Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Ji

Is next winter looking like a disaster?

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

I remember like yesterday the great WPVI tv 6  weatherman Jim O'Brien talking about this event ..... was a biggie indeed  , not sure if this was one that stalled and or did a looped , but the satelite images were classic even for way back then. 

 

 

 

It did some of both.  Looped south of Long Island  and stalled for a while.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah the only BIG events I recall when I was living in Carroll County were the Feb 1979 storm(PD I) and the Feb 1983 storm. Lost plenty of brain cells since then, but those clearly stand out. Looks like some of the biggest events in recent times occured in my present location before I moved here lol.


The blizzard of 83 was the first big storm that I remember. 7 years old and the snow seemed like it was up to my neck. Not in reality but that’s the way I remember it. After that storm I was hooked...snow was better when all you had was bob ryan and a noaa weather radio. You didn’t know the winter sucked until it was spring...
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the only BIG events I recall when I was living in Carroll County were the Feb 1979 storm(PD I) and the Feb 1983 storm. Lost plenty of brain cells since then, but those clearly stand out. Looks like some of the biggest events in recent times occured in my present location before I moved here lol.

Have a sneaky suspicion that the 78 storm was one that I was kind of pissed off at because others not too far away were getting double if not triple my totals.  Might explain why I don't remember it because I have blocked it out of my memory. :lol:

I missed out on the 83 storm up here. Was down at Georgia Tech for that one. Wasn't a total wash though as they did see a couple inches and had a good time playing sandlot football in their stadium in the snow.

eta: Speaking of storms that I missed out on. The Storm of the Century in 93 was one. Lived in California at the time and remember watching the weather channel nonstop for almost a week following it. Seriously considered flying back the day before when it was looking like a sure thing. I cringe to this day when people start discussing it on these boards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Have a sneaky suspicion that the 78 storm was one that I was kind of pissed off at because others not too far away were getting double if not triple my totals.  Might explain why I don't remember it because I have blocked it out of my memory. :lol:

I missed out on the 83 storm up here. Was down at Georgia Tech for that one. Wasn't a total wash though as they did see a couple inches and had a good time playing sandlot football in their stadium in the snow.

eta: Speaking of storms that I missed out on. The Storm of the Century in 93 was one. Lived in California at the time and remember watching the weather channel nonstop for almost a week following it. Seriously considered flying back the day before when it was looking like a sure thing. I cringe to this day when people start discussing it on these boards.

That one was forgettable here lol. I appreciated it for the historic nature, but the track was too far west and it turned to 40 degree rain after 7-8" of heavy wet snow. Dry slotted after that. What was left froze and left an iceberg for a day or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/13/2019 at 11:18 AM, showmethesnow said:

And here I thought you were going to Mehhhh... it. :D

Don't remember that one at all. Looking at the snowfall maps it looks as if Owings Mills got maybe 8-10 inches which was probably somewhat exciting at the time but it wasn't near the slap in the face that 79 was. Funny what you remember though. Remember one year (sometime in the mid 70's) mother took me out to visit one of her friends in Randalstown. Had a snow squall roll through for maybe a half hour or so that dropped snowflakes easily the size of golf balls and laid down 4-5 inches of extremely fluffy snow. For years afterward when they mentioned the chance of squalls I would get excited. Took me a while to realize that what I had experienced was actually pretty rare down in the low lands. 

Did I forget to mention that it was an early B-Day present? 

Nope, I love legit winter storms especially ones that surprise everyone. Just like 1/25/2000...it's a shame that with better forecasting accuracy these are quickly becoming a thing of the past :(

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nope, I love legit winter storms especially ones that surprise everyone. Just like 1/25/2000...it's a shame that with better forecasting accuracy these are quickly becoming a thing of the past :(

The 2000 storm was a fun one. Remember hearing how we wouldn't see another storm sneak up on us like the 79 one due to advances with the modeling and yet...

Was watching that storm on the radar throughout the evening thinking that it was coming up the coast and yet the Mets were insisting that it would turn and head OTS. Finally on the 11pm news they caved but even then I think they were still talking a glancing blow. As they say, the rest is history. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The 2000 storm was a fun one. Remember hearing how we wouldn't see another storm sneak up on us like the 79 one due to advances with the modeling and yet...

