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Big New England heat 7/19-21

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Deja vu?

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019071900_72_476_217.png

There’s the Sunday relief up here.  That’s a solid gradient from upper 70s to near 80F in NVT/NNH to 100F on the coastal plain SE of the Mtns.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Clouds melting away quickly in CT heading east. Like a hair follicle on Kevin's head.

socked in heavy heavy here....I think we under perform....81 max. 

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There’s the Sunday relief up here.  That’s a solid gradient from upper 70s to near 80F in NVT/NNH to 100F on the coastal plain SE of the Mtns.

Boundary comes through in the afternoon here last I looked. Maybe it’ll work out like a dryline type trough here...or at least a wind shift to the W-NW to compress the torch airmass already in place. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nary a cloud here. 

Truly a COC morning.  Suns out guns out. Before the humidity goes bonkers getting ready outside for the fam to come for the weekend to the designated cooling center lol.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Have u hit 70 on your sensor ?

Its pretty cool to look at home PWS and see how the hills shadow temps on the west side of them, I am 69 while downtown in the valley plain is already 75/76

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Did you know National Climate Assessment says heat waves are occurring less and are shorter? Most of our "new climate summers " as has been stated in here is driven by higher minimums 

IMG_20190719_092000.jpg

IMG_20190719_092358.jpg

IMG_20190719_092358.jpg

IMG_20190719_092415.jpg

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Probably because the dews limit the heating potential during the day a bit. We get a lot more 88/75 crap to muck up potential heat waves. If you check the scrolls, we used to pull 90/50 type airmasses back in the days of yore...even in summer. Today, we’re basically just a greenhouse. 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did you know National Climate Assessment says heat waves are occurring less and are shorter? Most of our "new climate summers " as has been stated in here is driven by higher minimums 

IMG_20190719_092000.jpg

IMG_20190719_092358.jpg

IMG_20190719_092358.jpg

IMG_20190719_092415.jpg

Makes sense in comparison to the dewpoint chart posted the other day. When the air dry it heats up fast, when its laden with moisture, it takes more energy to heat up. 

Generally, the more humid the air, the lower the temps. 

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And some of that is due to the poor farming practices/dust bowl in the early 1900s. We popped some massive central US ridges back then in the summer and it was dry as hell. 

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Still cloudy here, 72F

It's nice starting the day from a moderate launch pad.   Helps ease one into the heat. 

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53 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Boundary comes through in the afternoon here last I looked. Maybe it’ll work out like a dryline type trough here...or at least a wind shift to the W-NW to compress the torch airmass already in place. 

NAM delayed the boundary I think, gets it really hot up here again.  

Big bust potential tomorrow around here on temps... could be like 90F or 78F tomorrow afternoon.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bastardi and D'Aleo trying hard to come up with tweets to counter GW. It's cute to see.

He tries too hard.  I’m not sure what his stance is, if it’s not AGW or if he really believes there’s no warming happening but whenever I read him it comes off as if he’s trying to convince himself more than anything.

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WPC was still analyzing the warm boundary as west of SNE/VT/NH... as of 11z ...   Looking around at morning obs and all these calm winds and patch-work strata contamination lingering... that's probably still the case. 

There's really not much impetus left for retarding it with the exception of one all-important circumstance. One that we share with other regions of the planet that abut elevations next to low-lands. In our case, it's the Berks'/Whites and Greens. They create a barrier,  'trapping' stagnant air east of their cordillera, where the elevations slope away toward the ocean.   The ocean boundary layer, also creates a quasi barrier for other reasons..  Right now, we trap -

That is why this area needs extra double top-secret hard work it seems to get warm boundary to not stop and wait at the western NE doorstop.  And also, what seems to at time literally 'drawl'/force air masses to suck back in from the NE.  There's a kind of counter-current vector that always in place...  In this situation as of this hour, the only thing capable of countermanding that factor is the insolation warming the interior and helping to homogenize the inversion out.. I recall reading AFDs outta Taunton back in the 1990s... someone had correlated a necessitated 22 kts of 850 mb wind from the S in order to overcome the retarding warm front thing... but I think that was more of a index-finger trick-o-the-trade at that NWS office... 

