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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at radar for CT. Man, some are having a rough go of it this summer.

Man, after he called for no rains in CT.

After a blistering start in late June and July, the KFS is having a 2004-Yankees-esque meltdown.

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Just now, PowderBeard said:

Always hear folks doing with snow,  why not play the "Best bands set up ~50 NW of modeling"-card for downpours? lol

Different mechanics usually. The snows from NW bands are typically from ML fronto and upper level deformation which is often northwest of the best low level forcing and that's why models often struggle with it...with warm season rains there's a lot of convective processes. Usually the low levels will matter more on that. 

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1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

Always hear folks doing with snow,  why not play the "Best bands set up ~50 NW of modeling"-card for downpours? lol

Sort of two areas of forcing. The stuff near NYC is more synoptic...think H7 and H5 factors like vorticity advection, divergence, deformation etc. Then increasing LLJ and low level frontogenesis off s coast. All the while you have good venting aloft with strengthening jet above 30,000ft. There probably will be an area stiffed, but overall many should have a decent drink. Possibly prolific amounts in a narrow area.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at radar for CT. Man, some are having a rough go of it this summer.

This same thing in winter would have him bringing your rains back west to at least “the river”... the seasonal forecasting variations are entertaining.  Rain in summer?  Only for E.MA.  Snow in winter?  Stop looking at models, it’s heavy amounts to the River and possibly back to NY state.

You forecast the weather you want. 

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those rains near JFK will produce in CT. 

We had some light yellows earlier and it was quite the downpour. Not sure if I get that batch now coming onshore down in Stamford, but I can imagine that is going to have some impressive rates with in...

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