Was watching that storm on the radar throughout the evening thinking that it was coming up the coast and yet the Mets were insisting that it would turn and head OTS. Finally on the 11pm news they caved but even then I think they were still talking a glancing blow. As they say, the rest is history. 

I think with the advances of short term guidance I really think the days of a big storm totally sneaking up on us are just about over.  Just IMO, the 2000 and 2011 events were back before we really made the leap on the HRRR, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's funny. We push for advancements so we can have a better idea of what's coming, but it takes away the element of surprise, at least major surprises, which can be fun in their own right. Obviously it's better for society as a whole because it's better to be as prepared as you can be for potentially dangerous conditions. I guess the bright side for people like us is that no matter how advanced forecasting becomes, weather will always have it's surprises. I do agree though that the days of predicting nothing and then getting hammered with a big storm are well behind us. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Steve25 said:

It's funny. We push for advancements so we can have a better idea of what's coming, but it takes away the element of surprise, at least major surprises, which can be fun in their own right. Obviously it's better for society as a whole because it's better to be as prepared as you can be for potentially dangerous conditions. I guess the bright side for people like us is that no matter how advanced forecasting becomes, weather will always have it's surprises. I do agree though that the days of predicting nothing and then getting hammered with a big storm are well behind us. 

Yup there's nothing better than going to bed expecting nothing and then you get awoken by that early brightening of the skies and looking out to see everything covered with a surprise 5" of snow.  Then you go downstairs, flip on the NOAA Weather Radio and hear those three amazing words "Winter Storm Warning".  You get excited as the message reads out on the automated voice with words like "through late tonight" and "drifts exceeding two feet".  Those are amazing events.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup there's nothing better than going to bed expecting nothing and then you get awoken by that early brightening of the skies and looking out to see everything covered with a surprise 5" of snow.  Then you go downstairs, flip on the NOAA Weather Radio and hear those three amazing words "Winter Storm Warning".  You get excited as the message reads out on the automated voice with words like "through late tonight" and "drifts exceeding two feet".  Those are amazing events.

when did that happen?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ger said:

when did that happen?

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

It kinda happened this past december, on the 9th-10th storm. The news stations were predicting only an inch or two, but we ended up getting 10+. This is BEFORE CHRISTMAS in Central VA, so of course while you’re trying to tell people, you get the usual “The ground is too warm” reply barked back at you from anyone who doesn’t know too much about WX.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

Jan 25 2000?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/13/2019 at 12:37 PM, Steve25 said:

Well, historically, my area has only had 3 periods where we went more than 3 full winters without a 10+ inch snow month. 1948/49-1952/53, 1967/68-1970/71, and 1972/73-1976/77. That's over 136 years of record keeping. So I'd say odds are in favor of at least one decent month for snow this winter. 

By that logic, you'd think we'd be due! (I know that phrase drives @psuhoffman crazy.. but...to me, history does have some credence. I mean, that's not to say it COULDN'T happen this year...but just that it seems to be somewhat rare)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

By that logic, you'd think we'd be due! (I know that phrase drives @psuhoffman crazy.. but...to me, history does have some credence. I mean, that's not to say it COULDN'T happen this year...but just that it seems to be somewhat rare)

History does have credence. Except what history shows is that going into every winter the odds of having above average snowfall in our area is the same (about 30%) regardless of what happened the year before.   The odds of stringing too many below avg years together us low of course simply because of coumpounding odds each year (like the odds of getting 10 heads in a row tossing a coin). But no matter how many heads in a row you’ve had the odds on that next toss are still 50/50. History shows it’s the same principle for snowfall here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

By that logic, you'd think we'd be due! (I know that phrase drives @psuhoffman crazy.. but...to me, history does have some credence. I mean, that's not to say it COULDN'T happen this year...but just that it seems to be somewhat rare)

Also 2017-18 was actually a snowy winter all around us. We were unlucky in a very meso scale way with a lot of close misses. From a pattern sense I don’t think counting that as a bad winter would be accurate.  And if that hadn’t had as much bad luck we would have had above avg snow 4 of the last 6 years.  Even so we have had above avg 3 of the last 6. And 2 of the other 3 were very close to avg not duds at all by our standards.  Considering we only typically get above avg snow 30% of the time and we get a total crap dud winter about 30% the we’re due index isn’t as good as you think imo.  If anything we are due for a total crap dud virtually snowless winter. 

