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August 2019 Discussion


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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winni was about as warm if not warmest it’s been ever. It’s definitely been warm up north. Maybe July being not so wet has helped along with lots of sun. 

Bbbiut Freak and Slot and Dendrite day best NNE not hot summer ever . Somethings gotta give here . Interesting battle between perception and scientific proof . Fascinating 

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I think it’s just different stages.  Like I look at first real autumn stage of weather when popcorn cells are getting thrown across Upstate NY and NNE, starting as 53F light rain that turns into 42F pouring graupel in the cores.  Then the sun comes back out, then more graupel and you end up getting 6 distinct showers throughout the day from cold pool aloft as p-type progs turn from green to pink over the higher terrain.

 

Will and I have talked about this ... we've called it the "shot before the shot across the bow"  - ha...

But, even that doesn't typically come this way.

Look, we have a 582 dam contour in-ridge construct fully enveloped - as in...we are inside of it...  Yet because this high pressure is situated in an anomalous position ( and is anomalously elevating surface pressure ...stationary no less, near NS...we are getting pumped by east fetch..   It's unusual ... it may not be stopping any third world governments but it's an unusual set up.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's tied into everything !

you're kidding right - ..

see this is the problem... articulate people that seem surprised when they stumble into some inter-dependencies, both direct and probably of even more importance, indirect,  - I'm not saying that just to use long words man.  Everything we are doing in western-based civility is non-sustainably related to what we're doing to the planet in order to carry on the way we are.  There is no disconnect - sorry ...there isn't...  oy

Ok, I don't contest that it ties in. And I didn't really stumble upon it, I merely overlooked it initially when expatiating on the various economic dominos I consider ripe to tumble. I'm just curious how you apportion climate's contribution to the floods last spring. What is more responsible for that outcome, pattern or climate? The science certainly supports more extreme events in a warmer climate, but couldn't one have epic flooding merely thanks to a stable pattern that supports excessive rain? Or hypothetically, if New England took three canes on the chin in a month, would we be more apt to blame climate or pattern? Please don't take my tone as surly or anything. I'm genuinely curious how you as a trained meteorologist differentiate between extremes driven by pattern versus climate change. Thanks in advance.

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bbbiut Freak and Slot and Dendrite day best NNE not hot summer ever . Somethings gotta give here . Interesting battle between perception and scientific proof . Fascinating 

Yup, your perception of my summer is out-weighed by the scientific proof that the departures from 30-year mean show :lol:.  

But yes this summer of -0.2 for JJA will go down here as one of the hottest perceived summers ever that failed to show in the scientific proof.   

Oh the stories we will tell the grandkids. 

I even know you are trolling and can’t help myself haha.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bbbiut Freak and Slot and Dendrite day best NNE not hot summer ever . Somethings gotta give here . Interesting battle between perception and scientific proof . Fascinating 

06/01 72.2  45.7 0.00    9  0.0  0
06/02 63.8  52.8 0.63   11  0.0  0
06/03 64.3  43.1    T   23  0.0  0
06/04 65.9  41.5 0.01   20  0.0  0
06/05 71.4  48.4 0.33   10  0.0  0
06/06 75.7  53.7 0.33   16  0.0  0
06/07 78.9  46.9 0.00   13  0.0  0
06/08 76.5  51.3 0.00   18  0.0  0
06/09 79.3  47.4 0.00    9  0.0  0
06/10 79.9  50.8 0.03   17  0.0  0
06/11 71.2  50.9 0.83   26  0.0  0
06/12 75.1  45.7 0.00   15  0.0  0
06/13 59.6  46.9 0.32   12  0.0  0
06/14 70.1  46.5    T   17  0.0  0
06/15 78.5  50.1    T   20  0.0  0
06/16 68.2  61.0 0.32   10  0.0  0
06/17 76.6  53.0 0.00   14  0.0  0
06/18 71.6  53.7 0.00    9  0.0  0
06/19 77.3  55.4 0.00   13  0.0  0
06/20 65.8  59.4 0.67    7  0.0  0
06/21 69.9  58.3 0.04   21  0.0  0
06/22 75.8  53.8    T   31  0.0  0
06/23 80.4  54.5 0.00   19  0.0  0
06/24 80.5  55.3 0.00   11  0.0  0
06/25 64.9  52.3 0.70    7  0.0  0
06/26 81.4  61.6 0.24    9  0.0  0
06/27 83.0  61.3 0.00   10  0.0  0
06/28 85.5  59.0 0.00   13  0.0  0
06/29 78.5  62.0 0.11   22  0.0  0
06/30 71.9  57.0 0.22   19  0.0  0
                 4.78       0.0

