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Chicago Storm

Mid-July Heat Wave

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I am playing in a golf outing Friday afternoon. Not often I drink anything other than beer on the course, but it is looking like a Gatorade day for sure. 

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From an anomaly standpoint, does this heat wave extreme compare to the Arctic Outbreak with had this past January??  It's a windchill vs. Heat Indices thing but I was curious to see what everyone else thinks??

Also, interesting to note that this heat wave will come and go in three days much like the Arctic Outbreak did.  Went from a high of -10's to a high of 58 in 3 days.   

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2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

From an anomaly standpoint, does this heat wave extreme compare to the Arctic Outbreak with had this past January??  It's a windchill vs. Heat Indices thing but I was curious to see what everyone else thinks??

Also, interesting to note that this heat wave will come and go in three days much like the Arctic Outbreak did.  Went from a high of -10's to a high of 58 in 3 days.   

Not even close! Actual air temps on the coldest day were over 40° below avg in spots. Actual air temps on the hottest day will be around 15° above avg. Friday will be dangerously hot, but its nothing places havent seen many times before, whereas the extent of the arctic blast was nearly unprecedented in spots.

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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Gonna go with 92/97/99/92 Wed-Sat for ORD.


.

If ORD gets 99'd :gun_bandana:

Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.  Guidance does indicate a pretty stout recovery even with convective concerns. 

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2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

From an anomaly standpoint, does this heat wave extreme compare to the Arctic Outbreak with had this past January??  It's a windchill vs. Heat Indices thing but I was curious to see what everyone else thinks??

Also, interesting to note that this heat wave will come and go in three days much like the Arctic Outbreak did.  Went from a high of -10's to a high of 58 in 3 days.   

First of all, you can't get the same level of crazy anomalies in summer like you can in winter.  Just not possible.  But even after accounting for that, the arctic outbreak was more impressive for the most part.  We can look at return rate, and the return rate for that would be longer than the return rate for the upcoming heat wave.  

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11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not even close! Actual air temps on the coldest day were over 40° below avg in spots. Actual air temps on the hottest day will be around 15° above avg. Friday will be dangerously hot, but its nothing places havent seen many times before, whereas the extent of the arctic blast was nearly unprecedented in spots.

Except it's literally impossible to get 40 degs above avg around here. What are averages in these locations Upper 80s? It would need to be 128 degs to have the same difference. The highest temp in history is 134. 

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48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If ORD gets 99'd :gun_bandana:

Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.  Guidance does indicate a pretty stout recovery even with convective concerns. 

I give it a very high chance of getting 99'd, especially with it usually being the cooler spot in the metro now.

I'm not as concerned as I once was for tomorrow, but still am for Saturday. 

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34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I give it a very high chance of getting 99'd, especially with it usually being the cooler spot in the metro now.

I'm not as concerned as I once was for tomorrow, but still am for Saturday. 

Yeah 99 is a real concern.  Progged 850 mb temps are a bit marginal for 100.  Hopefully a very warm start to Friday can help to compensate even just a little.  I noticed the 3 km NAM wants to bring some convection through Thursday night/early Friday, which would have some impact on the low temp/starting point on Friday.  Not a high probability scenario but something to keep in mind.

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LOT upgraded to warning for the vast majority of the cwa

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
214 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...

.A multiple day episode of dangerous heat is expected Thursday
through Saturday. There is a potential for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday morning that may keep Thursday cooler than
forecast, especially in the morning. However confidence is
increasing that dangerous heat will arrive later Thursday
afternoon and peak in intensity on Friday. Additionally, there
will be little relief from the heat overnight Thursday and Friday.
The urban heat island core of Chicago is most susceptible to
night time temperatures that do not cool significantly, limiting
the amount of relief that can occur at night.

ILZ010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-180315-
/O.UPG.KLOT.EH.A.0001.190718T1700Z-190721T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.EH.W.0001.190718T1700Z-190721T0000Z/
Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-
Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Lake-Porter-Newton-Jasper-
Benton-
Including the cities of Dixon, DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin,
Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard,
Carol Stream, Addison, Chicago, Humboldt Park, Hyde Park,
Lakeview, Lincoln Park, Logan Square, Navy Pier, Ottawa,
Streator, Peru, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego,
Boulder Hill, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka,
Joliet, Bolingbrook, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac,
Dwight, Fairbury, Watseka, Gilman, Onarga, Paxton, Gibson City,
Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso,
Chesterton, Roselawn, Kentland, Morocco, Goodland, Brook,
Rensselaer, DeMotte, Fowler, Otterbein, Oxford, and Boswell
214 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 /314 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT THURSDAY TO 7
PM CDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued an Excessive
Heat Warning, which is in effect from noon CDT Thursday to 7 PM
CDT Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect.

