Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

53 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Oh yeah.  Dropped our pride and joy off to her living space and now enjoying our last day in London.  Train to Paris tomorrow.  Weather has been hot and of course ac doesn’t work where we’re staying but it hasn’t slowed us down at all.  Fans and cool showers work fine.  Nice thing about London is we speak the native language.  It’s a fun city and locals know how to have fun!

That train is pretty comfortable.  We took the Eurostar to Brussels earlier this month.  Even the long check in lines at St. Pancras went smoothly.  I was hoping the Chunnel would be more interesting but it's just another tunnel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah ...I mentioned this in the tropical thread the other day ...the NAM's been flirting with a PRE set up there. But it's complicated because 1, the NAM ( at least 'use to' ) carry on with a NW-W Atlantic bias of extending cyclonic influence too far NW.  If it is doing so with this thing, it may be faux manufacturing said PRE.   Also, the TC isn't very well formulated which somewhat strains belief - a little - that it would have that much forcing capacity in the total tropopsheric synoptics through the period.  

Who knows but we've seen the NAM dry up big QPF forecasts for other reasons with regularity too -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyway ... the peregrinations of Kevin aside ... 

It's interesting that right down the NAM meso products, 32, 12 and 3 KM, they are all setting up a PRE or quasi PRE behavior over RI/E. Mass.  Incredibly narrow in the 12. 

A narrow region appears bombarded across a 6 hour window, spanning just 20 or even a 10 mile wide axis of training convection.  

There is a front limping through and it briefly links up with the general cyclonic tapestry of the TC as it lift NNE on a curving trajectory.  No James - this isn't going to hit the Cape ... 

Anyway, right on the frontalysis axis they get smoked, with exceptionally steep gradient on the western side. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mm.  I'm not ready to dismiss something like the NAM out of hand on this...

The now's in the sky are setting things up ominously ...That frontal band is suggestively tilting slightly negative (slowing)  as it creeps east over PA/NY ... Meanwhile,  plume of ongoing cold cloud tops is fisting N toward the south coast right now.

Slow evolution tho.  It's just that the whole look of the thing doesn't immediately dismiss the notion that some impressive PW air would get sucked up into said front as it limps through.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm.  I'm not ready to dismiss something like the NAM out of hand on this...

The now's in the sky are setting things up ominously ...That frontal band is suggestively tilting slightly negative (slowing)  as it creeps east over PA/NY ... Meanwhile,  plume of ongoing cold cloud tops is fisting N toward the south coast right now.

Slow evolution tho.  It's just that the whole look of the thing doesn't immediately dismiss the notion that some impressive PW air would get sucked up into said front as it limps through.  

 

Pretty cool visible today... can see the frontal boundary stuff in NY and approaching tropical moisture to the south. 

Loop it and you could see how a HFD-ORH axis could get crushed too.  I still like east but you can see the more negative tilt trying to take place.  

AEC6E1D7-37C7-4112-AF40-2528CC6D4C11.jpeg.f8a40ab4cdadb1246ff69ef4ad0f58fe.jpeg

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Pretty cool visible today... can see the frontal boundary stuff in NY and approaching tropical moisture to the south. 

Loop it and you could see how a HFD-ORH axis could get crushed too.  I still like east but you can see the more negative tilt trying to take place.  

AEC6E1D7-37C7-4112-AF40-2528CC6D4C11.jpeg.f8a40ab4cdadb1246ff69ef4ad0f58fe.jpeg

 

Yup 

Satellite lies at times though - and radar sometimes gets the same dishonest memo.   Can't count how many times in the winter I've crashed red-eyed and weary late at night after studying chart after chart showing miss, while fighting rad and sat presentations now-casting doom. Feelin' pretty damn good about the positive bust about to befall upon unsuspecting denizens, only to wake up partly sunny -

"that's impossible!"  

Only the irony here is that we are trying to disavow a model for being more impacting - kind of the opposite. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Pretty cool visible today... can see the frontal boundary stuff in NY and approaching tropical moisture to the south. 

Loop it and you could see how a HFD-ORH axis could get crushed too.  I still like east but you can see the more negative tilt trying to take place.  

AEC6E1D7-37C7-4112-AF40-2528CC6D4C11.jpeg.f8a40ab4cdadb1246ff69ef4ad0f58fe.jpeg

 

A purdy picture in any case.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...