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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

IJD is secretly a good place to look when you know the CAD is breaking at the sfc around Kevin. They'll be 33F and rain while Kevin is like 28F and ZR/IP. Then all of the sudden IJD will spike to 38F and you know he's done within an hour and it's 33F and RA up on the massif while it rots in the 20s for another 3-5 hours up in interior MA. 

 

Many times they go to rain as the low tracks over outer Cape and we stay below 32. Many times 

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Hit the trifecta up here.  Two beautiful low-dew days for our annual "peer review" field trip, then some rain for the garden this morning.  Probably 1/4" or less (0.13" for cocorahs at 7 AM) as the better echoes split and went N & S of Rt 2, but would've been a messy morning for our crew if it had arrived yesterday morning.

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When most who share in a passion for weather and climate related Sciences read or hear of 'negative arctic oscillation' ...chances are, their immediate imagination sparks images and facets of stormier, colder times ... After all, this is conditioned to do so by memory alone;  -AO very much so maintains a positive correlation coefficients with mid latitude temperature anomaly distribution/tendencies... , and therefrom ....concomitant storminess tends to follow. blah blah the rest is history.... 

However, -AO doesn't mean the same thing for high latitudes as it does for mid latitudes ( consequentially...).  Think 'what goes up ...must come down,' in a sense.  Or in this case, when we go down...they ( meaning boreal regions above ~ the 60th parallel ) go up...  Thru the 'what goes up(down) ... must come up(down)'  yin and yang model, the atmosphere ultimately achieves mass balance - we call this process ... conservation of mass.  And since mass is not lost or destroyed in any metric volume in the atmosphere.... conservation of mass is always taking place.   Thus, when the heights rise over Greenland...the Alaskan sector...or ridging arms across the Polar regions in general... heights are falling somewhere outside these regions to compensate.  Heights are not a measure of mass...no. However, they do give a perfect outline ...kind of like a blue print, of where/how the rail system that delivers warmth north and cool south, is orientated.  That system is the conservation mechanics at work... which is all rooted back ultimately to differential heating between the poles, vs the equator, then perturbed by differential air/land/sea interface perturbation, all occurring over a rotating curved service (Earth)... and on and so on..

The reason for the primer is to point out that while we "failed" to cash in on a below normal summer from a predominately -AO summer ... ( for reasons we'll avoid for the time being eh hm) the northern latitudes of the hemisphere have NOT failed to cash in on the warmth that is typical in those regions associated with blocking.  From Alaska to Greenland ... the summer has garland fantastic warm anomalies at these ~ latitudes. Whether that is physically provable as connected to the 'elephant in the room' or not... the summer temperature anomaly behavior its self ( not the magnitude ) was definitely consistent with the predominating negative Arctiv Oscillation. 

But here's the rub...  People would argue, ... you stick your hand out the window in Utqiagvik -> Barrow -> Utqiagvik, Alaska on January 15th under an over-arcing, +3 standard deviation middle to upper tropospheric geopoential height anomaly, it feels like bone chilling cold, still air, though.   And, they'd be right...  But, atmospheric physics doesn't really care how you're hand feels in the cold, still air.  You have to disconnect your perception of cold and hot, and how those typically are associated to atmospheric events, as being incidentally related in nature, to begin to understand this. The higher heights ... tend to be associated with downward vertical motion... This causes atmospheric surface pressure to rise... so, you get high pressure, with calm winds.   Add in a very long/and/or 24-hours of darkness associated to very high latitudes during the perennial solar nadir times of the year ... radiational cooling happening ( over snow pack often too ) at all times means that the lower levels of the atmosphere do indeed get very very cold... This is the air that then gets move away and transported into a "cold loading" into the Canadian shield when the indexes signal mass disruption... that's the crude and quick model.  

However, in a -AO summer... there are no eternally dark, heat hemorrhage skies losing what gossamer warmth there is. In fact, rather the opposite ... with albeit modestly warming, angular sun shining almost perpetually under these ridge umbrellas ... the lower level temperatures are forced to rise. Over the Millennia ... by virtue of the fact that the poles are so cold to begin with... and the sun angle, even in high summer, tends to remain relatively low in the sky ... that means that the back ground conditioning offsets the lengthening summer day's heating potential...so these kind of biases get absorbed ...and this sort of shit doesn't happen, 

CNN:  "After months of record temperatures, scientists say Greenland's ice sheet experienced its biggest melt of the summer on Thursday, losing 11 billion tons of surface ice to the ocean -- equivalent to 4.4 million Olympic swimming pools.

Greenland's ice sheet usually melts during the summer, but the melt season typically begins around the end of May; this year it began at the start. It has been melting "persistently" over the past four months, which have recorded all time temperature highs, according to Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist with Danish Meteorological Institute."

