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Dr. Dews

August 2019 Discussion

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Heh...   If that Alaskan sector/western Canadian monster -EPO tuck evolves that way ... that run is HUGELY too low with the heights over southern Canada - typical bias in the Extended..

Whether the nearer term temperature appeal verifies... it's been advertized for days... so hopefully we get a few day out of it

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...   If that Alaskan sector/western Canadian monster -EPO tuck evolves that way ... that run is HUGELY too low with the heights over southern Canada - typical bias in the Extended..

Whether the nearer term temperature appeal verifies... it's been advertized for days... so hopefully we get a few day out of it

Asout 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z euro kind of extends the COC for most of next week. That would be pretty sweet. 

Endless coc

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Asout 

We know you were monitoring that Alaskan sector/western Canadian monster -EPO tuck evolution, just like Tippy.... you just didn’t know how to articulate it right?

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A quick look at the EC, gfs, ensemble etc. reveals a fairly active pattern for mid-Augughst with perhaps a w or NW flow severe set up thrown in there. It's prime time, let's get it

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We know you were monitoring that Alaskan sector/western Canadian monster -EPO tuck evolution, just like Tippy.... you just didn’t know how to articulate it right?
Check my previous posts

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z euro kind of extends the COC for most of next week. That would be pretty sweet. 

COC extension, some need it.

 

49F50E2D-E6FA-4782-97DB-41F7E913E9D2.png

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7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

If we see anything in the Atlantic (outside of the Caribbean of course) it won't be until very late in the season.

Lately inactive hurricane seasons were big snow producers for the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic (2009, 2013, 2014) and big hurricane seasons like 2011/2012/2018 were the opposite.

Is there any correlation or just random coincidences. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Week+ days BN incoming for you

Yup, Me likey, Low 50's and tickle 40's on the overnights.

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Oh but some think its going to be the mother of all mothers after Julfry.
We told them, it's all we can do. Educate those that needed most.

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10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Missed my chance for waterspout. Can't wait to get the drone out for some chasing. 

 

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Get after it SNEers.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KORH   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   8/08/2019  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15 CLIMO
 X/N  82| 63  80| 58  73| 53  74| 60  78| 57  75| 59  72| 59  74 59 78
 TMP  74| 67  70| 62  64| 59  67| 65  69| 62  68| 63  65| 63  67      
 DPT  64| 58  54| 53  50| 49  54| 56  54| 52  57| 58  61| 59  59      
 CLD  PC| PC  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  PC| CL  CL| OV  OV| PC  PC      
 WND  12| 11  13| 12  17| 10  10| 13  15|  9   8| 12  12|  7  10      
 P12  19| 18   5|  8  13|  5   5| 10  11| 10  10| 55  52| 27  29999999
 P24    |     21|     13|      5|     11|     12|     55|     36   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  4    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |             
 T12  30| 17   6|  3   5|  2   4|  3   3|  0   4|  5  10|  5  11      
 T24    | 34    |  6    |  5    |  5    |  3    | 14    | 10          

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9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

So much for a hot august . Looks like we warm but nothing crazy.

When you consider the average high in July (ORH) is 2* warmer than the average high in August, you can easily see the need for greater departures to achieve the warmer conditions of July.

On the topic of the seasonal breaking of summer's back, the sun's now setting before 8:00 beginning today as the rate of daytime loss as really ramped up to 2:20/day.  We'll have an additional daytime loss of 59 minutes between today and the end of the month.  I suspect Ray's beginning to compile thoughts for his winter outlook......

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5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

When you consider the average high in July (ORH) is 2* warmer than the average high in August, you can easily see the need for greater departures to achieve the warmer conditions of July.

On the topic of the seasonal breaking of summer's back, the sun's now setting before 8:00 beginning today as the rate of daytime loss as really ramped up to 2:20/day.  We'll have an additional daytime loss of 59 minutes between today and the end of the month.  I suspect Ray's beginning to compile thoughts for his winter outlook......

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52448-winter-2019-2020-discussion/

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13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

So much for a hot august . Looks like we warm but nothing crazy.

So you’re just ignoring the torch on GEFS and EPS? Couple of normal days Sun-Tuesday then slowly creep back AN. Would suggest not using charts . Ryan yesterday says you need to correct their cold bias 

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On 8/6/2019 at 4:36 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Another BN day down here. After this weekend, we have a lot of ground to makeup to reach those +5 calls by a senior weenie.

Most of us will be aoa through today or even tomorrow.   It’s not as hard to pop big + latter half of August as climo starts dropping.

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24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Most of us will be aoa through today or even tomorrow.   It’s not as hard to pop big + latter half of August as climo starts dropping.

mid 70s incoming, be ready. We’ll end Aug AN for highs but not torched. +2 or thereabouts. 

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