Luckily as I pointed out above the we’re due index is nonsense so this is irrelevant...just saying if it were a real thing we still aren’t close to being due a snowy winter based on historical trends and averages.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

lol that was my thought too. “This isn’t a thing that ever happened in the midAtlantic”

Lol yea!  I could still see a major positive bust happen if we were ever on the back edge of a miller b that ended up bombing just west of projections. Those sharp back edges where snowfall can go from nothing to a foot very quickly is still hard to pin down by nwp. It’s still possible (just unlikely) for us to be predicted just outside that sharp cutoff and see it end up west of us kind of like a reverse December 2000 or 2010. Unfortunately those setups shift east at the last minute way more often than west but I think it’s still possible. That’s about the only scenario where I could see nwp totally missing a big time snowfall from very close range anymore. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

 

I don't hate the look in the EPAC and around AK for Dec and Jan. If we don't get much cooperation from the AO/NAO, we are gonna need a generally favorable PAC for a chance at a decent winter around here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't hate the look in the EPAC and around AK for Dec and Jan. If we don't get much cooperation from the AO/NAO, we are gonna need a generally favorable PAC for a chance at a decent winter around here. 

There are some indications via the UkMet and ECM long range seasonal SST forecasts that there may be an enhanced Pacific jet similiar to what we had last year that always either prevented , or shortned the duration of any West Coast or NW Canadian ridging.  The High pressure location in the Pac near Hawaii also messed up things last year by encouraging the WAR.   

Without something to slow or buckle the jet combined with a AO and NAO blocking (  a - AO being the first desired if significant,  followed by the

- NAO we will not have a good winter at all IMHO ) 

I take some relief that the seasonal models do not show any significant - NAO at this time because last year up to the very end they forecasted it and never materialized;  so maybe this year without it portrayed  in the long range seasonal guidence it will be a good thing and they will be wrong and we do get periods of blocking to help us here in the Mid Atlantic .

For the record I rather have an awesone Pac and I dont care what the Atlantic side does .  

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, frd said:

The decline continues 

 

So now....the last time, the low solar in 2008 did nothing for the 2008-09 winter, but yet it helped make the 2009-10 epic? So I'm wondering if right now if we are on the first "year" of the minimum (i.e. 2008) or the second year (i.e. 2009) that had a good winter on the back half of the minimum (and looking back in history, it seems that, with the minimums that surrounded a great winter, the great winter would usually happen on the first part of the minimum or the second (if that makes any sense, lol)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Also 2017-18 was actually a snowy winter all around us. We were unlucky in a very meso scale way with a lot of close misses. 

Now I assumed that close misses like that happen in most of our La ninas...Isn't the 2017-18 scenario one of the main causes of La nina suckage throughout our history? (Due to things in the NS being interruptions and such?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12/8/2013 from Harpers Ferry, WV to Philly.

 

I argue the Ravens-Vikings game that day was just as crazy (but more so in the last 4 minutes, lol) Never seen one end quite like that one!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I argue the Ravens-Vikings game that day was just as crazy (but more so in the last 4 minutes, lol) Never seen one end quite like that one!!

Yeah, the Philly game has more snow, but Vikes-Ravens had the insanity.  Just sad that Baltimore had the ball last.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Another long range winter model-  conclusion:  too early to tell anything. But here it is

 

Great December look but I would be curious what the rest of the months show (Nov-March). Not sure the CANSIPS has been updated on Tropical Tidbits though the above matches what TT is now showing.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/16/2019 at 6:42 PM, Rhino16 said:

It kinda happened this past december, on the 9th-10th storm. The news stations were predicting only an inch or two, but we ended up getting 10+. This is BEFORE CHRISTMAS in Central VA, so of course while you’re trying to tell people, you get the usual “The ground is too warm” reply barked back at you from anyone who doesn’t know too much about WX.

Same here. Getting ready for work calling for 3-5, they (NWS) upped it on forecast to 6-10 as I left the house at 7 am. Got home that night (after an hour + drive that normally is 10 minutes) after 8 pm to 20.5"!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×