07/01 81.8  56.0 0.00   18  0.0  0
07/02 83.6  62.2    T   12  0.0  0
07/03 85.0  59.4 0.00   14  0.0  0
07/04 86.6  60.4 0.00    9  0.0  0
07/05 88.3  61.3 0.00   14  0.0  0
07/06 88.6  67.2 0.09   26  0.0  0
07/07 77.7  57.6 0.00   14  0.0  0
07/08 80.3  51.7 0.00    8  0.0  0
07/09 83.1  53.0 0.00   14  0.0  0
07/10 84.6  57.0 0.00   10  0.0  0
07/11 81.7  60.5 0.88   13  0.0  0
07/12 81.1  64.7 0.54   13  0.0  0
07/13 82.4  60.2 0.00   10  0.0  0
07/14 81.6  61.3 0.00   18  0.0  0
07/15 78.5  57.9 0.00   19  0.0  0
07/16 81.6  55.1    T   15  0.0  0
07/17 83.2  65.4    T    9  0.0  0
07/18 78.6  60.4 0.00   13  0.0  0
07/19 87.6  59.1 0.00   11  0.0  0
07/20 91.5  71.1 0.00    9  0.0  0
07/21 89.2  67.7 0.00   20  0.0  0
07/22 72.7  62.5 0.95    9  0.0  0
07/23 70.5  59.5 0.36    8  0.0  0
07/24 77.1  58.2 0.00   16  0.0  0
07/25 78.9  53.4 0.00   10  0.0  0
07/26 82.5  57.2 0.00    9  0.0  0
07/27 83.6  59.6 0.00   11  0.0  0
07/28 86.1  61.1 0.00   12  0.0  0
07/29 86.1  65.5 0.00   10  0.0  0
07/30 89.1  64.1 0.00   11  0.0  0
07/31 80.9  64.5    T    8  0.0  0
                 2.82       0.0

08/01 79.9  56.8 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/02 81.2  52.0 0.00    8  0.0  0
08/03 82.4  55.0 0.01   13  0.0  0
08/04 79.4  55.7 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/05 78.3  49.6 0.00   10  0.0  0
08/06 82.0  51.2 0.00   14  0.0  0
08/07 82.1  63.8 1.40   32  0.0  0
08/08 81.4  64.4 0.01   12  0.0  0
08/09 79.2  55.1 0.05   15  0.0  0
08/10 70.9  52.7 0.01   17  0.0  0
08/11 74.8  51.1 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/12 80.4  52.6 0.00   15  0.0  0
08/13 80.8  62.6 0.03   13  0.0  0
08/14 77.9  59.1 0.00    8  0.0  0
08/15 77.6  56.4 0.00   12  0.0  0
08/16 78.7  62.5 0.07   10  0.0  0
08/17 77.0  64.0 0.96   10  0.0  0
08/18 82.4  64.0 0.43    8  0.0  0
08/19 85.0  65.7    T   15  0.0  0
08/20 82.1  59.0 0.00    9  0.0  0
08/21 68.2  56.8 0.54   13  0.0  0
08/22 81.3  61.1 0.00    9  0.0  0
08/23 75.1  53.5 0.00   14  0.0  0
08/24 72.6  49.4 0.00    9  0.0  0
08/25 71.4  52.0 0.00   13  0.0  0
                 3.51       0.0

 

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22 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Ok, I don't contest that it ties in. And I didn't really stumble upon it, I merely overlooked it initially when expatiating on the various economic dominos I consider ripe to tumble. I'm just curious how you apportion climate's contribution to the floods last spring. What is more responsible for that outcome, pattern or climate? The science certainly supports more extreme events in a warmer climate, but couldn't one have epic flooding merely thanks to a stable pattern that supports excessive rain? Or hypothetically, if New England took three canes on the chin in a month, would we be more apt to blame climate or pattern? Please don't take my tone as surly or anything. I'm genuinely curious how you as a trained meteorologist differentiate between extremes driven by pattern versus climate change. Thanks in advance.

I mean the general person ...  not you.  It's the "problem" with the way "people" see it...  but it did sound like I was blaming you. sorry ha.

