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Ji

Is next winter looking like a disaster?

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11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The relationship between the NAO monthly values in May-April and Sept-Mar as a blend tends to be pretty predictive for what it will do in winter, going by the past 20 years. May-Apr and Sept-Mar last year was near identical to 1975 for the NAO, and then the NAO was positive, but not extremely so, like in 1975.

August -NAO also tends to precede cold Decembers in the East, if Nino 4 warmth (currently near record warmth) doesn't over-rule it (stronger correlation for Nino 4 the closer you get to Dec). Should be a very difficult winter to forecast actually. I lean toward the US being warm in December, with a patch of near average in the South from NC to AZ, but we'll see.

5aBdgLO.png

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

 

 

Curious if the May/April and Sept/March correlation is something you have taken note of or has there been a study on this? Also, if this relationship has only held for the last 20 years or so and not so much beyond that then I wonder if we are talking more so coincidence then an actual precursor to the winter NAO values. Sort of like Cohen's Siberian snow advance theory that worked well for a stretch and then went all to hell the last few years. If this is an actual study would love to read over the material if you could point the way.

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13 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You don't say...wonder how strong the correlation is? Hope it will have some meaning!

 

From what I understand from others there is a pretty strong correlation between the Newfoundland cold pool and the NAO. But of course I do recall over the years where this relationship has failed so though it may be a strong driver of the NAO values it is not the sole one and others come into play.

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14 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

What is the correlation between the We Suck Index and DJF snowfall and temperatures?

Oh stop--it's not even October yet...and this post is already in mid-winter form, smh Do you not realize that this is precisely the kind of post that drives the better posters away from here? Now I'm trying to do better this year--and I suggest you do the same...Last few winters were underwhelming overall, but we all know that...please stop.

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2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

What is the correlation between the We Suck Index and DJF snowfall and temperatures?

Yea well you know where you live. People have to be realistic. We have enough records going back long enough to know that the majority of our winters will be sub 20” in much of this forum.  And when we get a lucky run like 2014/2015/2016 we know we will pay the piper. The median snowfall for places around the cities isn’t likely going to suddenly jump from 15 to 25” like that.  So enjoy the 3 or so years each decade that we get flush hits and realize the rest of the time is likely going to suck. That’s our climo. 

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Or to put it another way...go back over the last 30 winters or so and be honest with yourself and determine how many would have left you satisfied by your current standards. If it’s way less than 50% then either your expectations have to change or your location. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea well you know where you live. People have to be realistic. We have enough records going back long enough to know that the majority of our winters will be sub 20” in much of this forum.  And when we get a lucky run like 2014/2015/2016 we know we will pay the piper. The median snowfall for places around the cities isn’t likely going to suddenly jump from 15 to 25” like that.  So enjoy the 3 or so years each decade that we get flush hits and realize the rest of the time is likely going to suck. That’s our climo. 

And if you must have snow, be prepared to chase. Luckily, places that average 90-120" are a 3-5 hour drive, depending on your location. And then there is the occasional odd beach blizzard chase.

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Lol.  You all are in mid winter form.

Policing rational thought and posts in a thread with this subtitle - much less started by JI-  is a little much dont you think?  Perhaps by looking at the calendar and seeing an 8 at the beginning of the date might be a clue that the post was in jest.;)

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59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

And if you must have snow, be prepared to chase. Luckily, places that average 90-120" are a 3-5 hour drive, depending on your location. And then there is the occasional odd beach blizzard :Dchase.

Actually, I can be there in 1:45.:P

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea well you know where you live. People have to be realistic. We have enough records going back long enough to know that the majority of our winters will be sub 20” in much of this forum.  And when we get a lucky run like 2014/2015/2016 we know we will pay the piper. The median snowfall for places around the cities isn’t likely going to suddenly jump from 15 to 25” like that.  So enjoy the 3 or so years each decade that we get flush hits and realize the rest of the time is likely going to suck. That’s our climo. 

That's the reality...@EastCoast NPZ I would also suggest you google "BWI snowfall" and download the PDF...you will see exactly what PSU is talking about. There is a pattern of ebbs and flows are throughout our history (with the exception of that truly epic run we went on all through the 60s were 18 inches was the MINIMUM we would get every year, lol BUT...if you look at what happened in the 70s? 7 consecutive winters without cracking the 20 inch mark--and only one of those even went above the median amount of 15"! So...it balanced out and we paid the piper, lol But no other decade in our history has ever looked quite like that!

 

5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Lol.  You all are in mid winter form.

Policing rational thought and posts in a thread with this subtitle - much less started by JI-  is a little much dont you think?  Perhaps by looking at the calendar and seeing an 8 at the beginning of the date might be a clue that the post was in jest.;)

Sir in all fairness...you made so many posts like that during the winter that it was difficult to tell whether you were joking or complaining this time! My apologies for not seeing your jest, lol

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's the reality...@EastCoast NPZ I would also suggest you google "BWI snowfall" and download the PDF...you will see exactly what PSU is talking about. There is a pattern of ebbs and flows are throughout our history (with the exception of that truly epic run we went on all through the 60s were 18 inches was the MINIMUM we would get every year, lol BUT...if you look at what happened in the 70s? 7 consecutive winters without cracking the 20 inch mark--and only one of those even went above the median amount of 15"! So...it balanced out and we paid the piper, lol But no other decade in our history has ever looked quite like that!

