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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Better get some rain out of this heat 

You would think but rain has missed this area any which way it can the past month.

I'd say we will hopefully average that out this winter but more likely this dry regime is making up for the 30"+ we got between 7/15 - 10/15 of 2018.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I feel like it’s between you and CON/MHT where the torch gradient has set up this summer.

We we’re still a bit below normal as of last night for August.

Have yet to reach 80 this month unless today did so, which I doubt due to the clouds hanging on until late morning.  Temps running about 1.5° BN here, so Farmington is probably close to their 1981-2010 norms.

Got 7-10'ed by todays storms, nice car wash driving thru Belgrade, very pretty towers not far to the north, 0.02" at home.  :mellow:

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It'll be funny when they start pulling BN months again come the 2020s.

We'll start getting stories about global cooling.

I'm still torn on what to do for my normals.  For now I'm using my full 35 year record instead of a moving 30 year average.  It's interesting in that the second half of the record averages about 0.4° warmer than the first half so if I look at a graph of monthly departures a lot of the months in the first half are BN.  I do this one graph that I call the departure index which is a sum of the daily departures positive and negative for the month and you can really see which months are stand-outs and which ones are ho-hum.

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Good luck with that ...

Solar cycle/AMOC are reeling to the  ... eh hm, other factors -

The problem is BTV has developed a site change or the UHI has expanded to the ASOS. The pre-UHI days are still factored into the 30 year normals. So while everyone else is pulling a -2F month BTV is still at +1F or something. The 1991-2020 norms should drop those days of yore in the 80s.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Have yet to reach 80 this month unless today did so, which I doubt due to the clouds hanging on until late morning.  Temps running about 1.5° BN here, so Farmington is probably close to their 1981-2010 norms.

Ha, that's hilarious.  Going the first three weeks of August and failing to hit even 80F... impressive.

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25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The problem is BTV has developed a site change or the UHI has expanded to the ASOS. The pre-UHI days are still factored into the 30 year normals. So while everyone else is pulling a -2F month BTV is still at +1F or something. The 1991-2020 norms should drop those days of yore in the 80s.

Yeah it will be funny when those new normals kick in and really add in the last 10-15 years of records. 

For BTV to be below normal right now, the rest of the VT ASOS stations have to run like -3 or -4 at the least (and the MVL/MPV/1V4 departures are normally very close to each other).

Hopefully the new normals at least get the BTV departures in line with the rest of the North Country.

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12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

So next week looks like the flow becomes more SE again with high pressure overhead or just offshore. Front approaches from the west so depending on location, could be times of shwrs and storms, although my guess is best chance west. Doesn't seem overly hot. Probably 80s with moderate humidity. This weekend into early next week does look quite nice.  Early peak at Labor Day looks fairly warm, but again front nearby. If it's just offshore it will be lower humidity again...but my guess for now is 75-85ish or so (depending on location) with maybe moderate humidity. Things certainly could change as we get closer.

They’re ignoring and calling for COC k rest of month . I know where my money lies 

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it will be funny when those new normals kick in and really add in the last 10-15 years of records. 

For BTV to be below normal right now, the rest of the VT ASOS stations have to run like -3 or -4 at the least (and the MVL/MPV/1V4 departures are normally very close to each other).

Hopefully the new normals at least get the BTV departures in line with the rest of the North Country.

70s were relatively cold for BTV compared to MPV, but check out that stepwise jump in the 2010s.

image.png

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 It’s always cloudy there 

Mt Mansfield today says, "I have no idea what you are talking about." 

LOL, like a dark UFO sitting over the Spine all day with sun to the west and east.

Orographic lift doesn't discriminate between seasons.  Air is always rising.

5wGno6M.jpg

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok. Quoted for posterity . COC all week you and charts . Moderate dews at times me and Scoots.. GL 

What are your thoughts for dews at BDL/ORH next week?  Honest answer for posterity.  Can't play the semantics game if you lay down some numbers at your two closest climo sites.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So you went from 70+ dews as far as the shriveled weenie can see to moderate dews at times? awesome...we knew you’d come around, pre-gaming for Oct 1st. 

Preseason...getting his work in. Will probably play the entire first half next week and the first drive of the 3rd quarter.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Draw your lines. You never make any forecasts. Just hide behind your mod tag and troll everyone. Make a freaking forecast 

Huh? I think I'm the only one who threw out August numbers with you. And I just posted...a brief warmup followed by another cool down.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Mt Mansfield today says, "I have no idea what you are talking about." 

LOL, like a dark UFO sitting over the Spine all day with sun to the west and east.

Orographic lift doesn't discriminate between seasons.  Air is always rising.

5wGno6M.jpg

Lots of angry kids yelling for mama. 

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