Seriously, there is a dangerous in-general knowledge dearth that pervades society, and the hierarchical ownership of learned information is a problem - disseminated by special interest groups seeking political gain or leverage, and or corrupted by others with anything but entirely virtuous...  Whole nother sociological aspect but ...it's part of the general idea that A in the AGW is a sociological problem - as is concurred upon by ...pretty much anyone with a modicum of intelligence both inside and outside the ambit of anything in the goddamn sane universe...

The bottom line is, humanity runs out of time, and we don't have the time to create some zeitgeist of responsibility and morality to the environment - because that takes generations ....

By the time that sort of societal inertia is substantive it's too late... So I guess we're dead already - party on...

Ah... I'd rather differ you to the countless papers that demonstrate the "apportioning" of specific events to climate change - ... the problem with the mantra that climate doesn't control the weather, so we can't blame a flood or a heat wave on the climate ... blah blah blah, is that is just denier tactical evasion bullshit..  Because, it is used to evade the real principle implication ... climate creates a statistical frame where floods and heat waves ...and whatever the models connect ( using the problem solving tool known as mother f'n mathematics ) are increasingly probable of occurrence.

   

 

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55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wonder if the gloom and doom climate alarmists here ever think about some of the possible positive effects of a warmer climate.  Things like increased crop yields, greener earth, increased areas of viable living space etc etc. We adapt. Deaths from natural disasters are a tenth of just 50 years ago. Stop the planet death throes hype. Use less inflammatory rhetoric. Concentrate on reducing air, water pollution which are bigger more imminent threats. And geezus the your a scientist you must agree with me or we blacklist you is about as fascist as it gets 

Wow I never once said that you must agree with me. I am. It fascist either, I’m an open market guy. I do have to say though that having been in the coal remediation industry, that is one fuel we should never need to burn unless absolutely necessarily. However, saying climate scientists don’t know anything about climate is like telling an oncologist, “yeah you don’t know that for sure doc”. We will adapt, I have firm beliefs that humanity will persist, but note, that doesn’t mean we all will survive. And many will experience true issues in their lifetime. Many areas that are within a few feet of sea level in coastal areas have already begun to flood regularly. These areas will likely need relocation. There are many positive effects of a warmer climate, but one shall not gloss over the big negatives either. My current field is vectored diseases and we are seeing a large increase worldwide. 

And for the record, I’m not an alarmist, I’m just pro reducing water and air pollution, which you don’t get from burning bunker fuel and coal. 

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This summer has had a lot of sunshine which has been excellent.  It seemed when it rained it was a lot all at once in multiple convective lines.  

Some years it seems you get a t-storm 5 of 7 days a week...this season it would be week long stretches of sunshine.  We discussed it the other day at work, as this summer had the least amount of lift down-time due to thunder/lightning in the past 5 years.  

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CON JJA

Jun: 64.2F -0.7F
Jul: 73.3F +3.3F
Aug: 69.2F +0.1F (thru 8/25)

Franklin Falls COOP
Jun: 62.8F -1.5F
Jul: 71.8F +2.7F
Aug: 68.6F -0.2F (thru 8/22)

Lakeport COOP
Jun: 64.1F -1.7F
Jul: 73.2F +2.1F
Aug: 69.7F -0.5F (thru 8/25)

 

Facts.

The frail are more subject to suffering during summer. They perceive temps differently. In some cases confusion sets in and they forget what stations represent them geographically. The strobe lights at electric blue only add to the disorientation. We pray 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The frail are more subject to suffering during summer. They perceive temps differently. In some cases confusion sets in and they forget what stations represent them geographically. The strobe lights at electric blue only add to the disorientation. We pray 

I mean there's been a gradient. Not denying it's been a lot warmer down in CT than it has been up here. But for central NH, we're basically looking at 2 months BN and one month solidly above. It all averages out to near normal or slightly above. Factor in comfy dews, lots of sun, and few rainy days and it's been pretty much perfect up here.

63F and dropping quickly now

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Thank you. Out of curiosity, are you familiar with the concept of Great Filters? 

I'm not ... but it sounds like the Fermi paradox stuff ...?  must be involved I bet..

yeah...  I like imagining more along the lines of tech emergence and a species ability to handle it as being a "test" - so to speak...

If you pass it, you're in the club... and if you're in the club, suddenly ...the Universe is festooned with civilizations twinkling their broadcast like stars. 

If not... heh.

