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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, powderfreak said:

Cooler Coast tonight. 

Strengthening SWly flow aloft tonight and increasing clouds overnight should keep things much milder tonight than last night up this way.

IKVZM8s.jpg

Last 3 days have been really comfortable down here. Probably even through Saturday it seems we have onshore flow.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Touché.  I missed the IJD reading as well.

Yea I didn’t realize those low lying areas east of the CT river torch that easily compared to us west of the river. Oxford airport at 725’ just down the road from me is always cooler and less dewey than they are, so glad we live here. 

68/63 now, still comfortable. Great month.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I didn’t realize those low lying areas east of the CT river torch that easily compared to us west of the river. Oxford airport at 725’ just down the road from me is always cooler and less dewey than they are, so glad we live here. 

68/63 now, still comfortable. Great month.

IJD is secretly a good place to look when you know the CAD is breaking at the sfc around Kevin. They'll be 33F and rain while Kevin is like 28F and ZR/IP. Then all of the sudden IJD will spike to 38F and you know he's done within an hour and it's 33F and RA up on the massif while it rots in the 20s for another 3-5 hours up in interior MA. 

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

IJD is secretly a good place to look when you know the CAD is breaking at the sfc around Kevin. They'll be 33F and rain while Kevin is like 28F and ZR/IP. Then all of the sudden IJD will spike to 38F and you know he's done within an hour and it's 33F and RA up on the massif while it rots in the 20s for another 3-5 hours up in interior MA. 

 

Followed by radio silence. He's giddy as a school boy when it's going his way....quiet as a mouse when he's disappointed. Then, he reappears 5 hours later and claims he's happy to still have snow left, while ORH is digging out of 10" of fresh snow.

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Followed by radio silence. He's giddy as a school boy when it's going his way....quiet as a mouse when he's disappointed. Then, he reappears 5 hours later and claims he's happy to still have snow left, while ORH is digging out of 10" of fresh snow.

5 hours of listening to country music all alone in the basement...he’s a changed boy with a fresh perspective. Then this happens in the summer and back he goes. 

gfs_Td2m_neus_33.png

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It's sounding game time!!!!! (Note: The game will take a break on the weekends unless I feel to do so otherwise)

Here is a sounding from around the Kansas City area for 0z Friday evening. A very nice loaded gun sounding (extreme CAPE) characterized by MLCAPE > 5,000 J/KG and mlvl lapse rates of 8.5 C/KM! In addition to the extreme instability we also see strong wind shear present with both speed and directional shear noted. This is leading to a large and curved hodograph. 

 

2019081606_NAM_018_38.43,-94.77_severe_m

 

I like this sounding b/c it indicatives an extreme thermodynamic environment coupled with very strong wind shear. Synoptically, there will be shortwave energy moving through along with a very well defined (well multiple) surface boundaries. This will be a focal point for extreme convection later today...likely explosive development with activity quickly converging into an MCS. Training t'storms are likely as well. Damaging winds and very large hail likely along with a few tornadoes with discrete cells. Significant flash flooding possible too. 

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