 

Sir in all fairness...you made so many posts like that during the winter that it was difficult to tell whether you were joking or complaining this time! My apologies for not seeing your jest, lol

And I will be making many more starting in 3 months.  You havent been here long have you. :lol:

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5 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

What is the correlation between the We Suck Index and DJF snowfall and temperatures?

You live in a desert. So I would expect the correlation between WSI and DJF snowfall and temperatures should be extremely high. :D

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45 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

@frd

Give this paper a read. Backs up your thoughts WRT lag albeit a bit more of a lag, as it pertains to solar. Plus what immediate effect could be. Thought you might find it interesting maybe others would too. 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.2782

@EasternLI

Got burned big time on this last year. Hate to even mention it but this is  a weather forum and it may be relevant to to the upcoming winter. Or maybe not .

Wondering outloud whether there is any relationship to the upcoming  NH Winter that we can get from looking at the SH Winter that is happening, or has happened. 

Of particular note is the PV and what is  happening down there. Although personally my desire is to have a great PAC and a negative AO here. 

Feeling good, along with some others, that we are cycling towards a rather significant -NAO winter in the next couple years. Could be delayed and impact winter 20-21 or maybe it is this year, winter 19-20 .    

This may be of interest :

 

 

 

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47 minutes ago, frd said:

Of particular note is the PV and what is  happening down there. Although personally my desire is to have a great PAC and a negative AO here. 

Feeling good, along with some others, that we are cycling towards a rather significant -NAO winter in the next couple years. Could be delayed and impact winter 20-21 or maybe it is this year, winter 19-20 .  

So...could we go back and look at which side of things we were on in 2009-10 and 1995-6?

Something that caught my attention last year when folks started talking about the minimum...When looking at a list of the yesrs each solar cycle over the last 100 years or so is estimated to have "started" and looking at the corresponding winters--the winters where we benefited from it were usually either just before or just after the estimated start of the cycle (now I could not, however  find any concrete dates that indicated where the minimum bottomed out--so I could only go off of the years where the next solar cycle started. (Also looked at some charts of solar activity...will post a couple of them in a second)


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3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And I will be making many more starting in 3 months.  You havent been here long have you. :lol:

He is still no doubt bitter from last winter. Can't blame him........ah  the weather is the weather and many times is simply too complex to predict. But indeed,  there have been very long time periods in the past where winters were horrible in terms of snowfall. We have been spoiled since 2000.   

We will get another HECS , however patience is required.  

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...could we go back and look at which side of things we were on in 2009-10 and 1995-6?

Something that caught my attention last year when folks started talking about the minimum...When looking at a list of the yesrs each solar cycle over the last 100 years or so is estimated to have "started" and looking at the corresponding winters--the winters where we benefited from it were usually either just before or just after the estimated start of the cycle (now I could not, however  find any concrete dates that indicated where the minimum bottomed out--so I could only go off of the years where the next solar cycle started. (Also looked at some charts of solar activity...will post a couple of them in a second)

 

I suggest you read that article that @EasternLIposted it is very interesting . Just finished reading it myself. Seems after for the -NAO is backed up even though the time period is not that long . As for the AO the article really focused on the NAO domain. 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

He is still no doubt bitter from last winter. Can't blame him........ah  the weather is the weather and many times is simply too complex to predict. But indeed,  there have been very long time periods in the past where winters were horrible in terms of snowfall. We have been spoiled since 2000.   

We will get another HECS , however patience is required.  

No, no, not bitter (really more like lessons learned, lol)...but just...I know several good posters have been chased away from here because some of the crap we see in here. So when I see somebody doing the very thing that probably chased folks away, it's kinda frustrating. I'm resolved to do better myself...just want folks to do the same!

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

I suggest you read that article that @EasternLIposted it is very interesting . Just finished reading it myself. Seems after for the -NAO is backed up even though the time period is not that long . As for the AO the article really focused on the NAO domain. 

I just skimmed through ut...got lost in some of the jargon though. (not well studied in meteorology, lol Perhaps if I could see a particular example of a winter where this applied) When it kept saying 3-4 years...was it saying that was the lag from the solar maximum or minimum?

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11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I just skimmed through ut...got lost in some of the jargon though. (not well studied in meteorology, lol Perhaps if I could see a particular example of a winter where this applied) When it kept saying 3-4 years...was it saying that was the lag from the solar maximum or minimum?

Did you read the bottom that bascially is summary :

Believe from the minimum and some things happen almost in real time as you get solar forcing  ( not cause and effect but implied by observation the article mentions ) 

 

see here 

The analysis confirmed previous results of Woollings et al. (2010) that showed increased DJF blocking frequency around periods of solar minimum, although these results should be treated with caution since the analysed data span only 58 years.

