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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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When we enter the new climo period it's going to be interesting to see how much the min's climb.

With regards to the warming (referencing AGW here) you gotta wonder if eventually it will appear as if we're not seeing crazy warmth anymore and whether below-average periods are deceiving. What I mean by this is...when the climate numbers become adjusted everything is obviously going to tick up...so maybe right now a +4 in July may only come in as a +1...so you would think ehhh that's not bad...but in the grand scheme of the overall picture (going back to the start of records) that +1 is still quite significant.

Also, say 85 is your average high...that will eventually become below-average. 

There is just so much that is going to happen with regards to climate statistics over the next several years that misinterpretations could become rampant. 

 

I would like to hear @Typhoon Tip's thoughts on this. 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When we enter the new climo period it's going to be interesting to see how much the min's climb.

With regards to the warming (referencing AGW here) you gotta wonder if eventually it will appear as if we're not seeing crazy warmth anymore and whether below-average periods are deceiving. What I mean by this is...when the climate numbers become adjusted everything is obviously going to tick up...so maybe right now a +4 in July may only come in as a +1...so you would think ehhh that's not bad...but in the grand scheme of the overall picture (going back to the start of records) that +1 is still quite significant.

Also, say 85 is your average high...that will eventually become below-average. 

There is just so much that is going to happen with regards to climate statistics over the next several years that misinterpretations could become rampant. 

 

I would like to hear @Typhoon Tip's thoughts on this. 

Which is why I feel we are behind in adjusting. Yea we use 1981-2010, I get it. So once we move to 1991-2020, we’ll see a pretty big uptick which we technically should be using now.....but whatever, two years in moving the normals will be significant. The AHATT crowd will have a harder time forecasting +5 for every summer next decade. That is, unless the roof blows off on GW and we escalate this shit at greater frequencies. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Which is why I feel we are behind in adjusting. Yea we use 1981-2010, I get it. So once we move to 1991-2020, we’ll see a pretty big uptick which we technically should be using now.....but whatever, one year in moving the normals will be significant. The AHATT crowd will have a harder time forecasting +5 for every summer next decade. That is, unless the roof blows off on GW and we escalate this shit at greater frequencies. 

If we're still pulling off +5's in the upcoming climo period we're in big trouble I think.

Speaking of the climo period...I think this also makes re-analysis extremely difficult. For example, this page...

image.png.9311e9833da3ea1743f2b7ccd7e7afbd.png

 

You can get temperature anomalies beginning from January 1895. But the following climo periods are only available:

1950-1995

1951-2010

1961-1990

1971-2000

1895-2000

1950-2007

2007-2016

I sort of wish there were some other periods in there...especially for early on in the dataset. I mean say you wanted to look at like some month in 1904...if you compare that to the 1981-2010 climo...chances are it is going to look quite below-average. but at least with the temperature anomalies you can choose different periods.

I think it's really bad with this page...

image.png.c8adbed9cd4ae688b4d2293cc1d3eefb.png

because everything is just compared with the most recent climo period. 

 

Maybe I'm just being picky but too me it weakens the validity of the true picture. 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Most of us will be aoa through today or even tomorrow.   It’s not as hard to pop big + latter half of August as climo starts dropping.

True enough.  The 5 days 8/30-9/3/2010 averaged +12 at my place, and included Farmington's most recent 4-day heat wave.  Not seeing anything like that coming, yet.

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You can sense a nervous tone to some of the ones that were calling for an august furnace, Get a hot July and all of a sudden every month from now on suppose to be a blowtorch with continuous HHH.

I’m not the slightest bit nervous.  If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time...lol.  I’ll be in Europe after 8/23 so I won’t see how we end up....although I’ll know-phone FTW.

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Meh... I'm not overly convinced the summer is any more demonstratively verifying above normal than it already has... 

Yeah...I suppose a plausible defining difference maker would be a bigger heat wave event toward the 18th - the 24th or something... somewhere in there it seems timed right if I'm not clapping my hands on the wrong part of the model-song syncopation.  .. .

But excluding that, ... nothing's changed in the models looking at the present trends ( last 5 days worth..)  Said trend is micro cosm of the summer as a whole... 2 days of amazing heat...folllowed by 2 days of modeling that looks like mid autumn bullies in.

The models have an usually strong gradient along the 50th parallel ... for summer, that's a certainty. So every time that ribbon of westerlies sinks a little... dramatic difference.  At least based upon my 40 years of sentience in the field, both existential and as a horrible weather forecaster...  Be that as it may, we don't typically see such strong northern stream flows ribbon'ed along that latitude, with 530 dm vortex cores bowling along while running 594 to 500 dm ridging bombs from southern California to Bermuda depending on model run...  And that's been happening since April ...for all intents and purposes...  And, that is going on in the models now... 

So, based on that consistent behavior, and then matching it with the +2 to +5 verification... I figure as a better I'd put my money down that despite whatever model depiction one 'wants' to see happen, ...and any following hugely convincing statements are cobbled together to support those... we'll probably end up +2 to +5 ... 

Pick how we get there...   

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m not the slightest bit nervous.  If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time...lol.  I’ll be in Europe after 8/23 so I won’t see how we end up....although I’ll know-phone FTW.

You get a pass my friend, And we have all been wrong before, But enjoy your trip, Hopefully vacation related.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything exactly on track. Torch first week of Augdewst. 3-4 days have hit 70 or higher for dews so on track there. Mild down for a few days in middle and then furnace from 17-18 on. Month will end 2.5 to 3.5 AN as forecast. Couldn’t be working out any better . Again ... for SNE 

might take till a little after the 20th me thinks to get to furnace weather.. 

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You get a pass my friend, And we have all been wrong before, But enjoy your trip, Hopefully vacation related.

Thanks Jeff!  Definitely vacation.  Dropping our daughter off in London and after 5 days there we’re heading to Paris.  Should be fun.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yesterday’s high of 81F interrupted the 6-day below normal stretch.  

What an August so far, -2.2.  

5 of 7 days with a minimum in the 40s so far.  

And a bunch more below normal days coming up.  Highs in mid-60s on Saturday per BTV.

Just continuous high fives from folks outside getting after it instead of being hunkered down in apts or houses with windows closed and A/C running 24/7 like mid july on was.

Today: Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
 

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