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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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51 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

have to watch winds on the eastern end of the island. vis sat suggests to me the inverted trof will be located somewhere in suffolk later this afternoon into the evening. if winds shift SE then some localized severe is possible, including brief spin-ups. 

these are legit convective showers moving in. tops estimated 35-38000' on the heaviest cells. inch/hour+ rates seem likely for brief periods across all of LI.

Flood advisory here now and heavy rain

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As Tropical Depression Erin passes offshore, additional showers are likely in parts of New York and New Jersey. Steadier rain is likely across Long Island and parts of New England.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week.

Select daily records included: Bergen, Norway: 79°; Billund Lufthavn, Denmark: 84°; Bronnoysund, Norway: 81°; Diepholz, Germany: 91°; Floro, Norway: 79°; Groningen, Netherlands: 88°; Haugesund, Norway: 79° (old record: 68°); Kiruna, Sweden: 75°; Kramfors Flygplats, Sweden: 79°; Kristiansund, Norway: 82°; Meppen, Germany: 90°; Mo I Rana, Norway: 82°; Namsos Lufthavn, Norway: 84° (old record: 72°); Nordholz, Germany: 90°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 82°; Odense, Denmark: 86°; Ostersund Froson, Sweden: 75°; Sandessjoen, Norway: 84° (new August record); Skrydstrup, Denmark: 86°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 82°; Vidsel, Sweden: 79°; and, Wittmundhaven, Germany: 82°..

The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.

In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 96%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -8.19 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.174. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half.

September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°.

On August 27, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.174 (RMM). The August 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.256.

Finally, New York City has an implied 60% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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Next 8 days averaging 75degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +0.2[75.6].         August should end near  +0.4[75.6].

All 8 days are averaging 75degs. also, or about 4degs. AN.

67.6* here at 6am.

All models indicate we should watch out here near Sept. 6 for Dorian's remnants.

Enjoy Labor Day at Daytona Beach this year.    Cheap Rates.     50mph winds, 80mph gusts and 12" of rain included Free!

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hope it's heated.   Cant be more than 68-70 degrees at this point.

Brian my heater crapped out so I need to get a new one next year , the Solar cover has been on it for a week and it was working pretty well , I will let you guys know the Temp later. Today temp hits 80 and tomorrow hits 85 will help my cause----------soon enough its over for sure and the winter cover will go on

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Nice day on beach in Coney Island except for occasional Dust Devils.    Easily low 80's at some point.    Most bays have no lifeguards already as the foreign students who spent the summer here and locals may have returned to school elsewhere by now.

The models have Dorian dilly-dally for nearly 10 days along whole EC before getting here----now as late as the 10th-11th, before I was seeing the 6th-8th.       And it does this w/o making one of those big diameter, waste some time loops, and then doubling back to the coast.   A slow-motion Hurricane Donna.     Doubt if this will occur-----but by watching this one atmospheric feature each day, one can see how bad modeling still is at the +5 day range.

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