Anyway, we'll probably heat up... we may have late highs ... 3 to 6 pm west to east.  The 00z NAM was hitting 30 C at T1 in the grid... That's usually good for 34 C in the 2MT ...provided the sky is open and the wind is favorable.  So, (34+34) = 68;  (68-6.8) + 32 is ~ 93 ...and MOS at that time was 92 so... 06z is then came in with 29 C... Given to current circumstances... shaving a degree or two on the F equiv. of 33 C may not be a bad idea?  

Then I'm impressed...  Again, multiple intervals ... 7, sustaining 580+DM thickness!  That is something I have never seen from this particular modeling tool ... spanning some 25 or more years of usage... That begins in earnest tonight ...and lasts through Sunday...   The longevity of that parametric is the outstanding aspect, not so much the 580 value its self.  We seen that hit a few times... increasing in frequency as another "hot" topic I don't wanna get into.. But stringing them together and sustaining intervals is amazing.  I mentioned last night and still suspect the same... that's some kind of a "thermodynamic record" ...   

Everyone's concerned about the highs ...and that's understandable.  But I think the insidious nature of this particular heat wave may in fact be the elevated nocturnal lows... Those should be records that are in jeopardy I would think.  Particularly tomorrow night...  I mean, seeing the NAM with 30 C at Logan at 2 am ... with a light west wind straight out of the core of the urban complex is... Combining Will's suspicion of the Logan calibration issue, notwithstanding, that still going to perform in the actual thermometer house regardless... I mean, we're talking 84 vs 86?  Either number in Phoenixian, only ...with DP - not relatively tolerated dry desert air.  Holy hell...  Those 580 thickness tell why...  There is so much water vapor that is already storing huge thermal energy ... there atmosphere like ...simply CAN'T cool down.  That's what we're essentially looking at... 582 dm thickness over night.  Never seen that.  

You know ... as some kind of metaphoric perspective ..this is the antithesis of the winter blizzard bomb ?  You have some years, like ... 2015, where you're observing repeating cold incursions that roll out 'just in time' for rain... and those are followed by more earth concreting.   You get the notion that it's playing with fire...  Just can't seem to get the cold and the moisture, concurrently situated in space and time...  IF ever so, boom.  Well, we all know what happened that year! 

Here... we've had a wet go of it... Now, we've played with matches and managed to super-impose a pretty spectacular (actually) thermal anomaly within that moist sort of paradigm, and viola!  We have to integrate the hydrostatic equation with an ideal gas law that's pigged out on water vapor ...and you end up with ungodly torrid thicknesses...  Interesting..

 

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bastardi and D'Aleo trying hard to come up with tweets to counter GW. It's cute to see.

Have they brought up when the vikings lived on Greenland yet?

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

WPC was still analyzing the warm boundary as west of SNE/VT/NH... as of 11z ...   Looking around at morning obs and all these calm winds and patch-work strata contamination lingering... that's probably still the case. 

There's really not much impetus left for retarding it with the exception of one all-important circumstance. One that we share with other regions of the planet that abut elevations next to low-lands. In our case, it's the Berks'/Whites and Greens. They create a barrier,  'trapping' stagnant air east of their cordillera, where the elevations slope away toward the ocean.   The ocean boundary layer, also creates a quasi barrier for other reasons..  Right now, we trap -

That is why this area needs extra double top-secret hard work it seems to get warm boundary to not stop and wait at the western NE doorstop.  And also, what seems to at time literally 'drawl'/force air masses to suck back in from the NE.  There's a kind of counter-current vector that always in place...  In this situation as of this hour, the only thing capable of countermanding that factor is the insolation warming the interior and helping to homogenize the inversion out.. I recall reading AFDs outta Taunton back in the 1990s... someone had correlated a necessitated 22 kts of 850 mb wind from the S in order to overcome the retarding warm front thing... but I think that was more of a index-finger trick-o-the-trade at that NWS office... 

