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Is next winter looking like a disaster?


Ji
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Short answer is yes. More like non-existent aside from sun angle changes. Although the aggressive warming near AK has caught my attention. It could throw a wrench into my prediction. I mean look at that insanity. There's like a 500,000 sq mile area of 7 C+ ocean anomalies.

We are profoundly f***.

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5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It looks like they are using +NAO repetition. 

Posted only for entertainment value. 

Anything can happen,  and I sure do not trust the Euro. Actually,  I do not and will not trust any type of winter forecast this year, even those that will come out in December because today we are in a new regime in my opinion, and analogs can not really be used effectively .

Also,  IMHO things are so dynamic even the best seasoanl models will not be able to generate a seasonal forecast any better than just going with simple climo.    

Could be super warm winter or a very cold and snowy winter. Only after the fact will we know. 

 

 

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On 7/18/2019 at 1:17 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

-QBO/El Nino is ideal. Looks like we'll switch in November. lol

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ?  If so, no guarantee of a change.   

Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall.   

Seems to be more at play here.  So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome.  

I rather have a  +PDO, favorable PAC , etc. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ?  If so, no guarantee of a change.   

Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall.   

Seems to be more at play here.  So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome.  

I rather have a  +PDO, favorable PAC , etc. 

 

 

 

The current solar cycle should be at or close to minimum heading into winter, so there's that!

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