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Is next winter looking like a disaster?


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14 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

when do the Siberian snow cover and ground temp depth maps start to appear? asking for my cousin Bertha

The soil feels hot. Not sure it can cool properly given how wet, er, dry it is. Snow will likely have a difficult time sticking this winter. If it actually snows, that is.

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Looking at medium/long range models, it's really hard for a +PNA to form. Skewed toward -PDO, like we've seen 2014-2019 in the long wavelength season. The Aleutian High becomes a block in about September and the same is holding true this year. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

I mention this because we had +PNA all year up until about 7-10 days ago. This -PDO is a pattern that will hold. 

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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Look at the advertised lack of snow for the far west lol. California in trouble.

The San Diego snow weenies are in trouble!  Jokes aside...on the macro level the propensity for everything to skew warm is troubling. Of course at the micro level it doesn’t mean much. We just need a couple good weeks to skew cold and time it up with a few storms to “win”. But seeing red dominate so often isn’t something I feel good about. 

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On 9/15/2019 at 1:06 PM, psuhoffman said:

The San Diego snow weenies are in trouble!  Jokes aside...on the macro level the propensity for everything to skew warm is troubling. Of course at the micro level it doesn’t mean much. We just need a couple good weeks to skew cold and time it up with a few storms to “win”. But seeing red dominate so often isn’t something I feel good about. 

It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year.

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40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year.

You'd always see this ENSO configuration in a generally warm Earth because of land/mountain torque.. Any warmer and it's biased El Nino (Nino 1.2 and 3 are cold). 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year.

What caused the MJO to overwhelm last year?

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1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

What caused the MJO to overwhelm last year?

It overwhelmed because the Nino was a late developing, weak, diffuse, POS lol. That's one explanation. As for why the MJO was persistently strong/active, hard to say with certainty. I am no expert but warmer SSTs and enhanced tropical forcing/convection in specific areas of the tropics could act to "interfere" with/suppress activity in the ENSO region. You could also look upstairs over the tropics. QBO phase maybe? 

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@frd

You see this? Pretty good read. He is way above my level but these indices are what I have been focused on along with the PDO. I think early indications are good.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html

 

A relaxed flow would be nice...because my goodness last winter was a freeway! (with the SE ridge being a jerk in the road) We were hearing the term "progressive" all winter!

(P.S. My snow weenism doesn't like analogs...even if they don't mean much. When I see articles like this list a bunch of years that didn't produce much, I go "ick!" But again, doesn't mean much this early, I suppose)

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@frd

You see this? Pretty good read. He is way above my level but these indices are what I have been focused on along with the PDO. I think early indications are good.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html

 

Yes, nice read ( his break down is very detailed ) and the QBO is favoring us, as others have said as well, including Mitchnick as well. 

Wonder if the winter comes on like a rubber band snapping back, with a sudden change to cold. Seems Ray implies at the end of his outlook a colder and drier scenario, but mentions above normal precip along the East Coast.     

If anything seems that the SH may provide a clue as well. And for us here in the NH as we get deeper into the cold season wonder about the effects on our PV from various factors.  

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Lol Yeah I just asked about NBC because of the timing of his post (it was less than 20 mins after it aired)

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8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Adding nothing to the conversation except for a neat looking volcanic eruption. Don't know how these events effect winters over here. 

 

From what little I learned a couple years ago about volcanos...the eruption has to be pretty substantial to impact anything globally (the larger the eruption the higher the higher the ash gets into the air). I believe the last one strong enough for that was Pinatubo in 1991 (I think that ended up kinda robbing us of the effects of a mod Niño according to someone on here).

There have been, of course, other climate-impacting eruptions in modern history. The most impactful was the eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815...It led to infamous "year without a summer" (and Frankenstein and the poem "Darkness" was inspired as a result, lol). There's a high death toll associated with it that volcano due to the famine that caused by summer essentially getting cancelled the next year. That was probably the most impactful eruption in modern history.

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