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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Weekend looks like highs in the 60s on Saturday and low 70s on Sunday?  Cool downs still hit NNE, maybe not SNE though, ha.

Saturday...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s.

Sunday...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s.

Here:

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 80. West wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Saturday
Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 6 to 9 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 3 to 7 mph.
 
All BN.
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10 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

80's highs 60's lows is the new cool down. Welcome to GW

????

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 79. West wind 7 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West wind around 7 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 7 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 5 to 9 mph.
 
I do see an 80* rearing it's head next Tuesday though.  Is that the 80's' you were referring to?
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The discussion from our service is NNE derived.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 K1P1   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   8/07/2019  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14 CLIMO
 X/N  78| 63  80| 60  81| 52  72| 50  75| 57  76| 52  75| 53  78 54 78
 TMP  69| 65  71| 64  68| 58  64| 55  66| 61  65| 57  65| 58  68      
 DPT  69| 64  67| 60  58| 54  55| 52  62| 59  57| 54  57| 55  61      
 CLD  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| OV  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV      
 WND   2|  1   2|  4   9|  5  11|  4   5|  5  14|  4   7|  2   5      
 P12  85| 75  56| 38  17| 12  14|  8  21| 35  19| 16  18| 20  21999999
 P24    |     83|     40|     20|     21|     43|     22|     33   999
 Q12   3|  2   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      3|      0|      0|      0|      1|       |             
 T12  52| 31  40| 22   9|  2   7|  0   7| 10   4|  2   2|  2  10      
 T24    | 57    | 49    |  9    |  7    | 12    |  4    |  8          
                                                                      

 

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Euro brings the COC in 2 pieces. One shot for the weekend and another front Mon night into Tuesday. At some point it's all a dream as a trough digs into the west. Pretty good torch for us on the GEFS as we get into the d11-15. There's some pretty good sonoran plumes that make it our way.

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro brings the COC in 2 pieces. One shot for the weekend and another front Mon night into Tuesday. At some point it's all a dream as a trough digs into the west. Pretty good torch for us on the GEFS as we get into the d11-15. There's some pretty good sonoran plumes that make it our way.

Are there any hints the Atlantic  pattern becomes favorable for tracking something

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We accept a 2 coc shot. 

 

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro brings the COC in 2 pieces. One shot for the weekend and another front Mon night into Tuesday. At some point it's all a dream as a trough digs into the west. Pretty good torch for us on the GEFS as we get into the d11-15. There's some pretty good sonoran plumes that make it our way.

Just gonna leave this here

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59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro brings the COC in 2 pieces. One shot for the weekend and another front Mon night into Tuesday. At some point it's all a dream as a trough digs into the west. Pretty good torch for us on the GEFS as we get into the d11-15. There's some pretty good sonoran plumes that make it our way.

OP GFS has RUM not breaking 80 thru Day 14, then jumping to low 90s end of run.  Surely that's exactly how it will play out.   :P

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Euro brings the COC in 2 pieces. One shot for the weekend and another front Mon night into Tuesday. At some point it's all a dream as a trough digs into the west. Pretty good torch for us on the GEFS as we get into the d11-15. There's some pretty good sonoran plumes that make it our way.

mm... starting to also consider the 'put-off bamboozled' routine...

Oh, that's when it has a 340 hour heat bomb for the next month's worth of charts and then it finally verifies as 18 hours of high DP/wet 70 on Sept 10 ...  

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18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it’ll be a bit sooner than that. I think we’ll be pushing close to the September peak to get things really going, especially if the MJO/CCKW is slow to cooperate. I actually think the Caribbean is least likely to be active given the persistent shear/shear anomalies we’ve seen. I’d want to see some of that relax in September before feeling confident that area is active for tropical genesis during its usual peak in October.

SAL seems to be in complete domination and over an extensive area. Even if the degree of SAL coming off of Africa slows down over the next month there is just so much over the Atlantic I think it's going to be tough to overcome. 

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7 hours ago, dendrite said:

Euro brings the COC in 2 pieces. One shot for the weekend and another front Mon night into Tuesday. At some point it's all a dream as a trough digs into the west. Pretty good torch for us on the GEFS as we get into the d11-15. There's some pretty good sonoran plumes that make it our way.

12z euro kind of extends the COC for most of next week. That would be pretty sweet. 

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Heh...   If that Alaskan sector/western Canadian monster -EPO tuck evolves that way ... that run is HUGELY too low with the heights over southern Canada - typical bias in the Extended..

Whether the nearer term temperature appeal verifies... it's been advertized for days... so hopefully we get a few day out of it

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...   If that Alaskan sector/western Canadian monster -EPO tuck evolves that way ... that run is HUGELY too low with the heights over southern Canada - typical bias in the Extended..

Whether the nearer term temperature appeal verifies... it's been advertized for days... so hopefully we get a few day out of it

Asout 

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