Now ...there is that pesky little variable of uncertainty known as "CNN" ... a morally unscrupulous news source that would read this sentence with a stone, sociopath's expression ... unreached or undeterred by the notion that they are rarely taken seriously anymore due to their consummate aggrandizing of headline content for shock -jock ratings/revving their big media profit engine... ... But should this corroborate with other sources, ...that calculates out to ~ 9.9 billion metric tonnes of water ... and since 1 metric tonne of water makes a cubic meter... we can divide by a factor of 1,000 to get the KM cubic volume ... and, crudely, not considering temperature and salinity and so forth...  that's some 9.9 cubic KM of water we've just asked the ocean's to absorb in a single day.  ... spread out over a sphere the size of the the Earth's 70% oceanic area is ... The Earth is a big place... The Oceans attune some 1.3+ B cubic KM of volumetric space in water... and we also have to consider that it's not a flat - curve-relative surface... Temperature and gravity variances make it sloped by small measures from point to point at greater distance...wave/storm/atmospheric pressure variance also passsing over ...it's a tumult really... so, trying to assess how 9.9 cubic KM of wate would effect the former number is ...probably akin to negligible...   

This is the problem with climate deniers... That word, right there ... ' negligible'  ....   as in, "See, it's okay"    It seems like the latest morphology of the denier mantra is that the science can't be trusted ...more so than denying the science its self...  Aside from the obvious, that if you have to morph your argument...chances are, it's flawed....  The fact its negligible is a scalar truism ...that does not reflect the future state when the system is in a state of flux... But, you can't penetrate their mindsets with logic - they'll hand wave contrarian faux logic perspective as they careen off the cliff. 

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3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

only 0.25", but we'll take it. Not the greatest looking wx for boating tomorrow

Just got off the phone with Ed, Its still a go, Looks to be cloudy, Calm winds though, Showers late afternoon possibly, He has a bunch from Mass coming up to go with him and Becky tomorrow, Were heading to Sebago, Some have never been down thru the locke, And its a nice cruise down the Songo so that's where we are heading for the day.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe he was talking about a screamer ..so if he thinks IJD is some secret that gives away the rest of the region will torch .. I thought we all knew that?

Lol you know the type of storms I was talking about. Those triple pointers over SE MA that the primary tracks into Ny state...you spike to 36-38 eventually while it never makes freezing to your north until like 33-34F at FROPA. 

Or maybe it's just a straight track over ginxy. Worst ice storm of my life did that back in 2008. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol you know the type of storms I was talking about. Those triple pointers over SE MA that the primary tracks into Ny state...you spike to 36-38 eventually while it never makes freezing to your north until like 33-34F at FROPA. 

Or maybe it's just a straight track over ginxy. Worst ice storm of my life did that back in 2008. 

That’s not true. A lot of those I stay at or below freezing with zr and as it gets past my latitude I drop back into the 20’s. I can name numerous storms where that’s happened . That’s if it’s a Cape tracker. If it tracks over Ginx then yeah.. I’ll get to near 40 easily 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not true. A lot of those I stay at or below freezing with zr and as it gets past my latitude I drop back into the 20’s. I can name numerous storms where that’s happened . That’s if it’s a Cape tracker. If it tracks over Ginx then yeah.. I’ll get to near 40 easily 

Any time there's a southerly component to the winds, we'll flip.  There's nothing to your south to stop it.  I have seem where you and I will be above freezing and places just to my north will stay below.  It's because there's a higher plateau to their south that gives them a little blocking.  The best track for us is right about the CC canal.  Anything further west and we run the risk of mixing regardless of altitude.

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30 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

12z GFS def mutes the cool down next week and torches again D8 onwards, wouldn't shock me to see it play out like that tbh 

Yeeeeah... I'm not so sure.  I realize you say, "...wouldn't shock me" in jest and I get what you mean... but, the GFS has been yo-yooing ridge vs trough domination all summer long... Really been unusable along the 45th parallel in particular ...  Purely for my own observations, it seems it has been more accurate within the bowls of the subtropics, or safely above the westerly mean jet ( however nebular/summer defined).  Anything along that ~ midriff latitude around the girdle of the hemisphere ...it's seems it has been more variant at time range between D5 and 10...  I mean ( haha ) what are we caring.... "day 5 +"?  ... just sayn'

I kind of give the model a pass on that seasonal behavior though?   Not that you asked... a little soap-boxing: 

I really think the hemisphere is reeling ... well...the model is, between -AO and a summer that is, even if only in decimal equavalence, getting a bit of a positive feed-back/synergy from GW... It's almost impossible to really separate these latter ....by definition of synergy, the gestalt seems to be a greater quantity than the sum of the individual factors that create it - emergent properties of complex systems ... they'll getcha every time.  Anyway, with the -AO pervasive and predominate over the higher latitude N. Hemisphere ...that's putting an unusual sort of inimicable strain on the performs of the "Global Forecast System" - I just suspect this is beyond the state of the art of the technology frankly...  

Anyway, we'll see how it fairs later in the fall...  I do wonder though if it still has a progressive bias - in which case, it would still be too shallow with troughs in the winter... and too shallow with ridges in the summer if you can see how that be the case - 

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