 

The maximum response (with 99% statistical significance; see Figure 8(b)) was found to occur over Iceland at 1‐year lag, i.e. it does not display the 3–4 year lag seen in the SLP results. The DJF‐averaged response was found to come primarily from the late‐winter (JF) response, with no statistically significant influence seen in December.

This suggests that the early‐winter influence on the NAO via ocean feedbacks described above, which presumably influence the storm track, has little influence on the frequency of blocking.

The late‐winter influence lends support to earlier studies that suggest a stratosphere–blocking interaction (Woollings et al., 2010) since the stratosphere also responds to solar forcing almost immediately (Gray et al., 2013; Mitchell et al., 2015).

However, we note that such short response lags (and the additional uncertainty in lag‐times introduced by uncertainty in which solar index is best employed) mean that it is not possible to categorically distinguish cause from effect using only observational data.

While the late‐winter surface signal in SLP and blocking may be a response to top‐down stratospheric forcing, it is also possible that the stratosphere could simply be responding to the change in blocking frequency caused by some other influence mechanism, since blocking events are associated with increased wave propagation into the stratosphere and have been identified as precursors to disturbances of the stratospheric vortex in winter. Well‐designed model experiments are needed to clarify this.

 

 

 

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As I mentioned weeks ago there are some things happening that may favor a good winter and maybe not even an overall warm Fall. 

I came across this today by HM :

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

@EasternLI

Got burned big time on this last year. Hate to even mention it but this is  a weather forum and it may be relevant to to the upcoming winter. Or maybe not .

Wondering outloud whether there is any relationship to the upcoming  NH Winter that we can get from looking at the SH Winter that is happening, or has happened. 

Of particular note is the PV and what is  happening down there. Although personally my desire is to have a great PAC and a negative AO here. 

Feeling good, along with some others, that we are cycling towards a rather significant -NAO winter in the next couple years. Could be delayed and impact winter 20-21 or maybe it is this year, winter 19-20 .    

This may be of interest :

 

 

 

Yeah, I've noticed what is going on down there and I've been interested in seeing if there is any connection. I did find it interesting that there aren't many examples in the modern record of southern hemisphere ssw. I've been looking for paperwork on the subject but it seems to be a topic of current/future research. I did find an article that goes into a relationship. However it seems the relationship only pertains to October and February for the southern hemisphere to northern hemisphere connection. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081002

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11 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Lol.  You all are in mid winter form.

Policing rational thought and posts in a thread with this subtitle - much less started by JI-  is a little much dont you think?  Perhaps by looking at the calendar and seeing an 8 at the beginning of the date might be a clue that the post was in jest.;)

No one is policing your posts. But people are free to respond to your posts and dissent.  You can expect anything you want!  Im just pointing out the reality of our climo. 

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21 hours ago, frd said:

As I mentioned weeks ago there are some things happening that may favor a good winter and maybe not even an overall warm Fall. 

I came across this today by HM :

 

 

I assume he is mostly referring to the ENSO. Even though it is officially neutral, and expected to remain so for fall and winter, there may be some residual atmospheric Nino-like effects. I am keeping an eye on the QBO. Be interesting to see where August ends up. Looks like a steady move towards neutral currently. Even if it doesn't go negative, a positive QBO becoming less positive as we head into the winter months correlates to at least somewhat colder in the east. That plus near solar minimum certainly would be a net positive. Ofc we also have Cohen's hocus pocus to look forward to as another possible clue about the winter AO state.

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On 8/25/2019 at 2:45 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

I assume he is mostly referring to the ENSO. Even though it is officially neutral, and expected to remain so for fall and winter, there may be some residual atmospheric Nino-like effects. I am keeping an eye on the QBO. Be interesting to see where August ends up. Looks like a steady move towards neutral currently. Even if it doesn't go negative, a positive QBO becoming less positive as we head into the winter months correlates to at least somewhat colder in the east. That plus near solar minimum certainly would be a net positive. Ofc we also have Cohen's hocus pocus to look forward to as another possible clue about the winter AO state.

Yep, he is, the walker cell and the Nino and Nina effects were mentioned by him. Seems like a combo that could yield an earlier winter setting in and a colder Nov and Dec than many envision although he did say we need to wait a month to see how things go. 

I see a change in the IO as well.  Need to see who posted that, it might have been bluewave.

The SST NH configuration does look rather interesting at this time. 

 

 

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from bluewave, very interesting 

 

<<<

The IOD just rose above +1 for the first time since 2015. So there are currently cooler SST departures near Indonesia. Be interesting to see if some semblance of this pattern lingers into winter and can result in less Maritime Continent MJO forcing. But the warmth near and west of the dateline has been associated with a more active MJO in general. Also the very strong +NPM with near record SST warmth from just off the equator and northward. 

950404DF-7CC6-4EF1-BF53-BD67D6787289.png.fdfb9f0a36d4704f71c8658d3a73aafd.png

B76E8FFD-B218-4C36-9003-62750A1F194C.png.de93765420949610c8000a9ae971fd26.png

>>>>

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36 minutes ago, frd said:

This is pretty cool and thought provoking.

 

 

 

No... no thanks... too late to be reading all that... no thank you... no.

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