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Is next winter looking like a disaster?


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We will see how the warm pool south of Alaska progresses into the fall and winter, but it was certainly quite warm in July:

aWM7TFmyAF.png.aeafc5090b77768c511bfa44830bac12.png

Let's say that the warm pool doesn't migrate and/or lessen over the coming months, 2013-14 could be a semi-decent analog for the PDO/EPO region specifically:

lvc8DGdC1D.png.a6ed4da5e6fe10743fa765430f5cfdde.png

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49 minutes ago, Newman said:

We will see how the warm pool south of Alaska progresses into the fall and winter, but it was certainly quite warm in July:

 

Let's say that the warm pool doesn't migrate and/or lessen over the coming months, 2013-14 could be a semi-decent analog for the PDO/EPO region specifically:

 

PDO is important. It does look like the Pacific pattern is starting to change though. 

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18 hours ago, poolz1 said:

If we have some semblance of the SSTs posted above leading into late fall I would have a pretty good feeling....regardless of the technical enso classification.
I
IMO, the one thing that really faked us out last winter (and all the climate models) was the SOI and MJO. The lack of response by the atmosphere to the SST was very frustrating. I recall reading late in the winter that things had finally coupled but by then it was too late. Looking at the image above it looks like trop forcing would be biased in the areas we want.

Long way to go and sst can warm/cool pretty dramatically over the next 3/4 months.

Besides the atmosphere and ocean coupling, the other issue was the basin wide warm SSTs in the Pac. Seemed to cause a less well defined area of tropical forcing. 

Also as you mentioned, the record MJO amplitude in phases that no one forecasted. WeatherBell stated would be in the cold and snowy phases, sorry WeatherBell you get a F minus   

Pioneer model you get a D minus

I hope no one forecasts a cold and snowy winter here based on the "warm blob " .  As for the PDO and the warm blob, that can change on a dime.

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Besides the atmosphere and ocean coupling, the other issue was the basin wide warm SSTs in the Pac. Seemed to cause a less well defined area of tropical forcing. 

Also as you mentioned, the record MJO amplitude in phases that no one forecasted. WeatherBell stated would be in the cold and snowy phases, sorry WeatherBell you get a F minus   

Pioneer model you get a D minus

I hope no one forecasts a cold and snowy winter here based on the "warm blob " .  As for the PDO and the warm blob, that can change on a dime.

 

Excluding the far western highlands, no one should ever predict a cold and snowy winter in this region.

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

East based Nina seems to be developing. cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

East based Nina’s aren’t as bad as west.  They are much colder. Sometimes too dry though. When we do get a decent Nina they are almost always ease based though. Seems no matter the phase we want warmer waters in the central pac to center whatever forcing there is. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

East based Nina’s aren’t as bad as west.  They are much colder. Sometimes too dry though. When we do get a decent Nina they are almost always ease based though. Seems no matter the phase we want warmer waters in the central pac to center whatever forcing there is. 

Uh...does "decent nina" even belong in our vocabulary? Lol When other than 1995-96 did that ever happen? I was under the impression that Nina was just plain bad regardless of type!

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8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hope that ain't the case and we can just stay neutral...would be a shame to waste low solar on a nina! (And on another note, was 2009-10 really the last mod Niño we had? Mercy...do they just not happen but once or twice a decade?)

Well there's a whole lot of other factors come into play.. last year was almost a mod nino but the pacific jet was firehose all winter long which screwed us loose. I'm also worried about it being cold but too dry. If those CP waters can warm up a little more, i'd be sold on a pretty decent winter this year.

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23 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Well there's a whole lot of other factors come into play.. last year was almost a mod nino but the pacific jet was firehose all winter long which screwed us loose. I'm also worried about it being cold but too dry. If those CP waters can warm up a little more, i'd be sold on a pretty decent winter this year.

Even recently,  I think last  month,  we once again set a new record for the Pac jet. Not sure when it will calm down. 

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CFS has not been hating us for the upcoming winter. Been pretty consistent with a big EPO ridge and suggestive of cold air intrusions into the eastern half of the US. Lately it has trended to a neutral looking NAO, possibly an east based -NAO, for Dec and Jan, and then for Feb it does this..

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_6.thumb.png.cc9f341a636d4541246195d69c666f49.png

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hope that doesn't become some new normal...So it's been going and going since last winter?

You have some interesting options on the table....

Do we have a positive PDO. Does it last into the winter ....

What are the consequences of the dramatic sea ice melting and recent summer of warm season blocking ..... do we get the winter -NAO 

Does the Nino persists ( granted some have stated it is gone already others argue the fact ) and where do we get the tropical forcing this winter ..... 

Does NH blocking flourish in the winter with a back drop of neurtral Pac SSTs 

What will be the effect of the continued qiuet sun and the continuation of the solar decline as we eventually hit the bottom of the  solar minimum.....

Some feel based on the Pac SST and SSTs in the NH in general indicate a 1993 Brr...... winter. What about  moisture then, without a Nino would it be dry?  Or do we go to a stormy winter with frequent snows based on an active storm tracks and coastals ?    

A lot to consider as we look towards the winter.

Bottom line be very careful and never trust the seasonals. Even analogs may not be as effective as we are in a changing climate here, and what worked as a analog in the 1960s probaly would not work today. 

 

  

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1 hour ago, frd said:

You have some interesting options on the table....

Do we have a positive PDO. Does it last into the winter ....

