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Is next winter looking like a disaster?

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Ponder this, a weak Nino maybe in early 2020 

 

 

Nooooooo...Keep that weak Niño outta here! Hope we can keep this neutral! (Lest we suffer another 15-18" sporadic winter...better than nothing, but still) 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Beware of years like last year,  where the consensus and group think were proven wrong, machines included.  

Ohh trust me, I am...From here on, I'd much rather look at history. Because last year had two simple historical red flags that proved true:

1) The extremely wet year. Top 5 wet years were all followed by mediocre snowfall winters

2) The Weak El Niño. I'm wondering if the historical numbers that we see in previous weak niños...were all because of the nino getting pushed around by other factors due to it not coupling to the atmosphere

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nooooooo...Keep that weak Niño outta here! Hope we can keep this neutral! (Lest we suffer another 15-18" sporadic winter...better than nothing, but still) 

Had last years Nino behaved like a real Nino not a Nina we would have gotten a lot more snow . 

A very strange Nino as well, one without the normal +PNA.   We averaged a -PNA .  We might as well had a Nina.

Meanwhile the IOD is the most positive in years and the SOI continues its dive.   Wonder whether typical Nino characteristics continue into the Fall.  

 

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18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nooooooo...Keep that weak Niño outta here! Hope we can keep this neutral! (Lest we suffer another 15-18" sporadic winter...better than nothing, but still) 

Last year was atypical af. Poorly defined/ late developing Nino + overactive MJO. Throw it out.

Weak Nino isn't always good here- they can downright suck. Its all relative tho. I will take a warm neutral/atmosphere behaving more Ninoi-ish any day over a weak Nina.

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This is more of a gut instinct than anything else, but I think with sufficient sample size and no background climate forcing change, our winters would be snowier with increasing positive ENSO until you reach super nino where it’s probably a bit of a wildcard based on temps. So weak nino should be better than neutral or any Nina. Again, just a gut feeling.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This is more of a gut instinct than anything else, but I think with sufficient sample size and no background climate forcing change, our winters would be snowier with increasing positive ENSO until you reach super nino where it’s probably a bit of a wildcard based on temps. So weak nino should be better than neutral or any Nina. Again, just a gut feeling.

That makes sense and I agree. Other variables skew a small sample but when I sorted winters by enso last year with the exception of a few blockbuster neutrals skewing neutral enso state upward what you described is pretty evident in the overall means. 

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Why am I always the last to find out about these things. Now I am at a loss at what to get her. How about Elvis, is he still around?

 

41 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Actually yes....yes he is

I think he has been secretly living somewhere in the Bahamas all these years. That may not have worked out so well.

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Actually yes....yes he is

Some people wait to see Geese flying over their heads heading south to know that winter is just around the corner. But not I, I wait for you to come out of hibernation. Once I see that I know we are good to go. Nice to have you back. 

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KA has retired from the long range forecasts. Other than Matt Ross nobody had a lengthy track record like that, approaching 70% and to my record keeping since 1980 there were just 4 times where he missed on both snowfall and temps with 22 double hits and just the four mentioned double misses.

i will be still doing mine and I’m about 62/63% but not as good as he or Matt.

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Here's something you don't see everyday. A hurricane wedged between two very deep cutoffs (534 mb, 537 mb) blocked underneath some impressive height builds in Canada. Omen for this winter? :o

Omen.gif.36889746c84dd63e5b02de01c75f818a.gif

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Here's something you don't see everyday. A hurricane wedged between two very deep cutoffs (534 mb, 537 mb) blocked underneath some impressive height builds in Canada. Omen for this winter? :o

Omen.gif.36889746c84dd63e5b02de01c75f818a.gif

Meteorological impossibility?

If it is possible, that look in January might have just resulted in a blizzard for Jacksonville.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Meteorological impossibility?

If it is possible, that look in January might have just resulted in a blizzard for Jacksonville.

The  weather showing a clue maybe.......  certainly in the realm of possibilities and no reason why can not cycle back into a -NAO cycle in the winter. 

I will not believe the seasonal models, but I feel the winter does indeed have potential.

Also, keying on the potential of some sort of rapid shift to cold and snow sooner than many would anticipate.   

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33 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

KA has retired from the long range forecasts. Other than Matt Ross nobody had a lengthy track record like that, approaching 70% and to my record keeping since 1980 there were just 4 times where he missed on both snowfall and temps with 22 double hits and just the four mentioned double misses.

i will be still doing mine and I’m about 62/63% but not as good as he or Matt.

