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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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I doubt euro is right here most models have us maybe one or two days of 90’s no full throttle heatwave. I actually don’t even think we get more than 1 day of 90’s and even if we do there’s a bad cold front after the WAR relaxes. Regardless you got another week of summer than we start cooling down. We might get another surge of heat around mid September and that’s it!

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Depends on the model. The Euro shifted the heaviest rains further to our south after The Sunday runs. It had very little for us by the Monday evening run. The upgraded GFS really struggled especially from 4-5 days out. It had the low cutting through upstate New York. Euro was always further south closer to reality. 

Mesoscale details are always fickle.  I think this was a good lesson for non-mets not to trust a small-scale feature's exact placement more than 12 hours ahead of time. Convective feedback played havoc w/ the MCV/low placement. That and the widespread clouds are what kept things in check around here and I don't think it was totally obvious until early Tuesday AM.

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I doubt euro is right here most models have us maybe one or two days of 90’s no full throttle heatwave. I actually don’t even think we get more than 1 day of 90’s and even if we do there’s a bad cold front after the WAR relaxes. Regardless you got another week of summer than we start cooling down. We might get another surge of heat around mid September and that’s it!

I think a 3-5 day heatwave looks likely starting Sunday. HI will likely approach near advisory levels. 

We certainly won't come close to July's heat but as with most years as of late we'll probably see 90s into September too.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The last 2 days have been miserable in Wildwood and now back home.

 

Power just flickered here at my house 

That sucks.  After awhile I've found it's hit or miss down there.  Gotta stay at least 4-5 days to ensure you get some good weather at least.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing with the theme of heat and humidity making a return from later in the weekend into early next week. Euro and GFS have 95 degree potential for the usual warm spots by Monday. Dewpoints are also forecast to be in the 75 degree or higher range. So another opportunity for the heat index to reach 100+. The one wild card for Tuesday and Wednesday will be a potential subtropical-type weak low. The Euro is furthest west with the track from near the SE Coast through our area later on Tuesday. Most other models continue the heat and sunshine Tuesday and are drier. So it will be interesting to see if the weak and potentially moisture packed feature verifies. If not, then Tuesday may be a hot and humid carbon copy of Monday.

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Not looking forward to that, but I will be in Va beach ( family likes the place; not me ) where I'm sure it will be hotter.

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