1950's...……...78.0

1960's...……...77.0

1970's...……...77.8

1980's...……...78.7

1990's...……...78.6

2000's...……...77.0

2010's...……...79.7

1930-2019.....78.1

2019...………..79.6

warmest

1955...………..81.6

1966...….…….81.0

1977...….…….80.2

1980...….…….82.5

1988...………..81.1

1993...………..81.2

1995...………..81.1

1999...………..81.9

2005...………..81.5

2010...………..81.8

2011...………..81.0

coolest

2000...………..72.7

1992...………..74.4

2004...………..74.8

1996...………..74.9

1960...………..75.0

 

 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Quite the impressive setup tomorrow from PA into NJ. As always with Northeast severe potential there are a ton of caveats and differences within the models. However, forecast soundings are extremely impressive with the NAM indicating a pretty impressive overlay of shear and instability. The result in rather long and curved hodographs. The GFS isn't as impressive with regards to instability but given the surge of theta-e it wouldn't take much. I suspect we'll see a few TOR's tomorrow across PA and NJ and I really wouldn't rule out the potential for a strong tornado. 

Wiz! I didnt know you got the red tag!? Nice job!

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4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Wiz! I didnt know you got the red tag!? Nice job!

Thank you!

I finished school in December! (Already almost a year :o )

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9 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

Certainly not something you see often in the Northeast.
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 15% - Slight

I think we'll be too far north for this. Southern PA/S NJ could do very well again. 

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Flash Flood Watch issued here from tomorrow afternoon thru tomorrow evening for 1-2" of rain with localized amounts up to 5" possible. 

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It's been a surprisingly pleasant month so far. Looks like the WAR is making a comeback this weekend but for now the models are keeping the highest departures to the north.

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4 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Wiz! I didnt know you got the red tag!? Nice job!

 

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Thank you!

I finished school in December! (Already almost a year :o )

A met and a ND fan :thumbsup:

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85 after a high of 86. Felt a little more like summer today but still near perfect imo.

Some highs in SE NYS.

20190812_175255.thumb.jpg.86bb770220fee4a88030655d9d98946d.jpg

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8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Excellent post! Incredibly informative and educational. One thing I am trying to do is understand Hadley Cell Circulation much better and how virtually what you described impacts Hadley Cell Circulation. 

 

Thank you, @weatherwiz for those kind words.

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tomorrow's threat looks dead to me. lots of debris and the low has been trending weaker and weaker

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tomorrow's threat looks dead to me. lots of debris and the low has been trending weaker and weaker
I'm likely heading to SEPA for the chance of tornadoes. Might be a bit further south but it's definitely on the table IMO

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8/12:

ACY: 90
LGA: 89
EWR: 88
PHL: 88
TEB: 87
BLM: 87
New Bnswk: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 85
NYC: 85
TTN: 85

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34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

tomorrow's threat looks dead to me. lots of debris and the low has been trending weaker and weaker

Are you talking about just the severe threat or the heavy rain threat as well??

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