* HIGH TEMPERATURES...Peaking well into the 90s each day, with
  Friday and Saturday potentially in the upper 90s to near 100
  degrees.

* MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES...Peaking 104 to 114 each afternoon.

* LOW TEMPERATURES...Lows only in the upper 70s to near 80 on
  Thursday and Friday nights will offer little to no relief from
  the heat.

* IMPACTS...The cumulative effects of temperatures and heat
  index values this high could lead to heat related illnesses
  with prolonged exposure. Those without air conditioning,
  elderly, small children, and pets are especially susceptible.
  Plan ahead. Have a cool place to shelter from the heat. Avoid
  outdoor activity, especially strenuous ones, during the peak
  heating times of the day.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

My guess for DTW Wed-Sat

90 92 98 95

Cheater.... it's already 4:45 in Detroit.:P

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Cheater.... it's already 4:45 in Detroit.:P

Yes and it already hit 90 :D

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

92 ORD, 90 MDW and 94 here today.

I bet you will hit 100 even if Chicago doesn't. B)

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LOT now has 99/80 forecast for the high/low at ORD on Friday, which is very close to putting it in some elite company.  I mentioned there have been 8 days with a high of 100+ and low of 80+ for Chicago.  Here they are.

 

7/5/1911:  102, 82

7/27/1916:  100, 82

7/30/1916:  102, 84

8/6/1918:  101, 82

7/10/1936:  102, 80

7/13/1995:  104, 81

7/14/1995:  100, 83

7/6/2012:  103, 82

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If memory serves me correctly I think the 1995 heat wave happened in conditions that were much drier as far as precip up to the heat wave than what we have experienced this year.  Could be wrong in my thinking though.

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Last week, the euro was suggesting we could get a 9-day stretch of 90+, with a few days of 100 possible.  Here we are at Wednesday of the following week and we haven't even started the heat wave.  The Cedar Rapids airport has only hit 90º once, three days ago.  We should certainly reach the 90s the next three days.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I bet you will hit 100 even if Chicago doesn't. B)

That is definitely more likely given how things have gone. The DPA-MBY/06C-PWK area has been the warmer spot all season.

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11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Last week, the euro was suggesting we could get a 9-day stretch of 90+, with a few days of 100 possible.  Here we are at Wednesday of the following week and we haven't even started the heat wave.  The Cedar Rapids airport has only hit 90º once, three days ago.  We should certainly reach the 90s the next three days.

Seems like heat waves always end up a bit shorter than first advertised several days out.  Usually a day or two hacked off the front end, and the back end.

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20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Last week, the euro was suggesting we could get a 9-day stretch of 90+, with a few days of 100 possible.  Here we are at Wednesday of the following week and we haven't even started the heat wave.  The Cedar Rapids airport has only hit 90º once, three days ago.  We should certainly reach the 90s the next three days.

The biggest change from what was seen on guidance a few days ago is that there is no real ridge developing...instead we are seeing a more zonal flow.

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HRRR really puts a dent in highs tomorrow in northeast IL, due to convection lingering into the afternoon.

Storms look fairly likely to occur, so I think it's more a question of timing.  If it gets out during the morning, then it will have no trouble shooting into the 90s.  If they persist into afternoon, then all bets are off.

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HRRR really puts a dent in highs tomorrow in northeast IL, due to convection lingering into the afternoon.
Storms look fairly likely to occur, so I think it's more a question of timing.  If it gets out during the morning, then it will have no trouble shooting into the 90s.  If they persist into afternoon, then all bets are off.

All hi-res coming in has some sort of activity earlier in the day. The 3k NAM is the most extreme, and I’d guess overdone as well.

So we’re probably either going to have late recovery and barely hit 90...Or somehow most activity stays north and/or exits very early with mid-upper 90’s.


.

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Omaha still at 90 with a heat index of 99 as of 11pm.  Several sites along the I-80 corridor from western Iowa towards Grand Island NE had dews in the 80-83 degree range earlier this evening.  Surface moisture pooled nicely south of the east/west oriented boundary just north of that zone. 

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