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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Flash flood and severe potential along the track of the low. Probably need several more model runs to pin down the exact track.

Exactly, there are a lot of mesoscale details to sort out, including a yet-to-develop vort over Colorado this evening that is forecast to survive into our area Tuesday PM. 

We were barely able to crack 2" on PWATs last Wednesday and most guidance has them upwards of 2.3-2.5" Tuesday; the low-level jet will be stronger w/ this system as well. 

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Quite the impressive setup tomorrow from PA into NJ. As always with Northeast severe potential there are a ton of caveats and differences within the models. However, forecast soundings are extremely impressive with the NAM indicating a pretty impressive overlay of shear and instability. The result in rather long and curved hodographs. The GFS isn't as impressive with regards to instability but given the surge of theta-e it wouldn't take much. I suspect we'll see a few TOR's tomorrow across PA and NJ and I really wouldn't rule out the potential for a strong tornado. 

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10 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I was ruminating on a couple of points which warrant some attention, in my view, as we progress closer to the cold season. It is certainly not clandestine that Pacific oceanic heat content has been highly anomalous / astronomical of the recent 12 month period. The effects of this are pleiotropic. The climatic background state, partially mediating the off-equator sea surface temperature anomaly increase, disrupts the typical hadley cell circulation. Latent heat release from convective processes mediate upper ridges adjacent, and poleward of which, draw troughs southward / intensify the jet. As SST's warm to convective sufficiency more poleward [circa 28C], the more typical pole-equator circulation is disturbed, hadley cells may enlarge or shift poleward, consequently increasing the thermal gradient farther north, in turn intensifying the mid-latitude jet. A veridical proxy of this is the previous several month -OLR depiction in the sub-tropics.  This comports with the stronger than normal Pacific mid-latitude jet.  This is a factor underestimated and underplayed. Typical Hadley Cell disruption in concert with potential putative non-linear amplification from the very low Arctic sea ice this warm season may cause novel impacts, which heretofore have not been observed [frequently, if not much at all]. This is merely food for thought as we descend toward the cold season.

 

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Excellent post! Incredibly informative and educational. One thing I am trying to do is understand Hadley Cell Circulation much better and how virtually what you described impacts Hadley Cell Circulation. 

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so far Central Park's vegetation obs sight has no 90 degree temps in August...that probably wont last by months end...The warmest consecutive 30 days is 79.6 so far...that will probably be the warmest for the year...

years...….30 day average...

1930's...……...78.3

1940's...……...77.7

1950's...……...78.0

1960's...……...77.0

1970's...……...77.8

1980's...……...78.7

1990's...……...78.6

2000's...……...77.0

2010's...……...79.7

1930-2019.....78.1

2019...………..79.6

warmest

1955...………..81.6

1966...….…….81.0

1977...….…….80.2

1980...….…….82.5

1988...………..81.1

1993...………..81.2

1995...………..81.1

1999...………..81.9

2005...………..81.5

2010...………..81.8

2011...………..81.0

coolest

2000...………..72.7

1992...………..74.4

2004...………..74.8

1996...………..74.9

1960...………..75.0

 

 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Quite the impressive setup tomorrow from PA into NJ. As always with Northeast severe potential there are a ton of caveats and differences within the models. However, forecast soundings are extremely impressive with the NAM indicating a pretty impressive overlay of shear and instability. The result in rather long and curved hodographs. The GFS isn't as impressive with regards to instability but given the surge of theta-e it wouldn't take much. I suspect we'll see a few TOR's tomorrow across PA and NJ and I really wouldn't rule out the potential for a strong tornado. 

Wiz! I didnt know you got the red tag!? Nice job!

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