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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Don’t know if anyone is awake on the immediate south shore, but look east. What a light show. Tiny cell blowing up out over the ocean. Marine warning says it’s 50 Miles south of Nantucket. Pretty cool and only something you see this time of year. 

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

61° this am...coolest in awhile.

..KFOK @ 55*..i'm @ 58*.

looking forward to some nice beach days this w/e..can't believe

labor day w/e is in 3 weeks..

 

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Next 8 days averaging 75degs., or just NORMAL. 

Month to date is +0.7.      Should be about +0.3 for the month by the 18th.

68.9* here at 6am.      77.0* by 11am.     78.4* by Noon.

Not much evidence showing here for a big heatwave:

2019081000_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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59.7 was the low here, coolest since June 22nd (58.6). And it’s already 15 degrees warmer at 75 rn.

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14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

59.8 this morning

Islip finally dipped to 61 degrees. So they tied the record for minimum temperatures remaining at or above 63 degrees.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 63 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 46 2019-08-09
- 46 1988-08-18
2 42 1994-08-04
3 33 1980-08-16
4 32 2013-07-24
- 32 2006-08-08
5 31 1967-08-07

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6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Tuesday looks like our next chance for severe weather. Does not look like a bad setup either. 

agreed. another surface low taking ~direct aim at us. this one will have much better shear (50KT mid-level jet) and moisture than last week.

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It only took the biggest -NAO drop of the summer for NYC to finally drop under 67 for the first time since July 1st. The 39 day streak was the 4th longest.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 67 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 46 2005-08-24
2 44 1988-08-18
3 42 2015-08-27
4 39 2019-08-09

B6A76DE2-4E9B-432D-BD5F-DF09F03217C5.thumb.gif.602d2776b443ae0ec0e508eefe6cf50b.gif

 

 

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4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 75degs., or just NORMAL. 

Month to date is +0.7.      Should be about +0.3 for the month by the 18th.

68.9* here at 6am.

 

And therefrom, the temperature departure will continue to increase in the final 10 days of the month as geopotential heights reshuffle in concordance with EPO domain vicissitudes, and the walker circulation reinvigorates in the CPAC. August 18th-31st should be quite warm, pushing the monthly departures to +1 to +2 for most.

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35 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

And therefrom, the temperature departure will continue to increase in the final 10 days of the month as geopotential heights reshuffle in concordance with EPO domain vicissitudes, and the walker circulation reinvigorates in the CPAC. August 18th-31st should be quite warm, pushing the monthly departures to +1 to +2 for most.

Continuing wet?

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Next 8 days averaging 74degs., or 1 deg. BN.

68.7* here at 6am.    68.1* at 6:30am.   68.0* at 7am.  68.9* at 8am.

I think today will have less wind and more sun compared to yesterday's continuous dust devils/clouds over the beach here.

Our upcoming hot weather looks confined to the 18th-23rd. now, and may be quickly erased.     Weak LP's keep trying to go around the HP rim along the EC too, so far innocently.

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Low of 58 at Islip ends the 8th longest run of 60 and above minimum temperatures.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 63 1967-08-31
2 62 2015-08-28
3 61 2003-08-23
4 58 2005-09-05
5 55 2006-08-11
- 55 1994-08-05
6 52 2014-08-14
7 50 2016-08-22
8 48 2019-08-10
- 48 2008-08-08
9 46 1988-08-18
10 45 2018-08-23
- 45 2013-08-04
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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Low of 58 at Islip ends the 8th longest run of 60 and above minimum temperatures.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 63 1967-08-31
2 62 2015-08-28
3 61 2003-08-23
4 58 2005-09-05
5 55 2006-08-11
- 55 1994-08-05
6 52 2014-08-14
7 50 2016-08-22
8 48 2019-08-10
- 48 2008-08-08
9 46 1988-08-18
10 45 2018-08-23
- 45 2013-08-04

should be the ninth longest...

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OKX AFD describes Tuesday's potential nicely:

Quote
NWP guidance has come into enough agreement on the idea of a low
pressure system riding atop upper ridging over the mid section
of the nation, then passing over or close to the area and 
bringing rain Tue into Tue night, but the details remain
uncertain. GEFS/EPS ensemble means show greater probabilities 
of heaviest rainfall passing just south, but with the greatest
spread centered right over the area, as some some individual 
ensemble members bring the heaviest rainfall right over or just
north of the area. This latter idea includes the 00Z and 06Z
NAM. Stony Brook ensemble sensitivity analysis for the ECMWF
shows the greatest uncertainty tied to the amplitude of a 
northern stream cutoff low moving out ahead across Quebec. A 
weaker northern stream cutoff would lead toward greater
likelihood of the low track and axis of heaviest rain passing 
to the north, a stronger nrn stream toward greater likelihood of
suppression to the south. There is also some uncertainty on low
intensity, as a stronger low would more likely have stronger 
associated wind fields, more significant moisture transport, 
and severe wx potential right along the low track in/near the 
warm sector. The 00Z and 06Z 12-km NAM have both produced 
stripes of very heavy rainfall along/just north of its fcst low
track which could be tied partly to convective feedback, but
even the global models suggest good potential of max rainfall
amts of 2-3 inches. From a climatological standpoint, lows of
this nature in August also have a history of producing very 
heavy rainfall, so given this plus the modeled potential for 
very heavy rain, flash flooding, and/or severe weather to occur 
somewhere in our area, have mentioned in the HWO.

SPC has us in the marginal risk (slight just to the SW) for severe - mentioning a risk for supercells somewhere nearby. The WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding. 

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30 minutes ago, uncle W said:

should be the ninth longest...

48 days is the 8th longest streak. It’s a dense rank by number of days like the NWS OKX uses.

The difference between the RANK and DENSE_RANK functions is in how values are assigned to rows following a tie. In case of tie of two records for the first position, the third record that follows to the tie in order will be considered third position if you use RANK, while the third record that follows the tie is considered second position if you choose DENSE_RANK.

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All modes of severe weather are possible Tuesday including tornadoes. I think the Philly area will be the center point and the slight risk may shift north. Wouldnt be surprised to see an enhanced risk Tuesday either if the forecast models hold its current course.

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

OKX AFD describes Tuesday's potential nicely:

SPC has us in the marginal risk (slight just to the SW) for severe - mentioning a risk for supercells somewhere nearby. The WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding. 

 

45 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

All modes of severe weather are possible Tuesday including tornadoes. I think the Philly area will be the center point and the slight risk may shift north. Wouldnt be surprised to see an enhanced risk Tuesday either if the forecast models hold its current course.

Flash flood and severe potential along the track of the low. Probably need several more model  runs to pin down the exact track.

BED15F8D-11A0-4F40-ADD1-EFF98D5CB687.thumb.gif.fcf4565b9375989462fe64fd3a1a453c.gif

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

48 days is the 8th longest streak. It’s a dense rank by number of days like the NWS OKX uses.

The difference between the RANK and DENSE_RANK functions is in how values are assigned to rows following a tie. In case of tie of two records for the first position, the third record that follows to the tie in order will be considered third position if you use RANK, while the third record that follows the tie is considered second position if you choose DENSE_RANK.

maybe I'm dense...there are eight years ahead of 2019...I never thought there was such a thing as dense ranking...

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