 

KA was one of the few in the already small long range community who produced consistent results. I did not initiate my long range forecasting career as early as you, KA, or Matt. However, I began in 2006, and have a 80.0% success rate [including summer/winter outlooks, 25 outlooks total sample size]. As per usual, I intend to issue a winter outlook again this autumn. Will look forward to reading yours.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

The El Nino theme continues 

 

 

 

 

I am not sure precisely what is included in this index; however, while it may be a fine proxy for ENSO specifically, I do not believe it adequately considers other pertinent variables, such as the GWO and associated torque variations, which would provide a more veracious macroscale view in my opinion. At several points on that graph in which neutral or Nino is depicted, other indicators such as GWO cycling and tropical forcing ostensibly indicated a Nina esque atmospheric regime. Again, it may be fine for the purposes which it is designed for, but I personally would not rely upon it as the most accurate indicator of the macroscale atmospheric status.

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20 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I am not sure precisely what is included in this index; however, while it may be a fine proxy for ENSO specifically, I do not believe it adequately considers other pertinent variables, such as the GWO and associated torque variations, which would provide a more veracious macroscale view in my opinion. At several points on that graph in which neutral or Nino is depicted, other indicators such as GWO cycling and tropical forcing ostensibly indicated a Nina esque atmospheric regime. Again, it may be fine for the purposes which it is designed for, but I personally would not rely upon it as the most accurate indicator of the macroscale atmospheric status.

The atmosphere at least seems more Nino vs Nina, but general support for either could be made I imagine. The summer at 500 looks like a typical Nino, as bluewave had posted that in the NYC thread a couple weeks ago. The current SOI is and has been negative, and the IOD is the most positive in years, but as you mentioned other related indicators are more Nina esque.

When I read a post by HM a few weeks ago I  felt he almost seemed to suggest that the upcoming winter may bring a combo of Nino and Nina like forcing. Each exerting its influences in various Pacific drivers. The walker cell will be very interesting as will be the BDC, not to mention the amplitude of the MJO. As you posted at 33andrain recently, it will also be of interest to see any effects in the tropics from the recent SH SSWE.  Seems there are implications in the NH from significant SH weather events.   

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

KA was one of the few in the already small long range community who produced consistent results. I did not initiate my long range forecasting career as early as you, KA, or Matt. However, I began in 2006, and have a 80.0% success rate [including summer/winter outlooks, 25 outlooks total sample size]. As per usual, I intend to issue a winter outlook again this autumn. Will look forward to reading yours.

Yeah I think you are next in line behind Matt and Keith but very close and your stats suggest even better. I know I always value yours and look forward to it.

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34 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

I am not sure precisely what is included in this index; however, while it may be a fine proxy for ENSO specifically, I do not believe it adequately considers other pertinent variables, such as the GWO and associated torque variations, which would provide a more veracious macroscale view in my opinion. At several points on that graph in which neutral or Nino is depicted, other indicators such as GWO cycling and tropical forcing ostensibly indicated a Nina esque atmospheric regime. Again, it may be fine for the purposes which it is designed for, but I personally would not rely upon it as the most accurate indicator of the macroscale atmospheric status.

I think the ENSO results are Not as “in stone” determinant as we thought back 2003-2013. You had people swearing  and livid that analogs could not be used because a referenced year was a weak Nina and the upcoming year looked to be weak Nino. I don’t know and I don’t think anybody really does what is the deciding factor. I do know that for the DC area if the cold air does not set up almost perfectly then snow is hard to come by but what controls and dictates that is up to debate and discovery.

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@C.A.P.E.this I was unaware of, each model has its own bias when it comes to the forecasts of the early PV .

Some go strong and cold , others weak and not as cold. 

Also,  each model has inherent noise and this needs to be taken into account as well.

 

 

 

   

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58 minutes ago, frd said:

@C.A.P.E.this I was unaware of, each model has its own bias when it comes to the forecasts of the early PV .

Some go strong and cold , others weak and not as cold. 

Also,  each model has inherent noise and this needs to be taken into account as well.

 

 

 

   

Yeah I always take these 'advertised features' on the LR models for what it is- pretty much a flip of the coin. The solar cycle/geomagnetic activity, QBO trends, and yes I suppose the SAI are all individual indices to monitor during fall for early indications of the winter AO state.

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42 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Pretty major +NAO, evolving to -PNA in a few days. Signing toward a jet stream 300 miles north this Winte rimo

Will be interesting to see if we can buckle or slow the Pac jet this Winter and late Fall. Last winter several records were broken in regards to the West to East jet stream  speed.  Even happened in the spring as well.  

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