What are the consequences of the dramatic sea ice melting and recent summer of warm season blocking ..... do we get the winter -NAO 

Does the Nino persists ( granted some have stated it is gone already others argue the fact ) and where do we get the tropical forcing this winter ..... 

Does NH blocking flourish in the winter with a back drop of neurtral Pac SSTs 

What will be the effect of the continued qiuet sun and the continuation of the solar decline as we eventually hit the bottom or the  solar minimum.....

Some feel based on the Pac SST and SSTs in the NH in general indicate a 1993 Brr...... winter. What about  moisture then, without a Nino would it be dry?  Or do we go to a stormy winter with frequent snows based on an active storm tracks and coastals ?    

A lot to consider as we look towards the winter.

Bottom line be very careful and never trust the seasonals. Even analogs may not be as effective as we are in a changing climate here, and what worked as a analog in the 1960s probaly would not work today. 

 

  

Ohhh trust me...I lost trust in long range stuff like that after last season, lol Absolutely useless! Ya think we're heading into an unprecedented climate era where meteorology is gonna be less accurate? Amateur question, but I'm just curious...people both professional and amateur alike were so far off their game, that I'm wondering if this is gonna continue. For once I'd like one winter that doesn't have so much of "I don't know why it's doing/not doing this"...

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3 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

Lots went with that type of forecast in 2009/2010 and they were spot on. Now that was a NINO.Are NINO's easier to interpret in the long range?

Well, the stronger Nino events are less wishy washy and are easier to forecast in the long range . Weaker events are more prone to less accurate forecasts due to the Nino event possibly weakening in the heart of winter. ( even though some will tell you there is a lag effect and a weakening may not mean much. I disagree with that line of thinking )

When you ask most here in the forum the type/strength of Nino is key to the likelyhood of above normal winter snowfall. 

Weaker Nino events are not that great. Stronger Ninos raise the  bar and can yield bigger exceptional snowfall events. Moderate Nino seem to be the best indicator of the potential for above normal climo snowfall in the Mid Atlantic , or to be even more specific maybe moderate to strong and West Based. 

I  believe Matt and Ian once stated you roll the dice with a  Strong Nino,  but that can support MECS and even HECS . You could get 75 % of more of a season's snowfall from that type of event. 

Example the 30 inch snowfall in the winter of 2016 in a otherwise pathetic snowfall season in this area.    

 

 

 

  

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6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CFS has not been hating us for the upcoming winter. Been pretty consistent with a big EPO ridge and suggestive of cold air intrusions into the eastern half of the US. Lately it has trended to a neutral looking NAO, possibly an east based -NAO, for Dec and Jan, and then for Feb it does this..

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_6.thumb.png.cc9f341a636d4541246195d69c666f49.png

 

1993 being talked about by some mets as a upcoming analog . And no, not JB. I dont follow JB anymore . 

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

1993 being talked about by some mets as a upcoming analog . And no, not JB. I dont follow JB anymore . 

 

 

Used to follow him religiously years ago (1996 through early 2000's). Now I only occasionally glance at JB's articles when I have weatherbell during the winter. If you can get past his hype and his tendency to stick with his forecast until they are dead and buried then he is well worth reading. He is very knowledgeable and I learned quite a bit from him as a newbie especially when it comes to winter time weather. 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Well, the stronger Nino events are less wishy washy and are easier to forecast in the long range . Weaker events are more prone to less accurate forecasts due to the Nino event possibly weakening in the heart of winter. ( even though some will tell you there is a lag effect and a weakening may not mean much. I disagree with that line of thinking )

When you ask most here in the forum the type/strength of Nino is key to the likelyhood of above normal winter snowfall. 

Weaker Nino events are not that great. Stronger Ninos raise the  bar and can yield bigger exceptional snowfall events. Moderate Nino seem to be the best indicator of the potential for above normal climo snowfall in the Mid Atlantic , or to be even more specific maybe moderate to strong and West Based. 

I  believe Matt and Ian once stated you roll the dice with a  Strong Nino,  but that can support MECS and even HECS . You could get 75 % of more of a season's snowfall from that type of event. 

Example the 30 inch snowfall in the winter of 2016 in a otherwise pathetic snowfall season in this area.    

 

 

 

  

Ninos come in many flavors, and can certainly fail(like last winter for many) or can be on the stronger side and torchy like 2015-16. The top indicator for cold and snow for the greater DC region is a sustained -AO through the winter months. Doesn't guarantee anything, and does not necessarily correlate to "big" winter storms, but it usually brings the anomalous cold, and increases the probability of snow events overall for the lower elevations of mid atlantic.

Ofc the trifecta of -AO/-NAO and a moderate Nino is ideal, but rare.

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48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ninos come in many flavors, and can certainly fail(like last winter for many) or can be on the stronger side and torchy like 2015-16. The top indicator for cold and snow for the greater DC region is a sustained -AO through the winter months. Doesn't guarantee anything, and does not necessarily correlate to "big" winter storms, but it usually brings the anomalous cold, and increases the probability of snow events overall for the lower elevations of mid atlantic.

Ofc the trifecta of -AO/-NAO and a moderate Nino is ideal, but rare.

I'd like to know just how many times we've seen that in our history. Obviously 2009-10 was one time...but were there any others?

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd like to know just how many times we've seen that in our history. Obviously 2009-10 was one time...but were there any others?

Maybe 02 - 03 

During the 1960's there were some good winters with blocking , but not sure about the Pac during that decade. 

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