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Is next winter looking like a disaster?


Ji
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6 hours ago, frd said:

from bluewave, very interesting 

 

<<<

The IOD just rose above +1 for the first time since 2015. So there are currently cooler SST departures near Indonesia. Be interesting to see if some semblance of this pattern lingers into winter and can result in less Maritime Continent MJO forcing. But the warmth near and west of the dateline has been associated with a more active MJO in general. Also the very strong +NPM with near record SST warmth from just off the equator and northward. 

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>>>>

Some speculated that the pacific being on fire muted the nino because of a lack of gradient. If that is true...with the rest of the pacific still a raging sst inferno if we do get even a slightly cool neutral to weak Niña look might that behave like a super Niña due to the extreme gradient?  

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some speculated that the pacific being on fire muted the nino because of a lack of gradient. If that is true...with the rest of the pacific still a raging sst inferno if we do get even a slightly cool neutral to weak Niña look might that behave like a super Niña due to the extreme gradient?  

And what would that look like if we were to finally get a -NAO again? (Now having a super nina spoil low solar and possible -nao would be a poke in the eye, lol)

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Some speculated that the pacific being on fire muted the nino because of a lack of gradient. If that is true...with the rest of the pacific still a raging sst inferno if we do get even a slightly cool neutral to weak Niña look might that behave like a super Niña due to the extreme gradient?  

This brings up my thoughts that not only do placement of anomalies play a part in driving the pattern but also the magnitude of contrasts we see with SSTs in surrounding regions. Have a feeling that this plays a huge part as well. After all contrasts and their magnitude are what ultimately drive the weather. Every year at around this time I start to consider looking back over prior year's SSTs (actually the last couple of weeks I have started to consider this very thing) to see if there may be an actual relationship with contrasts/or lack thereof and how they may possibly impact ENSO forcings as well as maybe WPO/EPO/PNA. Just seems like a daunting task as well as very time consuming. Let alone the data set to pull from is probably much too small to get a clear idea if a relationship actually may exist. 

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16 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

This brings up my thoughts that not only do placement of anomalies play a part in driving the pattern but also the magnitude of contrasts we see with SSTs in surrounding regions. Have a feeling that this plays a huge part as well. After all contrasts and their magnitude are what ultimately drive the weather. Every year at around this time I start to consider looking back over prior year's SSTs (actually the last couple of weeks I have started to consider this very thing) to see if there may be an actual relationship with contrasts/or lack thereof and how they may possibly impact ENSO forcings as well as maybe WPO/EPO/PNA. Just seems like a daunting task as well as very time consuming. Let alone the data set to pull from is probably much too small to get a clear idea if a relationship actually may exist. 

You are correct it was Tip from the New England that suggested there was so much warm water in the Pac and a general lack of a gradient or I imagine he means forcing possibly.

The lack of coupling between ocean and atmosphere caused the desired Nino outcomes to never occur. Not to mention the Nino was very weak.  

The red flag should have been the Dec + SOI 

Some even mentioned the waters in the IO, East of Japan and near Aussie as concerns  and the High pressure system I think North of Hawaii caused issues too. 

The raging Pac jet set records last winter, as did the high MJO amp including records for for the time the MJO spent in the warm phases as well. 

Many of these outcomes were the very opposite of what was forecasted by various weather pros and private mets as well.  

This is interesting though from Judah that early indications seem to point to a weak PV early on .

Same thing happened last Fall. But the killer many thought was the SSWE and the weak Nino and such. 

Maybe this winter other factors will be the drivers of the pattern,

Will be an almost impossible winter to forecast from a seasonal view point. Trust no forecast you hear. You could even make the argument that due to increasing global wamth using pre 2000 analogs are useless. 

 

 

 The PV should start to form in the coming days and weeks.  Based on the Paul Newman’s website https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html the PV looks to be weaker than normal out of the gate. This may be related to the weak PV last May associated with the Final Warming or the nearly continuous high latitude summer blocking.  To be honest I am not sure how significant a weak start to the PV is for the remainder of the PV season, but at least for now I expect an interesting upcoming PV season.

There was a paper that received some publicity how low Arctic sea ice does not favor colder mid-latitude winters while I was on vacation.  I haven’t had a chance to read the paper yet but maybe I will share some of my own thoughts in an upcoming blog.

 

 

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SH very interesting indeed  , wonder the implications for the NH winter and the solar min 

SH may have a chance at only the second all time Major SWE  - last time and only time was back in 2002   -  hmmm, very interesting i

 

 

  

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11 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Judah Cohen is about as useful and reliable as JB and DT.

He does post some interesting data at times but I learned not to totally trust some of his forecasts .... It has already been proven that the SAI and even total North America snowcover and depth do not provide reliable indications of the upcoming winter.        

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Latest runs of the CFS now look remarkably similar to the last run of the CanSIPS.. HL blocking galore for Jan and Feb.

Still waiting for the new edition of the CanSIPS. Probably will look much different lol.

December is pretty ugly, but January looks dirty (as in good dirty). February ain't half-bad, either.

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16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

December is pretty ugly, but January looks dirty (as in good dirty). February ain't half-bad, either.

Yeah not sure how it goes from that Dec look to what it has for Jan. Complete flip up top.

Ofc its the CFS- give it a few days and it will offer up something else.

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7 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The QBO is heading in the right direction. 30 mb index dropped from 14.36 in June to 10.96 in July to now 9.97 for August. Hopefully it keeps moving towards neutral as we get deeper into fall.

eta- thanks to @mitchnick for pointing out a flaw in the data I originally posted. Fixed now.

Mitch is back?.

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