It is far more likely that a species joins the countless other failures that failed to pass the " hey y'all - watch this!" test.  It's kind of like Fermi's next stop might have been Great Filtering.  It's something I've thought about in the context of what I just wrote - perhaps as a Novel idea... - I like the idea that there is some ...for lack of better phrase, super natural "essence" ( not going there... ) administering said exam.  Or... perhaps something so vast and advanced, that it simply eludes(ed) our current capacity for perception and thus attention. 

Something like that.  Arthur C. Clark hit on something like that in the thematic arc between those films,  "2001" and "2010: Space Odyss", as well...  I think it's pretty tread upon Sci Fi carpet but still a fascinating conjecture, whether in fantasy such as these...or quantized in any empirical based framework.   

 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not ... but it sounds like the Fermi paradox stuff ...?  must be involved I bet..

yeah...  I like imagining more along the lines of tech emergence and a species ability to handle it as being a "test" - so to speak...

If you pass it, you're in the club... and if you're in the club, suddenly ...the Universe is festooned with civilizations twinkling their broadcast like stars. 

If not... heh.

It is far more likely that a species joins the countless other failures that failed to pass the " hey y'all - watch this!" test.  It's kind of ... for lack of better word, like Fermi's next stop might have been Great Filtering.  I'tis something I've thought about in the context of what I just wrote - perhaps as a Novel idea... - I like the idea that there is some ...for lack of better phrase, super natural "essence" ( not going there... ) administering said exam.  Or... perhaps something so vast and advanced, that it simply eludes(ed) our current capacity for perception and thus attention. 

Something like that.  Arthur C. Clark hit on something like that in the thematic arc between those films,  "2001" and "2010: Space Odyss", as well...  I think it's pretty tread upon Sci Fi carpet but still a fascinating conjecture, whether in fantasy such as these...or quantized in any empirical based framework.    

 

Yeah, you pretty much nailed it. The general idea is that if a civilization reaches a certain level of technological development, we should be able to detect it. But we haven't, so why? Thus the postulate that there may be certain natural and technological barriers that act as filters and either allow a civilization to progress or die out. Perhaps it is exceptionally rare and difficult to reach our present level of development. And even more rare to get over our present challenges, climate, resource depletion, political or otherwise, to become technologically advanced enough to spread out to neighboring planets/star systems. It probably gets easier to create extinction level risks as tech becomes increasingly powerful and distributed. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

06/01 72.2  45.7 0.00    9  0.0  0
06/02 63.8  52.8 0.63   11  0.0  0
06/03 64.3  43.1    T   23  0.0  0
06/04 65.9  41.5 0.01   20  0.0  0
06/05 71.4  48.4 0.33   10  0.0  0
06/06 75.7  53.7 0.33   16  0.0  0
06/07 78.9  46.9 0.00   13  0.0  0
06/08 76.5  51.3 0.00   18  0.0  0
06/09 79.3  47.4 0.00    9  0.0  0
06/10 79.9  50.8 0.03   17  0.0  0
06/11 71.2  50.9 0.83   26  0.0  0
06/12 75.1  45.7 0.00   15  0.0  0
06/13 59.6  46.9 0.32   12  0.0  0
06/14 70.1  46.5    T   17  0.0  0
06/15 78.5  50.1    T   20  0.0  0
06/16 68.2  61.0 0.32   10  0.0  0
06/17 76.6  53.0 0.00   14  0.0  0
06/18 71.6  53.7 0.00    9  0.0  0
06/19 77.3  55.4 0.00   13  0.0  0
06/20 65.8  59.4 0.67    7  0.0  0
06/21 69.9  58.3 0.04   21  0.0  0
06/22 75.8  53.8    T   31  0.0  0
06/23 80.4  54.5 0.00   19  0.0  0
06/24 80.5  55.3 0.00   11  0.0  0
06/25 64.9  52.3 0.70    7  0.0  0
06/26 81.4  61.6 0.24    9  0.0  0
06/27 83.0  61.3 0.00   10  0.0  0
06/28 85.5  59.0 0.00   13  0.0  0
06/29 78.5  62.0 0.11   22  0.0  0
06/30 71.9  57.0 0.22   19  0.0  0
                 4.78       0.0

