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TODAY: July 17th-18th - Storms/Severe/Flooding

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Dews must be compensating for the weak lapse rates. 1500-2000 J of MLCAPE with 25-30 knots of effective shear isn't too bad. 

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 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 516
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   200 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     Massachusetts
     New Jersey
     Southern New York
     Eastern Pennsylvania
     Rhode Island
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM
     until 1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to gradually increase in
   coverage and intensity through the afternoon. A moderately unstable
   environment and moderately strong belt of winds aloft will
   contribute to storm organization, including a couple of supercells
   and well-organized storm clusters. Damaging winds are the primary
   risk as storms spread generally east-southeastward through the
   afternoon/early evening.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
   statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest
   of Wilkesbarre PA to 5 miles south of New Bedford MA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 515...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   28020.

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VT/NH/MA and extreme N CT is in line for some hefty rainfall totals. Greatest severe threat should be with the initial discrete cells and probably moreso as the cores collapse. Evening commute going to be a disaster. 

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This has training written all over it ... 

someone's liable to get water-boarding 

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mm... shear isn't right .. .but who know - maybe terrain assisted.. 

That cell south of Barre appears to have split - interesting...    southern one might be interesting soon. 

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Seeing a meso near like Conway/Goshen with decent winds lower down... probably some whitetail in the DAR state forest ducking for cover.  The storm southwest of that though coming over the spine in Becket/ Chester looks like the one to watch for the valley, at least at this juncture.

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