Anyway, we'll probably heat up... we may have late highs ... 3 to 6 pm west to east.  The 00z NAM was hitting 30 C at T1 in the grid... That's usually good for 34 C in the 2MT ...provided the sky is open and the wind is favorable.  So, (34+34) = 68;  (68-6.8) + 32 is ~ 93 ...and MOS at that time was 92 so... 06z is then came in with 29 C... Given to current circumstances... shaving a degree or two on the F equiv. of 33 C may not be a bad idea?  

Then I'm impressed...  Again, multiple intervals ... 7, sustaining 580+DM thickness!  That is something I have never seen from this particular modeling tool ... spanning some 25 or more years of usage... That begins in earnest tonight ...and lasts through Sunday...   The longevity of that parametric is the outstanding aspect, not so much the 580 value its self.  We seen that hit a few times... increasing in frequency as another "hot" topic I don't wanna get into.. But stringing them together and sustaining intervals is amazing.  I mentioned last night and still suspect the same... that's some kind of a "thermodynamic record" ...   

Everyone's concerned about the highs ...and that's understandable.  But I think the insidious nature of this particular heat wave may in fact be the elevated nocturnal lows... Those should be records that are in jeopardy I would think.  Particularly tomorrow night...  I mean, seeing the NAM with 30 C at Logan at 2 am ... with a light west wind straight out of the core of the urban complex is... Combining Will's suspicion of the Logan calibration issue, notwithstanding, that still going to perform in the actual thermometer house regardless... I mean, we're talking 84 vs 86?  Either number in Phoenixian, only ...with DP - not relatively tolerated dry desert air.  Holy hell...  Those 580 thickness tell why...  There is so much water vapor that is already storing huge thermal energy ... there atmosphere like ...simply CAN'T cool down.  That's what we're essentially looking at... 582 dm thickness over night.  Never seen that.  

You know ... as some kind of metaphoric perspective ..this is the antithesis of the winter blizzard bomb ?  You have some years, like ... 2015, where you're observing repeating cold incursions that roll out 'just in time' for rain... and those are followed by more earth concreting.   You get the notion that it's playing with fire...  Just can't seem to get the cold and the moisture, concurrently situated in space and time...  IF ever so, boom.  Well, we all know what happened that year! 

Here... we've had a wet go of it... Now, we've played with matches and managed to super-impose a pretty spectacular (actually) thermal anomaly within that moist sort of paradigm, and viola!  We have to integrate the hydrostatic equation with an ideal gas law that's pigged out on water vapor ...and you end up with ungodly torrid thicknesses...  Interesting..

 

If deaths from the heat occur and Lord pray they don’t, most of them will occur at night with folks who can’t cool down trying to sleep 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Have they brought up when the vikings lived on Greenland yet?

Not only lived there, but raised field crops, not just subsisting on sheep plus fishing.  Of course, I've read that the medieval warm period was limited in its extent, thus not all that significant from a global climate standpoint.

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Kicking off the high heat weekend with a killer breakfast on the grill . Gorgeous out here. Lets do this. Get in /near water you will survive. 

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12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not only lived there, but raised field crops, not just subsisting on sheep plus fishing.  Of course, I've read that the medieval warm period was limited in its extent, thus not all that significant from a global climate standpoint.

Actually I read a book on the medieval warm period and it was a 4 century warm fest.  

One issue today is there is so much real time data that everything is magnified.  With that said, scientific consensus can’t be ignored.  Moreover, a sea level rise making millions’ homes uninhabitable is a humanitarian crisis regardless of etiology.

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Like 80% of our temp increases have been from minimum temps and not maximums. We see it in the record temps too...we still set record low maxes fairly regularly, but its much harder to set record low mins.

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