07/01 81.8  56.0 0.00   18  0.0  0
07/02 83.6  62.2    T   12  0.0  0
07/03 85.0  59.4 0.00   14  0.0  0
07/04 86.6  60.4 0.00    9  0.0  0
07/05 88.3  61.3 0.00   14  0.0  0
07/06 88.6  67.2 0.09   26  0.0  0
07/07 77.7  57.6 0.00   14  0.0  0
07/08 80.3  51.7 0.00    8  0.0  0
07/09 83.1  53.0 0.00   14  0.0  0
07/10 84.6  57.0 0.00   10  0.0  0
07/11 81.7  60.5 0.88   13  0.0  0
07/12 81.1  64.7 0.54   13  0.0  0
07/13 82.4  60.2 0.00   10  0.0  0
07/14 81.6  61.3 0.00   18  0.0  0
07/15 78.5  57.9 0.00   19  0.0  0
07/16 81.6  55.1    T   15  0.0  0
07/17 83.2  65.4    T    9  0.0  0
07/18 78.6  60.4 0.00   13  0.0  0
07/19 87.6  59.1 0.00   11  0.0  0
07/20 91.5  71.1 0.00    9  0.0  0
07/21 89.2  67.7 0.00   20  0.0  0
07/22 72.7  62.5 0.95    9  0.0  0
07/23 70.5  59.5 0.36    8  0.0  0
07/24 77.1  58.2 0.00   16  0.0  0
07/25 78.9  53.4 0.00   10  0.0  0
07/26 82.5  57.2 0.00    9  0.0  0
07/27 83.6  59.6 0.00   11  0.0  0
07/28 86.1  61.1 0.00   12  0.0  0
07/29 86.1  65.5 0.00   10  0.0  0
07/30 89.1  64.1 0.00   11  0.0  0
07/31 80.9  64.5    T    8  0.0  0
                 2.82       0.0

08/01 79.9  56.8 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/02 81.2  52.0 0.00    8  0.0  0
08/03 82.4  55.0 0.01   13  0.0  0
08/04 79.4  55.7 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/05 78.3  49.6 0.00   10  0.0  0
08/06 82.0  51.2 0.00   14  0.0  0
08/07 82.1  63.8 1.40   32  0.0  0
08/08 81.4  64.4 0.01   12  0.0  0
08/09 79.2  55.1 0.05   15  0.0  0
08/10 70.9  52.7 0.01   17  0.0  0
08/11 74.8  51.1 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/12 80.4  52.6 0.00   15  0.0  0
08/13 80.8  62.6 0.03   13  0.0  0
08/14 77.9  59.1 0.00    8  0.0  0
08/15 77.6  56.4 0.00   12  0.0  0
08/16 78.7  62.5 0.07   10  0.0  0
08/17 77.0  64.0 0.96   10  0.0  0
08/18 82.4  64.0 0.43    8  0.0  0
08/19 85.0  65.7    T   15  0.0  0
08/20 82.1  59.0 0.00    9  0.0  0
08/21 68.2  56.8 0.54   13  0.0  0
08/22 81.3  61.1 0.00    9  0.0  0
08/23 75.1  53.5 0.00   14  0.0  0
08/24 72.6  49.4 0.00    9  0.0  0
08/25 71.4  52.0 0.00   13  0.0  0
                 3.51       0.0

 

Don’t be that chart guy.

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Already down to 57/48 here in Worcester. Sipping an IPA this evening and I head home tomorrow morning. All in all an awesome trip, it's probably gonna be a chilly night up here.

I would love to come up here to do a blizzard chase in the winter when there is a 40/70 benchmark bomb cyclone of yore.

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Wow I never once said that you must agree with me. I am. It fascist either, I’m an open market guy. I do have to say though that having been in the coal remediation industry, that is one fuel we should never need to burn unless absolutely necessarily. However, saying climate scientists don’t know anything about climate is like telling an oncologist, “yeah you don’t know that for sure doc”. We will adapt, I have firm beliefs that humanity will persist, but note, that doesn’t mean we all will survive. And many will experience true issues in their lifetime. Many areas that are within a few feet of sea level in coastal areas have already begun to flood regularly. These areas will likely need relocation. There are many positive effects of a warmer climate, but one shall not gloss over the big negatives either. My current field is vectored diseases and we are seeing a large increase worldwide. 

And for the record, I’m not an alarmist, I’m just pro reducing water and air pollution, which you don’t get from burning bunker fuel and coal. 

:clap:

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26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

2nd day in a row where I failed to reach 70F.   In August.   With plenty of sun. 

Neat.  

54F attm.  Upper 40s enroute.  

Pretty impressive though for the reasons Tip stated too... it’s not like the heights are overly low.  

Yesterday was 70/44 but today was much warmer at 77/48.  No highs in the 60s yet.  

Tonight should plummet though.  Like you, 54F here now.

Best chill tonight relative to normal likely across CNE and RT 2 corridor.

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