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USCAPEWEATHERAF

Tropical Depression 03L

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16 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

you will eating your words Matt P.  It is finally developing that outer armor it needs

Whoops

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No need to chastise the OP. This is hopefully a learning curve for future reference. Though the system is classified, that is not the point. The issue wasn't "the call" in so much as the excessive nature of the thread and initial post that started it, regardless of TC development.

 

We all have opinions and ideas to share on any initial area of interest. However, there is a single post by the author in the main seasonal thread that pertains to the disturbance that became TD3. Without any further discussion, much less input from anyone else, decided to begin a storm thread on a non-classified system with language that suggested a potentially dangerous situation unfolding. Now perhaps that could have been the case, and in the future, it most certainly will be the case. We have had times that mere disturbances / invests warranted a serious tone due to practical confidence, modeling and meteorological support. But TD3 was not one of those times. And yes, I realize some systems are missed by the models, but that still isn't the point here.

 

We have a seasonal thread to iron out differences of opinion on each individual invest. We can share all the data from the models and from leading forecasters, many of whom are on social media. If everyone takes responsibility on their posts and participates accordingly, we don't end up having a thread digress into mockery on the subforum.

 

TL;DR version: As a general rule, don't start a storm thread on a system until it is officially classified a tropical cyclone. If discussion in the seasonal thread warrants a storm thread on an invest/disturbance, a single person won't need to make that call. Rest assured many will already be hyping on the disturbance. This isn't a race to see who posts first, neither is it journalism. Nobody gets recognition or an award for being the first. Likewise, don't get your feelings hurt if you are proven wrong. Many of us here have been flat wrong many times about tropical systems, but that does not mean we were irresponsible with our words.

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Though convection reinitiated over night, it's elongated along the northern half of the broader wave axis quite a distance away from the estimated vortex track plot. I'm having a tough time finding an ill-defined center on radar but it may be the isolated cluster of cells to the northwest of Grand Bahama. Curved banding of the stronger complex to the north may be limited to mid level turning even if that feature has taken over. At any rate, the system has a stretched appearance and isn't aligned. I am beating a dead horse.abdb6a6295e4155295f39b9ce8c262de.gif

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bye bye dangerous TD 3

 

Remnants Of Three Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Recent surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the depression has
degenerated into a trough of low pressure.  Although the plane
found a weak closed circulation near the northwestern edge of the
convection earlier this morning, the last pass through that area
has shown light southwesterly winds and no evidence of a surface
circulation.  As a result, this will be the final advisory
on this system.  Data from the aircraft indicate that the system is
still producing winds of around 30 kt, and this remains the initial
intensity. The system is likely to continue producing gusty winds
through tonight.

The remnants are moving northward or 360/15 kt.  The remnants should
turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within
southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front near the southeastern
United States.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 29.0N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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